Preview: ILLINI Wrestling at Iowa

 

The Big Ten Conference dual season starts with a bang for the ILLINI, as they hit the road to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City on Friday. That's just enough time to heal up a few of the bruises suffered by the respective teams at the Midlands and Soldier Salute tournaments. But will it be enough time to heal all of the wounds....

Spencer Lee seemed upset after pinning his heir apparent Drake Ayala at the Soldier Salute. Did he expect to receive a forfeit like a King expects to receive the virginity of any woman in the kingdom before she marries her betrothed? Are they back to shooting guns at each other in Iowa? 

According to Ayala's mom, the two apparently don't get along and don't practice together. 

I bring this up not as some kind of negative recruiting, and not as a rumor-monger, no sir, that's not how I roll, but only to question Iowa's psyche before the upcoming dual. Will they put it in the past, or will tensions remain boiling under the surface? I'm just asking questions. 

WHAT:  The ILLINI vs Iowa Dual

WHEN:  Friday, January 6 at 7:00 pm (Central) 

WHERE:  Stupid Carver Hawkeye Arena

WHO:  A fired-up ILLINI squad versus our dull-witted cousins to the West

TV/STREAMING: BIG+ (subscription service); Iowa will stream audio on YouTube here. 

TICKETS: Stub Hub (from $11 to $25)

WHY WE HATE IOWA

The people are awful. From the minute you smell them two rooms away to the day or two later when the odor dissipates, their presence is unpleasant in every respect. It is like every crackpot in ILLINOIS was magically transported two hundred miles West. 

And Geography and Culture? The only feature in the entire state is that there are no features! ILLINOIS is home to Chicago, deep dish pizza, the Bears and Bulls and White Sox and Cubs, rolling hills in the South and North and great rivers. Iowa features a barren landscape. It is Chernobyl with corn. 

A DAY IN HISTORY

It was Friday, January 28, 2005. 

The number one song on the charts was Let Me Love You by Mario. In the theater, moviegoers were flocking to see the thriller Hide and Seek, starring Robert De Niro and Dakota Fanning. It made over seven million dollars at the box office that day. 

If you were a kid, you got creepy Duel Masters figures or trading cards in your McDonald's Happy Meal. 

On an even happier note, the #2 University of ILLINOIS wrestling team met the #9 Iowa Hawkeyes in a dual at Huff Hall in front of 3,573 very happy fans. After the ILLINI romped to a 25-7 win, FightingILLINI.com used words like "dominate" and "routing" and "magic" to describe what had just happened. Anton Dietzen started off the event with a big upset over #5 Ty Eustice, and you can see what happened after that:

University of Illinois vs. University of Iowa
Friday, January 28, 2005
Attendance:  3,573 (school record)

149: #16 Anton Dietzen dec. #5 Ty Eustice (Iowa), 3-2	        3-0
157:  #2 Alex Tirapelle dec. #7 Joe Johnston (Iowa), 7-5	6-0
165:  #4 Mark Perry (Iowa) maj. dec. Cal Ferry (ILL), 12-2	6-4
174:  #5 Pete Friedl (ILL) dec. Luke Lofthouse (Iowa), 12-5	9-4
184:  #3 Brian Glynn (ILL) dec. #5 Paul Bradley (Iowa), 2-1	12-4
197:  #13 Tyrone Byrd (ILL) dec. Adam Fellers (Iowa), 3-0	15-4
Hwt: #7 Matt Fields (Iowa) dec. #14 Mike Behnke (ILL), 6-3	15-7
125: #2 Kyle Ott (ILL) maj. dec. Charlie Falck (Iowa), 14-6	19-7
133: #4 Mark Jayne (ILL) dec. #14 Mario Galanakis (Iowa), 7-5	22-7
141: Cassio Pero (ILL) dec. #11 Alex Tsirtsis (Iowa), 4-3	25-7

THE TEAMS

ILLINOIS is coming off a very successful and entertaining Midlands tournament, where they placed fifth with eight scoring wrestlers. The question is whether the ILLINI will have wrestlers at 125 and 157 for this dual. The Orange and Blue are 2-2 on the year so far with wins over Buffalo (28-9) and Chattanooga (32-9) and losses to NC State (12-27) and Pitt (6-30). 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 30-6 win for the bad guys with ILLINI victories coming from Lucas Byrd and Edmond Ruth. 

