Preview of the ILLINI/Stupid Northwestern Dual (part one)

WHAT:  Dual with Stupid Northwestern

WHEN:  Saturday, January 29 at 1:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  Assembly Hall (State Farm Center)

WHY:  Annual Whupping of Little Brother, Evanston's Big Ten Team

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

FUN FACTS

In this century, the ILLINI have won seventeen of the eighteen duals against Northwestern. There was a fifteen-match win streak during that time frame. The largest margin of victory occurred in 2001 as the team from ILLINOIS won 40-3. 

Including his redshirt season, ILLINI Legend Isaiah Martinez had a total of nineteen pinfalls wrestling for the Orange and Blue. Yet, four of those falls came in his four duals against Northwestern. If you count only his varsity years, IMAR had 17 pins. That means that 23.52% of his pins came against Northwestern during duals. Almost a quarter of all his pins! Was that a coincidence? Is IMAR the ultimate team-first wrestler? Or, does he just hate Northwestern like the rest of America hates Northwestern? 

LAST TIME OUT

The ILLINI were without Dylan Duncan, Matt Wroblewski and the retired Mike Carr and got soundly beaten by Purdue in West Lafayette, 13-25. Northwestern's last dual was against Nebraska, which the Mildcats lost 12-23. Northwestern had all of their big guns in the lineup for the dual with the Huskers. Here's that box score done in a pretty cool way at the Nebraska athletic site:

TIME CAPSULE

Bazooka Joe bubble gum no longer includes comics with their product, causing dad joke fans around the world to weep. The soap opera One Life to Live dies at the age of forty-four. Surprisingly, Van Halen is still alive and releases their twelfth studio album. 

It is 2012. 

Call of Duty: Black Ops II earns over a billion dollars in revenue. World of Warcraft earns nearly a billion dollars. Iconic American company Kodak files for bankruptcy. The ILLINI enjoy a number of "Kodak Moments" on January 27, 2012 as seven wrestlers wearing the Orange and Blue are victorious in the dual with Northwestern. Here's that box score:

#8 Illinois 26, #18 Northwestern 10
174 - No. 12 Jordan Blanton (ILL) dec. No. 13 Lee Munster (NU), 14-8
184 - Tony Dallago (ILL) maj. dec. Robert Kellogg (NU), 13-3
197 - No. 16 Mario Gonzalez (ILL) dec. John Schoen (NU), 4-2
HWT - No. 15 Mike McMullan (NU) dec. Pat Walker (ILL), 4-2
125 - No. 9 Levi Mele (NU) dec. No. 5 Jesse Delgado (ILL), 13-7
133 - No. 5 B.J. Futrell (ILL) pinned Jameson Oster (NU), 2:32
141 - Daryl Thomas (ILL) maj. dec. Colin Shober (NU), 17-6
149 - No. 16 Eric Terrazas (ILL) dec. Kaleb Friedley (NU), 9-7
157 - No. 2 Jason Welch (NU) maj. dec. Jackson Morse (ILL), 13-3
165 - No. 10 Conrad Polz (ILL) dec. Pierce Harger (NU), 5-2

MATCHUPS

Of course, wrestlestat.com has picked Northwestern to win the dual by the score of 22-13. The match may well be determined by Covid, injuries or "pitch counts." However, I can't imagine Little Brother would want to sit anybody when state bragging rights and recruiting mojo are involved. 

JUSTIN CARDANI (9-5) vs. MICHAEL DEAUGUSTINO (3-1).  The wrestlers have split matches, with Cardani winning the first one by a 4-2 count. The Mildcat won the second 2-1. If I recall correctly, a deciding factor in the last match was DeAugustino's legs-in stall ride. 

The ILLINI could not escape. 

Cardani is 20-21 versus common opposition, while DeAugustino is 25-16. The trend line for the kid in the Orange and Blue is downward, unfortunately, as he's 0-3 in Big Ten duals. The trend line for Northwestern is a little mixed, as he beat a pretty bad Nebraska wrestler, but before that, lost to Iowa's Drake Ayala. Still, before that, though, he started Big Ten dual season by beating two AAs in Pat McKee of Minnesota and Eric Barnett of Wiscsonsin. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point win for the Wildcat. This could be a dual-deciding match, so it will be important for Justin to get the takedown and to escape from bottom. The showdown will absolutely be a nail-biter. 

Back when Cardani was 9-2, I was very confident that he'd be an NCAA qualifier. Of course, I expected tough matches, but wins against Dylan Shawver of Rutgers and Drake Ayala of Iowa. There are still matches ahead which will have the ILLINI as a strong favorite (Indiana, Nebraska), but a win against a kid like DeAugustino would go a long way to ensuring that NCAA bid. 

