PREVIEW: The ILLINI versus OSU
WHAT: ILLINI vs. Ohio State Wrestling Dual
WHEN: Friday, January 10 at 7:00 pm (Central)
WHERE: Huff Hall, Champaign, ILLINOIS
TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription service)
SPECIAL: It is an "Orange Out." Wear Orange.
TICKETS: Admission is FREE!
Question: Who is this?
A DAY IN HISTORY
It is February 18, 2007.
Beyoncé and Nelly Furtado are #1 and #2 on the Hot 100 Billboard charts. Ghost Rider is raking in the dough as the #1 box office hit, but theater audiences are leaving unimpressed. It has a 28% on the Tomatometer at Rotten Tomatoes.
The folks at home aren't doing much better. Your stupid little sister just got a video game called Karaoke Revolution: American Idol. That's right, a guitar hero for bad voices and terrible songs.
It is worse than you thought imaginable.
Have no fear! The entertainment and drama are happening right now in Huff Hall, as the 6th-ranked ILLINI seek to add another victory to their nine-match winning streak over Ohio State. But the circumstances are dire. The Buckeyes take an early 10-6 lead as the ILLINI forfeit at 125.
It's getting worse.
With just two matches left, the good guys are now trailing 12-18. Suddenly #14-ranked Roger Smith-Bergsrud upsets his #10-ranked Buckeye opponent. And just now, unranked Senior Matt Winterhalter, in his last dual match for the ILLINI, beats his OSU opponent 10-0 grasping that one bonus point that gives the home crowd a 19-18 victory and a 10th straight win over an Ohio State University team!
Here's a link to the write-up at FightingILLINI.com, and here's the box score:
Illinois 19, Ohio St. 18 Huff Hall // Champaign, Ill. Attendance: 1097184: #3 Mike Pucillo (OSU) maj. dec. #16 John Dergo (ILL), 17-5 (0-4) 197: #12 Patrick Bond (ILL) dec. #6 J.D. Bergman (OSU), 6-5 (3-4) Hwt: John Wise (ILL) dec. Corey Morrison (OSU), 2-1 (6-4) 125: Will Livingston (OSU) win by forfeit (6-10) 133: #8 Jimmy Kennedy (ILL) dec. #17 T.J. Enright (OSU), 4-3 (9-10) 141: #12 Cassio Pero (ILL) dec. J Jaggers (OSU), 11-4 (12-10) 149: #13 Lance Palmer (OSU) maj. dec. Dan Zeman (ILL), 14-5 (12-14) 157: Jason Johnstone (OSU) maj. dec. Clint Arlis (ILL), 8-0 (12-18) 165: #14 Roger Smith-Bergsrud (ILL) dec. #10 Chris Vondruska (OSU), 3-1 (15-18) 174: Matt Winterhalter (ILL) maj. dec. Tommy Priestley (OSU), 10-0 (19-18)
THE TEAMS
The ILLINI are 6-0 on the season with wins over SIUE (41-3), Binghamton (30-10), Arizona State (37-6), Missouri (23-14), North Carolina (24-14) and Indiana (34-3). The Orange and Blue have racked up 189 team points to their opponents' 50.
Ohio State is 8-0 so far. They have beaten Chattanooga (36-6), Edinboro (40-4), Hofstra (38-6), Pitt (20-17), UNC 23-11, Lock Haven (36-6), Iowa State (29-10), and just yesterday, Oregon State (40-3). As the Oregon State match is most recent, and it saw some lineup maneuvers from the Buckeyes, let's look at the Beaver box score:
Lineup vs. the Beavers
| Wt. | No. 5 Ohio State vs. Oregon State | OSU | ORE ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | No. 13 Maximo Renteria (ORE ST) def. No. 6 Brendan McCrone (OSU) | D, 6-5 | 0 | 3 |
| 133 | No. 9 Nic Bouzakis (OSU) def. Damion Elliott (ORE ST) | MD, 11-3 | 4 | 3 |
| 141 | No. 2 Jesse Mendez (OSU) def. Krayle Stormer (ORE ST) | TF, 17-2 | 9 | 3 |
| 149 | No. 12 Dylan D'Emilio (OSU) def. Ayden Garver (ORE ST) | MD, 18-5 | 13 | 3 |
| 157 | No. 9 Paddy Gallagher (OSU) def. Christopher Hamblin (ORE ST) | D, 6-4 | 16 | 3 |
| 165 | No. 11 Sammy Sasso (OSU) def. Steele Starren (ORE ST) | D, 1-0 | 19 | 3 |
| 174 | No. 11 Carson Kharchla (OSU) def. Sean Harman (ORE ST) | MD, 14-4 | 23 | 3 |
| 184 | No. 14 Ryder Rogotzke (OSU) def. TJ McDonnell (ORE ST) F, 3:51 | 29 | 3 |
| 197 | Seth Shumate (OSU) def. Vaun Halstead (ORE ST) | F, 5:39 | 35 | 3 |
| HWT | No. 7 Nick Feldman (OSU) def. No. 21 Brett Mower (ORE ST) | TF, 23-6 | 40 | 3 |
Don't get too worried, my friends. Half the guys wrestling for Oregon State were backups, and their highest ranked wrestler on Wrestlestat.com, #34 Maximo Renteria, won his match. In fact, the average Wrestlestat.com ranking for the other nine Beaver wrestlers was 109.7777777777778.
Wrestlestat.com has predicted a 26-6 win for the Buckeyes against ILLINOIS, and that seems absolutely nuts to us. The only wins for the ILLINI are supposed to be Kannon Webster and Zac Braunagel. Edmond Ruth, who won in last year's dual in Columbus, is supposed to lose against a much worse opponent. Additionally, the algorithm indicates that Lucas Byrd, Luke Luffman, Braeden Scoles and Danny Brawlnagel will lose.
That's not gonna happen.
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
125. #163 CAELAN RILEY vs. #5 Brendan McCrone. This is either a good time or a bad time for Caelan to wrestle McCrone. The Buckeye is 16-3 on the year, but is coming off an upset loss to Maximo Renteria. Does that spiral him into despair, does he question his abilities, or does he see it as a new challenge? McCrone pinned Renteria earlier in the season, but gave up a 5-6 loss yesterday.
Riley is predicted to give up a tech fall, although the way these guys have done against common opponents suggests that the ILLINI can keep it close. McCrone is a pinner with a 68% bonus percentage this season, and for that reason, the Orange and Blue will take a decision loss, even a major here.
133. #3 LUCAS BYRD vs. #4 Nic Bouzakis. Can the beta version of Lucas Byrd beat Lucas Byrd? We don't think so. Bouzakis is strong, but so is Byrd, and Byrd is also more experienced, tactical and varied in his offense. The ILLINI 2x AA is 9-4 against the same guys who have given Bouzakis a 6-5 record.
Wrestlestat.com's algorithm went haywire in predicting a one-point win for the Buckeye, who has losses to Ben Davino (possible starter here in his home state ILLINOIS) and Zeth Romney. We're feeling a 4-1 win for Byrd is the Wyrd.
141. #16 DANNY PUCINO vs. #1 Jesse Mendez. Almost exactly one year ago, at the dual in Columbus, this was a 12-2 major decision for the Buckeye. He has jumped levels since then, culminating in an NCAA Championship, but so has Pucino. We would like to see the Irish Italian Cyborg from Lockport keep this to a close decision.
Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 9-4 win for the Scarlet and Gray. Danny is 8-1 on the season, while Mendez is 15-0. Their records against common opponents show that Mendez jumped levels much sooner than Pucino: Mendez is 15-1, while Danny is 9-11.
149. #7 KANNON WEBSTER vs. #11 Dylan D'Emilio. Last season in Columbus it was a beautiful cross-ankle pick that earned the win for Kannon against the OSU AA. See the video below, which also shows Edmond Ruth riding the **** out of Rocco Welsh as well as bonus Chris Moore handshake, perhaps the most legendary handshake in all of handshake history.
The score was 4-1 last year.
The Wrestlestat.com algorithm is predicting a closer 7-5 win for the Washington stud. Their common opponents tell a story, with Kannon sporting the better 4-1 record versus a 6-4 mark from the Buckeye.
They have both lost to UNC's Lachlan McNeil recently. Webster's loss came in sudden victory on account of a disputed takedown. (We officially dispute it!). D'Emilio got punished by the Tar Heel 2-8. It has to be noted that the Buckeye is off to a great start this season with an 11-1 record.
157. #43 JASON KRAISSER vs. #19 Paddy Gallagher. The pair have very similar records against common opponents, but Wrestlestat.com is still calling for a 10-5 victory for the Buckeyes here. Gallagher has a nice 10-3 record, and one of those losses was a medical forfeit in a tournament. He has had a history of injuries. Will he want to deal with those Cardiac Kraisser scrambles?
This is going to be our upset special of the match. Thing is, we don't even want to watch it live because of blood pressure issues. Somebody tell us how it turns out.
