A Moneyball Look at Zane Richards' World Cup

I watched the 2011 movie Moneyball, starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, and wondered, "Could this be useful in scouting opposing wrestlers?" Maybe. Maybe not. I'd never know unless I try. So, I've tried. 

In the movie--I really only watched YouTube clips--the Oakland A's use a sabermetric approach to place number values or percentages on athletes they might sign to help their team win. If a player has the correct number value at a reasonable salary, they would scoop him up. The ratio that was stressed the most, at least in the movie, was on base percentage. 

How would that work for wrestling?

Well, I think there can be a number of numbers, ratios and percentages that might help, starting with types of takedowns favored. Which were successful and at what percentage? Which of the opponent's takedowns were successful and at what percentage? Then, you might also want to look at ties: Where are they comfortable and uncomfortable? Finally, you'd want to obtain data on turns. 

There is a limited amount of video available for some of the wrestlers in the World Cup, but, in the future, could this be used for the B1G Conference and NCAA tournaments? Hmmmm. I don't know. 

In any event, Zane will need to prepare for wrestlers from Mongolia and Georgia. Additionally, my money is on the USA and Iran reaching the finals, so scouting the Iranian 57kg might also prove useful. Here, then, are their Moneyball statistics.

CAVEAT:  These are small sample sizes. The Iranian has four videos; the Mongolian has twelve within the last two years. Maybe a tendency can be learned. Maybe not. In baseball you have 162 games and ~550 at bats per season. 

Additionally, a modification that I would like to attempt when dealing with NCAA wrestlers is to run numbers against all wrestlers, but then have a subset of percentages against only elite wrestlers. That's because a wrestler will wrestle differently against skilled and unskilled opponents. 

IRAN: REZ HOSSEIN MOMENIJOUJADEH 

The Iranian wrestler at this weight is tall, but still well-muscled. In terms of a physical match, I would say Thomas Gilman if Gilman only lost about 5 and not 25 pounds to make weight. Or, a slightly more muscled Vito Arujau. Momenijoujadeh made it to the finals of this year's U20 Asian Championships where he lost by criteria (2-2) to a wrestler from Kazakhstan. He only had to win two matches to get there, easily beating young folks from Iraq and Kyrgyzstan. 

Momenijoujadeh also wrestled in the Senior Asian Championships and lost his first match 6-10 to a Mongolian who could be Zane's first opponent in the World Cup. The Mongolian would lose in the semifinals and that kicked the Iranian out of the tournament. 

SPECIAL:  Momenijoujadeh likes to interlace fingers then blame his opponent to get a rebuke of his opponent from the ref. He also hates, hates, hates when you get up close to him after a restart. It drives him nuts. He has to defend long legs and likes to keep them far away from his opponent. 

Mostly tricep ties to start a match to push opponents, but collar ties when he needs to score. He will lean in low, so a head pinch or front headlock or head-in-the-hole can be successful. It almost worked for his worst opponent (Iraq), except for Iran's singlet grab: 

MONEYBALL STATS ON THE IRANIAN:

MONGOLIA: ZANABAZAR ZANDANBUD

This will likely be Zane's first-round opponent and likely the first match in the World Cup. The United States dual with Mongolia kicks off the tournament. I would suspect that the Mongolians will want their best wrestler and World Championships bronze medalist to face the USA. 

They do have another 57kg listed, but would you start the World Cup against the USA with anybody other than your best? Zandanbud won the World Bronze this year, but he also placed fifth at the Asian Championships and eleventh there the year before. He is somewhat erratic. 

SPECIAL: Zanabazar has a wicked reverse arm throw that he can use from a pummel position. It led to exposure against Muhammet Karavus of Turkey. Very quick low single. Gilman was very successful wearing him out with a front headlock series. 

I have a pie chart for ties, but for a little fella like the Mongolian, he might hold a tie for one second, two seconds and, usually at the most, ten seconds if he's stalling for time. He runs through ties the way Vin Diesel mashes through gears in The Fast and the Furious. This is unlike the fatties, who might hold the same collar tie for an entire match. 

In the twelve matches that I watched, Zandanbud tried ten single-leg attacks and was successful three times. He attempted seven spin behinds (while his opponent was grounded or after a bad shot) and was successful three times. His attempt to completion ratio for double-leg takedowns was 8 to 2. He was less successful with ankle picks/grabs: 8 to 1.

In the chart, I have a category called "Miscellaneous" for takedown attempts. These are takedown attempts that happened only once in twelve matches, and they include: An underhook throw-by, a headlock throw (desperation time), a reverse arm throw (he actually scored on this, and its a cool move), knee pick, chest wrap and head-in-the-hole. 

Here is his Moneyball report:

I'll be back in a couple days with Moneyball stats on the Georgian.