Preview of the ILLINI/Purdue Dual (part one)

WHAT:  Dual with the Purdue Boilermakers

WHEN:  Friday, January 1 at 6:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  West Lafayette, Indiana

WHY:  To put a stake through the heart of Purdue Wrestling and their Creepy Mascot

TV/STREAMING:  BTN+ 

Which of the above are the classic horror monsters of cinema and which are the classic horror mascots of Purdue?

HISTORY

Since the turn of the century, the ILLINI are 16-2 against Purdue. Tied for the largest margin of victory was a dual in 2017 that saw the ILLINI win 30-6. In that dual, Kyle Langenderfer scored as many team points with a pin as all ten Purdue wrestlers combined. 

The last time the two teams faced each other, on January 22, 2021, the ILLINI won by the score of 19-17. Sadly, it was also the day that home run king Hank Aaron passed away at the age of 86. Here is the box score from that exciting match:

FULL RESULTS

125: Devin Schroder (PUR) over Justin Cardani (ILL) (Dec 2-0)

133: Lucas Byrd (ILL) over Nathan Cummings (PUR) (Fall 6:40)

141: Dylan Duncan (ILL) over Parker Filius (PUR) (MD 11-3)

149: Michael Carr (ILL) over Alec White (PUR) (Dec 8-2)

157: Kendall Coleman (PUR) over Johnny Mologousis (ILL) (MD 14-4)

165: Gerrit Nijenhuis (PUR) over Luke Odom (ILL) (MD 8-0)

174: DJ Shannon (ILL) over Emil Soehnlen (PUR) (Dec 2-1)

184: Max Lyon (PUR) over Zach Braunagel (ILL) (Dec 4-3)

197: Thomas Penola (PUR) over Matt Wroblewski (ILL) (Dec 5-3)

285: Luke Luffman (ILL) over Jamarcus Grant (PUR) (Dec 4-0)

PURDUE'S LAST MATCH

The Boilermakers are 7-3 on the season. They've beaten Drexel 29-18, Rider 33-3, Cleveland State 39-7, Brown 42-0 (but Brown has since added Jesse Delgado as an assistant coach, so they'll be getting better quickly), Duke 28-15, NIU 28-10 and, surprisingly, Nebraska 18-15. 

Their losses are to Iowa State 13-23, Iowa 4-36 and Michigan State 16-17. We'll take a look at that last match, the loss to MSU:

No. 12 Purdue 16 - Michigan State 17*

125: No. 14 Devin Schroder (PUR) def. Tristan Lujan (MSU), D 3-0
133: No. 11 Rayvon Foley (MSU) def. Matt Ramos (PUR), MD 11-0
141: No. 24 Parker Filius (PUR) def. Matt Santos (MSU), SV 7-5
149: Peyton Omania (MSU) def. Alec White (PUR), D 5-2
157: No. 9 Kendall Coleman (PUR) def. No. 19 Chase Saldate (MSU), D 10-3
165: Caleb Fish (MSU) def. Hayden Lohrey (PUR), SV 5-3
174: No. 21 Gerrit Nijenhuis (PUR) def. Nathan Jimenez (MSU), MD 11-3
184: No. 29 Layne Malczewski (MSU) def. No. 23 Max Lyon (PUR), D 4-2
197: No. 18 Cam Caffey (MSU) def. No. 15 Thomas Penola (PUR), D 8-1
285: Michael Woulfe (PUR) def. Brad Wilton (MSU), D 10-4

* dual finished tied 16-16, Michigan State wins on criteria of total match points (50-49)

INTANGIBLES

This is an away meet, so the ILLINI will have to take a bus and face the Purdue home crowd. The Boilermakers don't list attendance for their duals, but I can't imagine it's much. The ILLINI only have one dual this weekend, so they can concentrate on Purdue. The Boilers, on the other hand, will face Wisconsin at home on Sunday. 

This could be the first time in the lineup this season for All American Dylan Duncan. I5 would be a tough match to start off the season, as Duncan is 2-2 against the kid at 141, but he has majored him in the past, and if healthy, he will win. The ILLINI as a team have been banged up pretty hard this year, and a lot will depend on who is able to go. For example, We Rachal and DJ Shannon were out of the lineup against Iowa.

Another thing to consider is which weight to begin the dual. The ILLINI have benefited in the past from the traditional start at 125 pounds. That would likely be less advantageous in this dual. Both the 125 and 133 pounders for Purdue are pretty light. Schroder is a string bean, and Matt Ramos wrestled at 125 last year. Starting off at 174 might be optimum, as Gerrit Nijenhuis, Max Lyon and Thomas Penola are all pretty hefty fellows. 

MATCHUPS

Wrestlestat.com predicts a 19-12 win for Purdue, although that changed from a 19-13 score while I was writing this up. The prediction does not include Dylan Duncan in the lineup. It also doesn't include any bonus points for Lucas Byrd, which I think is very close to a sure thing. 