Iowa is 7-0 with dual wins over Sacred Heart (35-6), Army (28-13), Iowa State (18-15), Buffalo (35-7), Penn (26-11), California Baptist (42-3) and Chattanooga (27-12). They are coming off that controversial win at the Soldier Salute. Since their latest dual was against Chattanooga, and the Mocs are a common opponent with the ILLINI, let's look at that box score:

#2 Iowa 27, Chattanooga 12

125 –Logan Ashton (UTC) dec. Charles Matthews (UI), 1-0
133 – #27 Brayden Palmer (UTC) dec. Cullan Schriever (UI), 3-1 (SV1)
141 – #2 Real Woods (UI) tech fall Dayne Dalrymple (UTC), 16-0
149 – #27 Noah Castillo (UTC) dec. Joel Jesuroga (UI), 3-2 (TB1)
157 – #14 Cobe Siebrecht (UI) dec. Lincoln Heck (UTC), 6-2
165 – #14 Patrick Kennedy (UI) tech fall Jackson Hurst (UTC), 23-8
174 – #16 Rocky Jordan (UTC) dec. #14 Nelson Brands (UI), 3-1
184 – #8 Abe Assad (UI) major dec. #31 Matthew Waddell (UTC), 14-4
197 – #6 Jacob Warner (UI) major dec. Jake Boyd (UTC), 10-1
285 – #3 Tony Cassioppi (UI) pinned Logan Andrew (UTC), 1:15

THE WRESTLERS

125.  MAXIMO RENTERIA (#80, 3-3) vs. SPENCER LEE (#1, 5-0).

There is actually some suspense involved with this matchup, mostly dealing with the question of whether it will happen. The ILLINI had zero wrestlers at this weight make the trip to the Midlands, while Iowa has seen Spencer wrestle in one out of seven duals so far. This match is in conference, and there is no travel involved, so I think the likelihood of a Lee sighting is slightly higher. 

On the other hand, he may want to take a week away from competition to see where his knees are. He wrestled four live matches in two days for the first time in a long time. Those knees have to ache a little. 

Other possibilities for the ILLINI include #56 Justin Cardani, if healthy, or giving #160 Sammie Hayes one of his freebies during a redshirt season. Iowa has started #224 Aidan Harris four times, #247 Charles Matthews twice, and of course, Spencer once. Spencer Lee has the only dual win for the Hawkeyes at 125. 

This one is easy to predict. The ILLINI win against anybody not named Spencer. 

133.  LUCAS BYRD (#6, 14-3) vs. CULLAN SCHRIEVER (#51, 12-3). 

I'll carry my anger over the Byrd-Colaioccio match for the rest of my life, much like the Poeta-Churella fiasco haunts my every waking hour.  Lucky for ILLINI fans, both Byrd and Poeta recovered quickly and went on to achieve remarkable things. 

Lucas rebounded with a big 8-1 win over the #2 seed Joe Heilmann of Rutgers, then repeated a victory over ASU's Julian Chlebove in the third-place match, riding him out over an entire period. 

The ILLINI beat Schriever at the dual last season 5-0. 

This year, the Hawkeye has losses to Chattanooga's Brayden Palmer in SV, to Penn's Colaiocco by six, and to Ramazan Attasauov of Iowa State. Byrd is 11-5 against common opponents (most of that to DeSanto who only wrestled Schriever once), while the Hawk is 1-8. 

The prediction on this one is that Lucas Byrd comes out fired up and revenges his loss against DeSanto in the dual two year's ago at Carver with a big win over Schriever. Wrestlestat.com prognosticates a 9-3 win for the ILLINI. Byrd is and always will be the Wyrd.

141.  DANNY PUCINO (#71, 8-5) vs. REAL WOODS (#2, 6-0). 

Four wins and a podium finish at the Midlands, including two top-forty triumphs, will help Danny Pucino become a believer. He will need all of that belief as he faces ILLINOIS schoolboy Real Woods. Woods didn't hit the mats this season until the Cyclone dual, where he beat freshman phenom Casey Swiderski 3-2. Since then, he's had five easy wins over no-names. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a seven-point win for the fine fellow who consistently makes bad college choices. You can bet that Danny Pucino will do at least one interesting thing during this match, and if it works, the final score could be interesting. 

149.  JAKE HARRIER (#182, 3-8) vs. MAX MURIN (#11, 10-1). 

Kevon Davenport (#53, 6-7) was a no show at Midlands, even though he really needed to be there to stack up some wins before conference season started, the way Pucino and Connell did. He had been the starter earlier this season, but Harrier is listed above because he actually wrestled at Midlands. 

Murin has battled three wrestlers with a pulse. He's 2-1 against them with wins over teammate Caleb Rathjen and a very good Doug Zapf from Penn. His loss is to Iowa State's Paniro Johnson in sudden victory. 

According to the wrestlestat.com algorithm, Murin wins a healthy decision against Kevon Davenport and a major over Jake Harrier. 

157.  LUKE ODOM (#153, 4-6) vs. COBE SIEBRECHT (#14, 6-0). 

The ILLINI did not have a wrestler at 157 show up at the Midlands. Odom and Anthony Federico (#76, 5-7) have both had two matches in the four ILLINI duals so far this year. So, there's no telling who wrestles for the Orange and Blue in this match. I put Luke Odom in the sub-heading because he did get one of the few wins against Iowa in the last dual at Carver. It was against a Hawkeye backup, but it was a nice win. 

It comes as a surprise to me that this is Cobe Siebrecht's fourth year at Iowa. He wrestled at 149 his previous three years and has a pretty nice 23-5 career mark. He didn't make an appearance at the Soldier Salute, so there's no telling if he'll be ready to wrestle in this dual. Siebrecht has a couple nice dual wins for the Hawks including a pin of Penn's #16 Anthony Artalona and a major over #43 Jason Kraisser of Iowa State. 

