Preview of the ILLINI/Purdue Dual (part two)

For part one, click on this link. 

When they were little, my kids would kick and scream if Santa came close to them. What would they do in the presence of this monster?  Who thought this was a good idea? 

ANOTHER BLAST FROM THE PAST

It was 2008. 

Music service Spotify is launched. SpaceX sends up its first Earth orbital mission. The Large Hadron Collider becomes operational in Geneva, Switzerland, presaging Skynet, the Terminator and the end of human civilization as the robots take control. The Beijing Olympics take place, with Michael Phelps, Usain Bolt and gymnast Nastia Liukin becoming even bigger stars.  

And the ILLINI roll. 

Ben Friedl earns a big upset over Purdue's four-time NCAA qualifer, round of twelver and pins leader A.J. Kissel. There are nine ILLINI winners. Purdue gets a win because of an injury default. This was the box score from February 22, 2008:

#11 Illinois 31, Purdue 6

125: #8 Gabe Flores (ILL) maj. dec. Akif Eren (PUR), 15-3 (4-0)
133: #7 Jimmy Kennedy (ILL) maj. dec. Sean Schmaltz (PUR), 11-1 (8-0)
141: #15 Ryan Prater (ILL) dec. Matt Redmond (PUR), 8-2 (11-0)
149: #10 Jake Patacsil (PUR) inj. def. Grant Paswall (ILL) (11-6)
157: #2 Mike Poeta (ILL) maj. dec. Nick Bertucci (PUR), 15-4 (15-6)
165: Roger Smith-Bergsrud (ILL) dec. Justin Fraga (PUR), 4-3 (18-6)
174: #15 John Dergo dec. #17 Nick Corpe (PUR), 6-2 (21-6)
184: Ben Friedl (ILL) dec. A.J. Kissel (PUR), 5-3 (24-6)
197: #11 Patrick Bond (ILL) maj. dec. Logan Brown (PUR), 13-4 (28-6)
HWT: #15 John Wise (ILL) dec. Chris Kasten (PUR), 7-1 (31-6)

MATCHUPS (cont.)

DANNY BRAUNAGEL (8-6) vs. EMIL SOEHNLEN (3-5) or HAYDEN LOHREY (6-5).  For this match, wrestlestat.com is predicting a near major decision, 10-4, for the good guys. The Brawlnagel is 8-3 versus common opposition while the Boiler is 5-5. 

If Lohrey wrestles for Purdue, wrestlestat.com takes one step closer to a major, prognosticating a 12-5 ILLINI win. Lohrey has been the wrestler at this weight during conference duals as it appears that Soehnlen might have been injured. 

During last year's dual, this weight was manned by Luke Odom, jumping up from 157 to wrestle the current Purdue 174 pounder. Luke fought valiantly, but gave up the 8-0 major. 

With Danny Braunagel in the lineup, the ILLINI will be favored at 165. Possible bonus. I might even say likely bonus, as Little Brawny came off a loss, but a confidence-boosting tight loss to #1 Alex Marinelli, somebody who crushed Lohrey by techfall. That close loss also propelled the ILLINI back into the NWCA rankings.

It's called "the Iowa bump."  

DJ SHANNON (5-3) or TREY SIZEMORE (2-3) or BAAN RACHAL (0-5) vs. GERRIT NIEJENHUIS (13-9).  This weight has seen a lot of upheaval in the ILLINI lineup from week to week. Shannon has gotten the most starts, but all of them have been injured at one time or another, and DJ missed the dual against Iowa this past weekend. 

Whoever wrestles for the ILLINI will be the underdog. 

Niejenhuis got teched by Kemerer of Iowa recently, but just before that, he beat Mike Labriola of Nebraska. As the only NCAA qualifier who will wrestle in this match, he will be favored, and wrestlestat.com has him as a 9-3 decision winner over DJ Shannon. 

