Preview of the ILLINI/Stupid Northwestern Dual (part two)

INTERMISSION

For part one of the dual preview, click here. Also, during our intermission, please consider this: Purple can be used for good. Purple does not have to be evil. 

ONCE UPON A TIME

It is the first year of the 21st Century and the first year of the Third Millennium. The largest ever corporate merger takes place as America Online buys Time Warner for 162 billion dollars. 

PlayStation 2 is released. 

It is the year 2000. Some call it Y2K. 

The ILOVEYOU computer virus sweeps across the world. The Human Genome Project announces that it has mapped us. Wow, we're pretty complex! There's more here than beer and pizza. The population of the world is just over six billion. You've been very busy since then, my sexy friends! 

"Breathe" by Faith Hill, and "Smooth" by Santana, featuring Rob Thomas, top the music charts, proving once and for all that Americans have no taste. Gladiator is number three at the box office, proving that you're not all bad. 

And the ILLINI are gladiators in an arena in Evanston:

No. 6 ILLINOIS 36, vs. Northwestern 3

February 13, 2000 - Welsh-Ryan Arena -- Evanston, Illinois

125 No. 12 Ryan Escobar (ILL) pinned Steve Cordova (NU), 4:56
133 Josh Giacche (NU) defeated Dave Stoltz (ILL), 5-3
141 No. 8 Carl Perry (ILL) technical fall Matt Edelstein (NU), 15-0, 2:58
149 No. 2 Adam Tirapelle (ILL) pinned Nick Scacco (NU), 1:36
157 No. 12 Griff Powell (ILL) defeated Drew Pariano (NU), 7-3
165 No. 19 Bill Zeman (ILL) major decision Will Marcantel (NU), 13-2
174 Ben King (ILL) defeated No. 7 Mark Bybee (NU), 9-3
184 No. 5 Nate Patrick (ILL) defeated No. 17 Tom Ciezki (NU), 6-2
197 No. 11 Pat Quirk (ILL) defeated Matt Huebner (NU), 5-1
Hwt No. 5 John Lockhart (ILL) defeated Josh Saul (NU), 3-1 (ot)

MATCHUPS (cont.)

DANNY BRAUNAGEL (8-7) vs. DAVID FERRANTE (6-5).  This will be a pivotal matchup. Wrestlestat.com has both of the wrestlers ranked about the same, but gives the nod to the Brawlnagel by one. They met twice last year, with the ILLINI getting the major decision by a 24-11 score at the dual. In the NCAA tournament the Mildcat won 11-5. 

The rubber match was actually already wrestled at the MSU Open with Ferrante getting the major by the score of 14-6. It just seems strange that the scores have gone to such extremes. It could be that the Northwestern kid is finding the cut hard. There's no doubt that making weight can take it out of you. Additionally, Little Brawny has had to deal with multiple injuries this year and last. 

If psychological warfare is the game, then have Dylan Connell appear at the weigh in wearing a singlet and just before the 165s are called up, switch out Danny Braunagel. As you recall, the ILLINOIS high school super-match Ferrante's Senior year saw him pinned by the ILLINI recruit. 

The fellow in the Orange and Blue singlet has the better record against common opponents despite the fact that the purple Mildcat has a 2-1 advantage in their individual series. Braunagel is 7-6, while Ferrante is 3-5. 

DJ SHANNON (5-4) vs. TROY FISHER (10-5).  Fisher has some really impressive wins on the season, beating Purdue's Gerrit Nijenhuis 8-4, NIU's Mason Kaufman 3-1, and Oklahoma's Anthony Mantanona 16-7. He would certainly be the favorite in this match. 

Shannon and Fisher already wrestled this year. It ended with a DQ of the ILLINI. If I'm remembering correctly, DJ was holding his own at the time. Here's hoping that he becomes super-motivated to get revenge. The good kind of revenge. 

Not the DQ kind. 