Justin Cardani (9-4) vs. Devin Schroder (13-2).  Old foes will meet again for the fourth time. Justin is 0-3 against his nemesis. Two of the matches were 0-2, while the first meeting ended 0-3. Will Justin's continued work on finishing takedowns lead to a better result in this match? 

The Boilermaker is 39-13 versus common opponents, while the ILLINI is 22-21. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 7-5 decision for the bad guy, which seems to fall in line with past events. Schroder was a Big Ten finalist last year, and he's a three-time national qualifier, having made the round of twelve once and the round of sixteen once. 

Of the fifteen matches Schroder has had this year, all but two have been against wrestlers ranked #56 or worse on Wrestlestat. He lost those two to Drake Ayala of Iowa (1-6) and Patrick Glory of Princeton (0-13). 

The ILLINI was riding high after his Matmen Open championship, but he's now lost two in a row in conference and needs this win to get back on course. 

LUCAS BYRD (12-1) vs. MATT RAMOS (12-4).  These wrestlers have no common opponents. Ramos (Lockport) is in his third year in a college room. He spent the first year at Minnesota before transferring to Purdue. This is his first year starting. 

Ramos has a very nice record, but he's only wrestled one guy even close to Byrd's pedigree. That would be Rayvon Foley of Michigan State. Foley recently managed a very easy major, winning 13-0. Ramos wrestled the #28 wrestler from Navy twice at Cliff Keen and was almost majored there. 

The pin that Lucas Byrd secured last year against Purdue was instrumental in the ILLINI win. Without those extra bonus points, it would've been a loss. I expect he'll get bonus points again this season. 

WE RACHAL (8-9) or DYLAN DUNCAN (0-0) vs. PARKER FILIUS (16-6).  We heard hearsay from Shane Sparks broadcasting the ILLINOIS/Iowa dual that Dylan Duncan was coming back into the lineup. The question is: When? Other than the match against Sebastian Rivera, Rachal has been a very exciting wrestler. The ILLINI are lucky to have him. 

Parker Filius is a two-time NCAA qualifier who has made it to the round of sixteen before. He might be too much for We to handle. Even Duncan is 2-2 against him. On the other hand, Dylan did major Filius just last season, so you can expect him to be favored in a matchup on Friday. 

This year, the Boilermaker has lost to Jaydin Eierman of Iowa by a close 6-7 decision; in addition, he's lost to the 6, 7, 18, 42 and 50th-ranked wrestlers. Filius beat We Rachal by a 3-1 score at the Matmen Open. The Purdue kid will be favored versus Rachal and an underdog against Duncan. In either case, he'll have his hands full. 

Dylan Duncan is 28-14 against common opponents, while Filius is 14-18. Wrestlestat.com predicts a six-point win for Duncan and about the same for Filius if he wrestles We Rachal. 

CHRISTIAN KANZLER (9-6) vs. TREY KRUSE (2-11) or ALEC WHITE (0-2). This is a match that favors the ILLINI, as Christian has beaten him twice within the last year. The latest win was 8-2 at the Matmen Open. 

At the dual last season, Kanzler beat him in an extra match 8-5. As you can see the margin widened in the ILLINI's favor. The Boilermaker is 1-6 against the same guys who have resulted in a 3-3 record for the kid from ILLINOIS. 

It should be noted that there's no information, except scuttlebutt, about which weight Dylan Duncan will wrestle. The early rumor was that Mike Carr would go at 141 while Duncan wrestled up at 149. The possibility exists that the All American will enter the lineup at this weight. If that occurred, you could expect bonus points here.

If the ILLINI need it, perhaps Kanzler can also score bonus. 

There is also the possibility that Alec White wrestles for Purdue. He's a slight upgrade over Kruse, but he keeps getting injured. He's lost matches the last three seasons with injury defaults. White did wrestle in the last dual for the Boilers and kept it close with MSU's Peyton Omania (2-5 decision), and he did beat Kanzler back in 2017. 

JOE ROBERTS (9-9) vs. KENDALL COLEMAN (10-3).  File this fact under "Strange but True": The ILLINI is 2-2 against common opposition, while the Boilermaker is 2-3 against the same guys. Of course, two of Coleman's losses were to Kaleb Young, whom Roberts has only wrestled once. 

The wrestlestat.com algorithm predicts a major for Coleman (Mt. Carmel). 

The kid from Purdue is a two-time national qualifier and a Covid first-team AA. He has also wrestled in a Big Ten conference finals. Although injured at the Matmen Open and having to medical forfeit three matches, Coleman appears to be on the mend, winning his last two duals, including a 10-3 victory over #13 Chase Saldate of Michigan State. He will be a big favorite in this match, and Joe will need to wrestle well to avoid bonus. 

Keep an eye open for that shrug by! 

TO BE CONTINUED ...