Both DeAugustino and Cannon seem much bigger than Cardani and Byrd, so this dual might be wisely started at 125. On the other hand, both Deakin and Ferrante probably haven't eaten since December. Starting the dual at 157 might just slow their star down enough that he doesn't get a tech or pinfall, then, in the next match, Danny Braunagel could benefit from a weaker Ferrante.

LUCAS BYRD (13-1) vs. CHRIS CANNON (10-1).  Unless Cannon ducks again--something he did last year at the dual in Evanston--this'll be a rematch of the Big Ten third-place contest (won 7-1 by Byrd) and a Round of Eight NCAA matchup (also won 4-1 by Byrd). 

I don't bring up the ducking lightly because the kid from Stupid Northwestern is coming off a one-point victory versus the #92 wrestler from Nebraska. Before that, he beat Iowa's Cullan Schriever by two points; Lucas beat the same guy by five. And earlier in the season, the ILLINI beat Dylan Ragusin by three points, while Cannon lost to the Michigan wrestler by four. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a four-point win for the ILLINI. Their records against common opponents are similar, though the two Cannon losses to Byrd make the noticeable difference. Lucas Byrd is the strong favorite here, especially as he is trending up, while the Mildcat seems to be struggling just a little bit. 

On another note, I wanted to point out something I've noticed in going through Lucas Byrd's matches. There are many instances where Roman Bravo-Young and he wrestle the same fellow, and it is the ILLINI who comes away with the larger margin of victory. Does that mean anything? I'm not telling. 

WE RACHAL (8-10) vs. FRANKIE TAL-SHAHAR (5-5). There is always the possibility that Dylan Duncan enters the lineup at 141 or at 149 in any of these duals. If he does, the ILLINI will be favored to win the weight. Against We Rachal, we have more of a toss-up. Perhaps a slight edge to Stupid Northwestern. 

Tal-Shahar has wrestled a pretty tough schedule this year. The worst opponent he faced has been #124 Drew Bennett of Iowa, who he beat 10-6. Interestingly, both the Northwestern and ILLINI wrestlers had very close losses to SIUE's NCAA qualifier Saul Ervin. 

After two consecutive tech fall losses, Rachal needs a win in a big way. Here's that opportunity. 

Wrestlestat.com shows only Saul Ervin as a common opponent, and it still predicts a five-point win for the Mildcat. We'll just have to see about that. Note that Danny Pucino beat Tal-Shahar 6-2 last season in an extra match during the dual in Evanston.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: A little before 8:00 pm (Central) last night, the official ILLINI Twitter account released the probable starters for the Northwestern dual. Dylan Duncan is listed as the starter. Of course, we have no idea if he's coming back from injury or illness, nor do we know if he's in shape and has his timing down.]

CHRISTIAN KANZLER (10-6) vs. YAHYA THOMAS ().  The four biggest surprises to me at last year's NCAA tournament were the two finalists at 165, Yahya Thomas finishing third and Jackson Turley of Rutgers earning AA honors. In the Big Ten tournament last season Yahya beat Christian 8-2. 

This season, wrestlestat.com is predicting a major decision for Stupid Northwestern. I don't know about that. Christian is savvy, coming off a win, he maintains good position, and Thomas is less likely to throw him around than others because of Kanzler's strength. 

On the other hand, the kid from Northwestern does have the confidence from that AA finish, and Kanzler's knee is not getting any younger. (If only we had Senior Christian's experience with Transfer Christian's knee!). 

The ILLINI can always call on Mike Carr for lessons on beating Thomas. Mikey beat Yahya 3-2 in last year's dual. Christian is 5-10 against the same guys who the Northwestern fellow beat at an 8-5 clip. 

JOE ROBERTS (9-10) vs. RYAN DEAKIN (7-0).  Deakin is ranked #1 on wrestlestat.com, and that service is predicting a tech fall here. Unfortunately, that appears to be reasonable. 

Deakin didn't wrestle in the ILLINOIS/Northwestern dual last year, but in the two years before that, he pinned Eric Barone and beat him 6-1. I could see a result anywhere along those parameters. Roberts has lost four in a row, but Deakin has been out for a large portion of this season with an injury, Covid or something else. Plus, he had a surprisingly close 8-3 win over Garrett Model of Wisconsin recently.

If Joe can keep it to a major against a returning three-time All American, that would be a huge win for the ILLINI.  

TO BE CONTINUED ...