In their last dual against Nebraska, Northwestern sent out Ankhaa Ekhmandakh to wrestle at 174. Was it a Fisher duck, or was he hurt or sick or otherwise unavailable? Mikey Labs scored on nine takedowns and an escape and four-point nearfall for the 23-8 tech fall. 

If Ekhmandakh takes the mat for Northwestern, Shannon will be favored to win. Shannon is 3-3 against common opponents, The Mildcat backup is 0-5. This would be the third dual for the Northwestern 174er, as Coach Storny threw him out against Iowa's Michael Kemerer for another tech fall loss. 

Bottom Line: Against Fisher, expect a tight close match with the NW wrestler favored slightly; against his back-up, Shannon will be favored to win comfortably. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL (7-4) vs. JACK JESSEN (1-6).  This will be the third time these two have wrestled. Brawny is 2-0 against him winning both times by major. Both of the matches took place during duals. Jessen's record this year is surprising until you see that he finished last year at 1-7. During his first two years at Northwestern, he was rated in the mid-fifties. Combined, he had about a .500 record. During his last two years, Jessen is 2-13 and ranked in the 120s. 

I don't know if there's a weight control issue or a nagging injury to the Mildcat. Two years ago, Jessen had one-point losses to Michigan's Jelani Embree and Iowa's Cash Wilcke. He had a very nice ILLINOIS schoolboy record. This should be a win for the Brawlnagel, and it looks like it could be a major. 

The ILLINI is coming off a big win over Max Lyon of Purdue, while the Mildcat has lost his last two Big Ten duals, giving up bonus in each. 

MATT WROBLEWSKI (4-4) vs. ANDREW DAVISON (7-6).  This is a head-to-head matchup that needs a rewrite. Davison is 2-0 versus Wrobocop. One of the matches took place a long time ago, but the last match was at this year's MSU Open, and the Mildcat won 6-1. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a one-point win for Wroblewski even though all of its metrics favor Davison. The kid from Northwestern is ranked slightly higher, is 2-0 in head-to-head matches and has a better record against common opponents (7-6) versus Wrobocop (6-15). 

Davison has been wildly inconsistent except in his matches with the ILLINI. In his last three duals, he gave up a tech to Nebraska's Eric Schultz and a major decision to Iowa's Jacob Warner, and started it all off with a very close 3-5 loss to a very good Jay Aiello of Virginia. 

This is a match that Matt can win, but until he does, he starts off as an underdog. Davison is the brother of NW's next wrestler. 

LUUUUKE LUFFMAN (12-3) vs. LUCAS DAVISON (13-4).  This is another matchup where the opponent has a head-to-head advantage. At the MSU Open, the Mildcat beat Luuuuke by the score of 10-4. He's ranked #10 by wrestlestat.com, and that service foresees a major decision for team purple. Wrong!

Davison is coming off a confidence-boosting win over Christian Lance of Nebraska by a comfortable 8-3 mark. That avenged an earlier loss this season. That kind of loss tells me that if the ILLINI wrestles his best strategic match, he can beat this fellow. 

Davison moved up from 197 last year. He beat Wrobocop 5-0 in the dual last season. In fact, he's been around long enough to have beaten Andre Lee 8-3 at the Lindenwood Open. At 197, he was a two-time NCAA qualifier and one-time Round of 16er. 

This'll be one very energetic heavyweight match. Nobody is cutting weight. Both have shown that they are athletic and have gas tanks. The bad guy will be a solid favorite to win here until he doesn't win here. 

CONCLUSION

I have a hard time seeing a 22-13 win for Northwestern here. Of course, wrestlestat.com's prediction does not take into account the return of Dylan Duncan. The tale will likely be told at 165 and 174. I have 165 as a tossup, and the favorite at174 will depend upon who wrestles for Northwestern. Bonus points could be determinative, and the Mildcats will have the best opportunity at 157, followed by the ILLINI at 184 and 141, then the Mildcats again at 149. 

This was attached to the tweet by the official ILLINOIS Wrestling account for Saturday's probable starters. The guy third from the left looks familiar: