The Best Big Ten Tournament Preview in the History of the World

WHAT:  Big Ten Conference Championship

WHERE:  Stupid Lincoln, Nebraska

WHEN:  March 5-6, Session I starts a 10:00 AM (Central)

TV/STREAMING:  BTN, possible streaming or tape delay from BTN+

THAT BTN+ SUBSCRIPTION

All sessions are scheduled on BTN on both days. The ILLINI schedule shows that BTN+ will stream the event, but whether or not that will be via tape delay is unknown at this time. The BTN+ event calendar does not show the BTT on either March 5 or 6 at this time. I will not cancel my BTN+ sub at this time, as I don't have BTN here where I live, under an overpass in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. 

TIME CAPSULE

It was March 6, 2005. 

"Candy Shop" by 50 Cent topped the charts. The box office leader was The Pacifier starring Vin Diesel as a Navy SEAL sent to watch the children of a fallen comrade. Resident Evil 4, a survival horror third-person shooter video game developed by Capcom for the Nintendo GameCube, enthralled millions of kids around the world, even though that very night, 60 Minutes ran a program about the evils resident in video games. 

Earlier that day, the ILLINI destroyed the rest of the Big Ten.

"In his 13th season in Champaign, Illini head coach Mark Johnson brought home the Big Ten title with a 130-point performance at this year's championships. Coming in second was Minnesota with 123.5 points followed by Michigan with 118, Iowa with 94.5 and Indiana and Wisconsin tied for fifth with 89 points. Rounding out the field was Penn State with 72.5 points, Michigan State with 70.5, Northwestern with 68.5, Purdue with 38.5 and Ohio State with 26.5."

ILLINI champions that day were Alex Tirapelle (over Ryan Bertin) and Pete Friedl (over Jake Herbert). Winning silver for the Orange and Blue were Kyle Ott, Mark Jayne and Brian Glynn. Cassio Pero finished third. Tyrone Byrd finished in fifth. Donny Reynolds and Mike Behnke were sixth. 

CAVEATS

I will republish or at least update this Preview once we know the true seeds and automatic qualifier allocations. The rankings here are from Intermat, and any assumptions about conference allocations at a weight are based upon the official qualifier allocation selection criteria, but these are just assumptions until the final RPI and Coach's rankings are unveiled.

The latest information is that conference allocations will come out on Thursday, February 24, along with the Coach's rankings and RPI. 

The list of wrestlers below is by Intermat ranking. The information provided is Name of Wrestler / School / Intermat Ranking / Overall Record / Conference Dual Record / Relevant to Seeding Wins & Losses. Only Division One matches are counted in the records below. 

JUSTIN CARDANI -- 125

Barring injuries, we can expect to see these wrestlers at 125 at the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATIONS.  The B1G coaches almost have to deviate from the rankings when it comes to DeAugustino, as his 7-2 dual record is so much better than McKee's (3-5) and Ayala's (4-2). Additionally, I think Justin Cardani is a better wrestler than Dylan Shawver, but I expect that Shawver's much better conference record and head-to-head win over the ILLINI jumps him up a spot in seeding. 

OVERAL OUTLOOK.  Nick Suriano is the favorite to win, but his win over Hildebrandt was only 2-1. Also, the Michigan Skeleton is so thin. He could be susceptible immediately after weighing in. Hildebrandt, Barnett and DeAugustino are also heavier 125ers who could be upset in an early round. There are enough awful wrestlers at the bottom of the conference that none of them should have anything to worry about, although Cardani or Shawver versus DeAugustino in an early match should be marked down as a potential upset special. 

FUN FACT.  Nick Suriano's career record at the Big Ten Tournament is 5-5. That includes a number of injury defaults and his 4-0 record at 133 in 2019, which included victories over DeSanto, Lizak and Pletcher. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  I can see nine or ten automatic qualifiers at this weight for the B1G. The only question is whether Justin Cardani has maintained his Coach's ranking position. He was at #19 in the first ranking, but he will have fallen since then. How far? 

Cardani should not lose to any of the bottom four wrestlers, so he should be safely into an automatic qualification. He can't have the same tournament he had last year, though, losing to everybody except for Maryland. 

As you can see in the draft bracket below, the ILLINI would have Patrick McKee in the first round. Other likely matchups would be Ayala or DeAugustino. I would rather he wrestle the chubby kid from Northwestern first, but I think McKee is most likely. If Cardani is the #10 seed and wins his first match, he'd face Hildebrandt in the quarters. Will the PSU wrestler have had time to rehydrate? Probably. Still, in their only meeting a couple of years ago, Hildebrandt won 1-0 at the MSU Open.

LUCAS BYRD -- 133

Here is the roster of Big Ten wrestlers at 133 listed based upon their Intermat rankings:

DEVIATIONS.  The coaches must deviate from the rankings above to put Matt Ramos ahead of Olivieri. The disparity in conference duals is too much to overlook. Also, they should put Burwick ahead of Gliva. As for the unranked fellows in these lists, I'm placing them in the order that makes the most sense based upon their conference dual marks or based upon wrestlestat.com rankings or head-to-heads. 

I think the conference is allocated nine automatic qualifier spots. The only question is how far Gliva has fallen in the Coach's Ranking. He should have the RPI, and he's certainly good enough to have earned an automatic qualifier. 

FUN FACT.  This is what Heavyweight Nation has to say about 133 in their preview of the Big Ten Tournament: 

"133-

1. Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State)
2. Austin Desanto (Iowa)

Honestly just a two horse race here at 133 unless Rayvon Foley and Dylan Ragusin have something to say about it...." 

No mention of Lucas Byrd, but there is mention of the guy who lost to Byrd this year and won only one match at NCAAs last year at 125 (Ragusin), and the guy who was Round of 16 last year at 125 and whose best finish ever at 125 was 7th (Foley). I'll take Lucas Byrd, thank you. I like Heavyweight Nation, but I left this comment at his preview: "Lucas Byrd." 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  RBY will be the favorite and get the #1 seed even though Lucas Byrd won the conference dual crown record at 133 with a spotless 8-0 ledger. He should also be ahead of DeSanto, but I expect the coaches will give the ILLINI the three seed. 

I expect RBY will have Rayvon Foley in one semifinal, assuming Foley gets past Dylan Ragusin, who he has already beaten this year. In the other semifinal, look for a rematch of last year's with Lucas Byrd taking down Austin DeSanto. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Lucas Byrd, as a three seed, will not get a bye in the first round. Rather, he'll likely face Dylan Koontz of OSU or Dominic Serrano of Nebraska. Then, it would be Chris Cannon or Brock Hudkins to get into the semis. He will win there and again in the finals. He is a natural, who uses leverage, physics, a keen sense of mat awareness, quickness and not a little magic to win. 

Lucas Byrd is my Master Lock Upset Special of the Week!

DYLAN DUNCAN

What can we expect from our guy from Montini? Let's look at the field before we decide. Here are his opponents as ranked according to Intermat:

DEVIATIONS.  If I were a Big Ten coach, I'd probably have Parker Filius with his 5-3 conference record a little higher, but, then again, maybe not. Both Zargo and Bergeland have some pretty big wins in conference duals. Do you put Filius in front of them? That's a good question. I think this is, top to bottom, the best group of wrestlers in the B1G. Cayden Rooks at #13 says a lot about that. Is Micic really going to get a #5 seed? Duncan #6? That's crazy!

FUN FACT.  Dylan Duncan became an All American last year by going 6-2 in the NCAA Tournament. His two losses were to Sebastian Rivera. His favorite cartoon is Avatar: The Last Airbender. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This is a very dangerous bracket. Jordan Hamdan is a four-time Michigan state champion, and he will be the 12 or 13 seed. The top six in the bracket could finish top six at the NCAA Tournament in some order. Nick Lee's chances of winning the bracket are probably 25% better than Eierman's and Rivera's only because the latter two will face each other in the semifinals. 

So, I'll pick Lee to win. 

Rivera has never wrestled Eierman, but he lost to Lee by six at last year's Big Dance. The Hawkeye will have to win two matches that he could lose, and I expect him to do something fun but stupid in one of those matches to lose. Duncan, Micic and Red are all dark horses. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Dylan Duncan is a returning AA, who had a vaguely disastrous B1G Tournament last year. He took a big 3-12 major decision loss to Red that he would later avenge at NCAAs. He also lost to Parker Filius in a puzzler. He still finished 3-2 at B1Gs. 

In recent matches against against Zargo and Red, he hasn't seemed himself. Very few takedown attempts. Pale. Not what a healthy Duncan can be expected to do. He can beat everybody in the bracket if he's on form. 

Will he be on form? 

I have likened Dylan to a professional shortstop with his clean and sharp movements. He has a combination of beautiful, technical offense on his feet and the ability to ride hard and turn really good wrestlers. Refs owe him a pin over Chad Red and about twelve additional back points. Remember that, refs! 

TO BE CONTINUED ...