165. #17 BRAEDEN SCOLES vs. #6 Sammy Sasso. We saw the Buckeye up close at the Midlands last year and cannot believe that poor limping fellow is wrestling D1 this season. He is 6-3 on the year, and although he has two good wins against guys rated #39 and #43, he is not the Sammy Sasso we remember.
That's why we don't think the undervalued Scoles winning this match is an upset. He just needs to keep away from that Sasso cradle, or perhaps they'll get simultaneous cradles and pins? Wrestlestat.com is calling for an 8-5 win for the bad guys. We dissent.
174. #25 DANNY BRAUNAGEL vs. #7 Carson Kharchla. Wrestlestat.com is again predicting a 10-5 win for the Buckeye in this match. When healthy, we believe that the Brawlnagel is better than this opponent. Thing is, both of these guys have been injured so much during their careers, they probably have a ward named after them in nearby hospitals.
Because of fragility, Kharchla has a 4-0 record this season. He does have a much better mark against common opponents. We believe Danny will win, but we know that the Buckeye did wrestle yesterday and scored a major over the #90 wrestler from Oregon State. Will Tom Ryan start him against a guy nicknamed "The Brawlnagel"? The team from the East does have Hepner and Birden who can bump up and take this match.
184. #14 EDMOND RUTH vs. #17 Ryder Rogotzke. For some reason, the Wrestlestat.com algorithm has Ruth losing a home dual to a fellow rated three spots below him, who has a 3-1 record with two matches at 197, and who finished 18-10 as a National Qualifier last season at 184. The Buckeye beat Dylan Connell 5-2 in the dual in Columbus.
Rogotzke loves his Greco, which should be interesting to see in a match with Edmond Ruth. The ILLINI will need to be careful of his opponent on the bottom, as he likes to step over any tilts, and he loves the reach-back whip-over from the down position. Avoid those moves, which have given Rogotzke a reputation as a pinner, use your own underhooks and shrug-bys for takedowns and come away with a victory here.
This is only a Wrestlestat.com upset; we have Edmond with the win here.
197. #14 Zac Braunagel vs. #17 Seth Shumate. The Buckeye started the year in an open tournament at 197. He wrestled Cliff Keen and some early duals at 184. In the dual against Oregon State yesterday, he went back up to 197. The more formidable Luke Geog had manned this spot until injury.
If anybody but Rogotzke, Shumate or Geog walks out for this match, then the dual is out of reach for one of the teams. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 9-4 win for the ILLINI, and with the Buckeye at 8-6 on the year, we think that's generous.
285. #14 LUKE LUFFMAN vs. #4 Nick Feldman. Wrestlestat.com is going with a 9-5 win for the Buckeye. We don't see it like that. Feldman just returned from a month-long injury, taking to the mat yesterday against a .500 career opponent from Oregon State. He teched him, but that was not a challenge.
We believe that Luuuuuke offers a much more difficult challenge with his combination of power, speed and agility. Feldman usually has those advantages against the dancing bears, but it will be the little extra weight that could give the ILLINI the win. So, we're saying, take the mortgage, the cat, the boat and the wife and bet them on a Luffman win. Thank us later.
CONCLUSION
The ILLINI have faced what were supposed to be stiff tests from a #6 Missouri team and a top twenty Arizona State squad with resounding wins. This'll be a tougher matchup with the Buckeyes, who have solid favorites at 125, 141, and at least paper favorites at 157, 174 and 285. ILLINOIS is favored (unless you are buying what Wrestlestat.com is selling) at the other weights.
The keys to victory for ILLINOIS include not giving up bonus, especially at 125 and 141, and getting a paper upset in the toss-up matches at 174 and 285. Whatever happens at 157, it will be unexpected and will probably blow people's minds.
If the match starts at 125, that might be advantage for the home team, as they're at home, and McCrone is a very tall little guy. He must be cutting some weight, as he's not as thin as Caelan Riley. In fact, this will be a matchup of the closest thing this weight class has to basketball players.
OSU wrestled at home yesterday. By the time this match rolls around, the ILLINI starters will not have seen action for over a month. Will they be rusty? Will Ohio State be weary? Since the date of that Indiana Fan Fest dual, the Scarlet and Gray have wrestled the final day of Cliff Keen and five duals. Will they be extra sharp or sick of cutting weight?
The ILLINI have Senior and post-Graduate leaders on the team, and that kind of leadership extends down to the redshirt Freshmen, so we don't think they've taken their eyes off the prize, and they will want to show out before the home crowd.
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