In the event that Siebrecht can't wrestle, it seems that Caleb Rathjen (#61, 6-3) would get the call. 

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165.  DANNY BRAUNAGEL (#15, 15-3) vs. PATRICK KENNEDY (#12, 9-1).

This will be one of your marquee matches at the dual. 

Braunagel is coming off a bronze medal at Midlands, while Kennedy won the Soldier Salute, although the best wrestler he faced was ranked by wrestlestat.com at #72. Brawny's only loss at Midlands was by a 4-6 score to Quincy Monday, which is, I think, comparable to Kennedy's lone loss of the year, which was to David Carr of Iowa State by a 9-4 count. 

The Brawlnagel is 3-4 against common opponents, while Kennedy is 3-1. The big difference is that the ILLINI had to wrestle Marinelli three times, while Kennedy lost to his teammate only once. The other difference is that Little Brawny got a recent win over highly-ranked Peyton Hall at Midlands, while Kennedy lost to him in sudden victory last year. 

I think we can expect a brawl in this one. Home crowd and sleeping in his own bed and Carver refs favor the Hawkeye, but the ILLINI has experience in his favor. Although Kennedy has been at Iowa for three years now, this will only be his second B1G dual. This will be the ILLINI's twenty-second conference dual match. 

174.  EDMOND RUTH (#15, 18-1) vs. NELSON BRANDS (#19, 2-1).

Another marque matchup happens at 174 between Ruth and Brands. That is, if Brands can wrestle. He was a no-show at Soldier Salute and has wrestled sparingly this year. Tommy John surgery on his elbow and surgery for a broken collar bone from an off-season motorcycle accident had something to do with that. The Hawkeye's loss this year came 1-3 to Rocky Jordan of Chattanooga. It was Edmond Ruth who came out on top of Jordan in the dual by the score of 5-2. 

From what I've seen of his career--admittedly not that much--Brands relies heavily on reshots and his quickness. Edmond Ruth doesn't seem to take bad shots, and he is quick himself. Brands is 0-1 in his career at Carver against ILLINI, having lost to Zac Braunagel in sudden victory a couple of years ago.      

Wrestlestat.com predicts a close 5-4 win for the ILLINI. 

184.  DYLAN CONNELL (#54, 12-9) vs. ABE ASSAD (#12, 10-1). 

This could be a sneaky marque matchup. Dylan really seemed to turn a corner at the Midlands with his fifth-place finish. Then, there's the fact that he took the Midlands champ into sudden victory--a guy who beat him by seven points earlier this season. 

Assad, an ILLINOIS schoolboy himself, has had much success against ILLINI wrestlers so far in his career. He won Soldier Salute, but his best opponent is ranked #38 by wrestlestat.com. His lone loss on the season was by one point to AA Marcus Coleman, and that's nothing to be ashamed of. 

Connell is 2-6 versus the same guys who Assad has a 4-3 record against. Wrestlestat.com predicts a 9-4 win for the bad guy. 

197.  ZAC BRAUNAGEL (#16, 13-3) vs. JACOB WARNER (#6, 9-1).

The three-time AA and one-time finalist from Iowa is the subject of our third marque matchup. Braunagel was on fire at the Midlands beating some tough guys who were also huge. Warner isn't quite as big as Luke Stout or Braxton Amos, though he is quicker when he explodes, more technical at folkstyle and just as strong. 

Warner, another ILLINOIS schoolboy who made a bad college decision, has one loss by one point to Iowa State's Yonger Bastida this season. He also has an 11-10 win over a Cole Urbas who finished seventh at Midlands. Look for the Brawlnagel to force maximum exertion from Warner. 

I think there'll be a lot of sweat and brawl in this one. Wrestlestat is going with a 7-4 win for the Hawkeye who also has an 11-3 to 5-6 advantage against common opposition. 

285.  MATT WROBLEWSKI (#63, 10-7) vs. TONY CASSIOPPI (#3, 11-0). 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a tech fall for another ILLINOIS schoolboy who made a disastrous college decision. I predict that WroboCop shoots one of his long-range double-legs that is really a ruse to get to a quick upper-body over-under tie that he explodes into a hip toss, leaving Skinny Cass exhausted after fighting off his back for the rest of the first period. 

I guess we'll have to wait to see who's right. 

CONCLUSION

Should Spencer Lee wrestle, Iowa will be able to count on bonus points at 125 and 285. At least one bonus point seems likely for the Hawkeyes at 157. It will be a dogfight for the ILLINI to avoid a bonus point at 141. 

Should Spencer Lee not wrestle, the ILLINI will expect bonus points at 125. They will also be heavily favored at 133 and a solid favorite at 174. Iowa will be favored at 149 and 184, and we'll have scraps at 165 and 197. 

ILLINOIS has to drive over to Iowa for the dual, wrestle, then get back home and wait for Wisconsin in two days. Iowa has a more favorable schedule, wrestling at home against the ILLINI, then hitting the road for Purdue two days later.