The Greatest Big Ten Tournament Preview Ever (part two)

For part one of the preview--containing analyses of 125 through 141--please click here. 

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT TRIVIA

1.  If you go to Wikipedia and type in "Big Ten Wrestling Tournament," you get jack squat. Well, there's actually a redirection page that lists twelve entries showing twelve Big Ten wrestling teams. Two teams are missing from that list. Can you tell me which two? Hint: One of the missing teams has a girl's name. 

2.  How many times has ILLINOIS won the Big Ten Wrestling Tournament? Hint: The school has won it more than seventeen times but less than nineteen times.  

CHRISTIAN KANZLER -- 149

Here is the lineup of tough guys that Christian will have to beat at 149 in the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATIONS.  I think the Intermat rankings look pretty good. The question is what the Big Ten coaches do with Kanen Storr. He's just 1-1 in conference duals and has only ten matches on the year. That has a direct impact on Kanzler, as he and Blockhus and Storr will be vying for those eight through nine seeds. 

There could be from nine to ten pre-allocated qualification spots at this weight. Max Murin doesn't have enough matches to be considered for RPI, but he has enough for winning percentage and Coach's Ranking. He will meet those two criteria. Kanen Storr will not. He doesn't have the fifteen matches needed for an RPI, and he doesn't have a good enough winning percentage. The question is whether Graham Rooks will have the necessary RPI and Coach's Ranking. 

FUN FACT.  Christian Kanzler has come a long way and developed into a very good wrestler. Just ask the guys he beat who are two-time NCAA qualifiers: Michael Blockhus and Graham Rooks. Kanzler finished 6th in the IHSA 3A tournament at 126. He was a two-time NJCAA All American, finishing as a runner-up in 2018 for Lincoln College. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This weight class has it all! You've got sneaky defensive specialists and cradlers like Sasso, big move aficionados like Lovett and Gomez, brawlers such as Murin and Thomas, as well as crafty veterans like Storr, Kanzler, Blockhus and Rooks. Finally, there's the tiny, young phenom in Bartlett. 

Sammy Sasso is the obvious favorite, but not an overwhelming one. He will likely have a tough semifinal match against Max Murin, who he beat 3-2 in the dual, then a final against one of the dangerous guys: Gomez or Lovett. 

Sasso just keeps winning, though, so he is my pick. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Christian Kanzler likely faces Minnesota's Michael Blockhus in his first match. I think they're the solid eight and nine seeds. That could be disrupted depending on where the coaches put Kanen Storr. I think you have to reward the guys who earned a pre-allocation spot for the conference first, however, and that would leave Storr as the ten seed. 

In their dual matchup, Christian hit the most beautiful Tomoe Nage for six against Blockhus. The ILLINI went on to win the match 13-8. If he gets that win, in the next round, Kanzler would face Sasso. 

That almost certainly means he'll need a run in the consolations. I think the kid in the Orange and Blue singlet is safely in the tournament as long as he wins a match or two in the conference tournament. Since they'll likely have one of those 9th-place brackets, that'll give Christian a chance at meeting up with some guys he should ragdoll. 

And he might surprise with a nice podium finish! He has really jumped levels this year, and his confidence has to be at an all-time high. 

JOE ROBERTS -- 157

Here are the list of wrestlers at 157 who will be at the Big Ten Tournament barring injury or illness:

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This year 157 in the B1G is a big mess, and it's ugly and fat. It's a big, fat ugly mess. Minnesota's Brayton Lee is out with an injury, so the conference loses a pre-allocation qualifying spot. Brady Berge of Penn State drops down, and he has only had two matches at 157, wasting an auto-qualifier at 165. 

Deakin is the favorite, but he's 2-2 versus Iowa's Kaleb Young. He's wrestled Nebraska's Peyton Robb only once, and that was a two-pointer. Will Lewan faced Deakin twice and kept it to within three once. Kendall Coleman has faced the Mildcat about five times and been pinned about three times. 

Compared to wrestlers across the NCAA, this has to be the worst weight in conference in terms of depth. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  This weight is in turmoil, and other than Deakin probably winning, it could be loaded with surprises. Joe Roberts has improved over the course of the year and has looked especially sharp in his last four matches. 

With the dearth of automatic qualifying spots at this weight, Joe will probably need to have two big upsets to qualify for the NCAA tournament. 

I have Joe as the 12th seed, but he could slide further down. That means his first-round match will likely be against either Lewan, Robb or Coleman. Roberts has faced Coleman and Peyton Robb already, losing matches by three points and one point respectively. In fact, Joe's last match was against the Cornhusker, and he looked really good in that very close one-point loss. So, there's a chance!

 

DANNY BRAUNAGEL -- 165

These are the wrestlers and their likely seeds that we should look for at 165 at the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATION.  I would have Michigan State's Caleb Fish ahead of Nebraska's Wilson. Give credit to the Cornhusker for beating Amine, though, so it is a close call. I would also put Purdue's Lohrey ahead of Minnesota's Cael Carlson because of the better conference dual record. The Coach's rankings might get these right, and we won't have to worry about it. 

Most significantly, I hope the Coaches aren't buying this Edsell crap. He has four wins in duals, but they're all basically worthless. I would deviate from the rankings there by putting Brawlnagel and Caleb Fish ahead of him. (See "Fun Fact" below). 

FUN FACT.  Creighton Edsell of Penn State was undefeated in conference duals! FACT. The untold story is that he wrestled only backups whose combined record is 12-36. FACT. Their Wrestlestat.com rankings are #73, #133, #146 and #200. FACT. Now, wasn't that fun? 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  Marinelli has been a hammer up to the NCAA tournament every year. However, he would have to beat both Hamiti and Kharchla to win the B1G tournament this season, and I don't think he does it. With the easier semifinal, Kharchla has the better prospects.  

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  As a likely #5 or #6 seed, Little Brawny will probably face either Northwestern's David Ferrante or Rutgers' Andrew Clark in the first round. He beat both of them this year in duals, although he lost to Ferrante at an open. It is important for the ILLINI coaches to fight for that fifth seed for Danny, as the sixth seed has Hamiti in the quarterfinals, then Marinelli, then Kharchla. 

The fifth seed, on the other hand, would face Amine in the quarterfinals, then Kharchla, then the winner of Marinelli/Hamiti. That saves you from having to go through one of the hot wrestlers. Of course, it could be that Danny Braunagel will be the hot wrestler that week!