The match that the people of Pennsylvania want to see is between Niejenhuis and Edmond Ruth, a rematch of a PA state championship final. But, Ruth is still not on the official roster for the ILLINI yet. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL (6-4) vs. MAX LYON (9-7).  The Big Ten is brutal at this weight. There are no days off. As an ILLINI fan, and a fan of the Braunagels, this is a match that I'd love to see a big win for the away team. 

Max Lyon--which is a cheesy cartoon villain name at best--is one of the bigger 184 pounders, and those guys have given Zac fits over the years. In fact, Lyon has won all three of their previous matches. The first by four points, the second by one point, and the third in overtime. 

The gap is closing. 

Both wrestlers have had big wins already this year. Lyon beat AA Taylor Venz of Nebraska, while the Brawlnagel has beaten AA Brit Wilson of NIU. This will be a close match, for sure, and wrestlestat.com gives the ILLINI a one point win. He has a slightly better record against common opponents. 

This is the one match that, if the meet starts at or near this weight, could give ILLINOIS a marked advantage, as the Boilermaker has to be cutting a massive amount of weight. I can imagine him watching TV during the Summer, on the couch, weighing 300 pounds with a can of Bud Light on his belly. It might be tactically smart for Big Brawny to keep this guy moving hard and fast to wear him out. 

MATT WROBLEWSKI (4-4) vs. THOMAS PENOLA (13-5). There is not a Boilermaker I dislike more than Penola. I think he's a grifty little cheat sumbitch. This is because of a nasty bit of work he did to Luke Luffman a couple of years ago. 

I'll be seriously rooting for the upset here. 

The Boiler is a two-time NCAA qualifier, making it to the round of twelve last season. At the NCAA tournament, he beat now-Rutgers, then-Clarion's Greg Bulsak. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a six-point win for the Stupid Boilermaker, and he does have a decided advantage against common opponents and a prior win over Wrobocop. However, that was a pretty close 5-3 victory. 

Apparently, thirteen of the fourteen Big Ten 197-pounders are ranked in the top 33 with only Indiana's representative outside the rankings. To stay in that top 33, Wroblewski will need some big wins and perhaps an upset or two. This would be the best place to start. 

LUUUUUKE LUFFMAN (11-3) vs. MICHAEL WOULFE (13-8).  The ILLINI still has a shiny record and a swell ranking, but that only goes so far in the wrestlestat.com algorithm. That service actually picks the Boilermaker to win this matchup. Luffman has been very consistent this year, only losing to top ten heavyweights, and he has a 5-2 win over Woulfe this season. 

The two met at the Matmen Open, and the ILLINI was the victor.

Additionally, the kid from Urbana has a much better record against common opposition, although the sample size is admittedly small. He's a two-time NCAA qualifier (although Andre at wrestlestat.com shows only the second year), and yet that service has Woulfe ranked #17 versus the #25 ranking for the ILLINI. Moreover, the Boiler has losses to the 66th, 30th and 35th-ranked heavyweights in the country among his eight defeats. 

That's ******* nuts! 

CONCLUSION

Purdue is ranked #17 in the latest NWCA poll. The ILLINI have dropped out of that poll. This is the one chance the Orange and Blue have of remedying that this week. I actually saw more "Fighting Spirit" in the loss to Iowa compared to the Rutgers dual, and I hope that continues and improves. The ILLINI are favored to win this dual in my mind, although the national pundits don't seem to think so.

I have the ILLINI as solid favorites at 133, 141 if the All American is back for the Orange and Blue, 149, 165 and 285. On the other hand, I have Purdue as solid favorites at 157, 174 and 197. Based upon past records against each other--although all were close matches--Purdue is a slight favorite at 125 and 184. Bonus points are possible at 133, 149 and 165 for the ILLINI, and at 157 and 174 for Purdue, and that could tell the tale. 

Wrestlestat.com is just plain wrong to pick a Purdue win by Michael Woulfe over Luke Luffman, and, of course, having AA Dylan Duncan back in the lineup would be a big help. Whether he's back or not remains to be seen.