ILLINI Preview of the Iowa Dual (part two)

For part one of the Iowa dual preview, click here. 

ILLINOIS IN THE BIG TEN RECORD BOOK

The ILLINI have had the fourth-largest number of individual champions at the Big Ten Tournament with 77. The ILLINI have had the second-most Big Ten Tournament team championships with 17, only trailing Iowa's 35. The Orange and Blue are absolutely crushing Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern, Maryland and Rutgers in that category. Those five teams combine for total of zero Big Ten team championships. 

ATTENDANCE RECORD

In a just world, the ILLINI would've set a new attendance record at the Assembly Hall (State Farm Center) last year with the triangular involving Ohio State and Wisconsin. There were loads of exciting matchups that you just new would be great, and they lived up to the hype. 

But there was the Covid.

Most of the spectators in the arena were cardboard cutouts. Surely, with Iowa coming to the Assembly Hall the next year, the old attendance record would fall as quickly as the gates of the Bastille on July 14, 1789, or the popularity of the Macarena as a dance? The old record is 3,573 human people set at Huff Hall on January 28, 2005. The opponent was Iowa. With Covid restrictions in place, will the old record fall? 

MATCHUPS (continued)

DANNY BRAUNAGEL (7-5) vs. ALEX MARINELLI (12-0). These warriors have wrestled twice with Marinelli coming away with a solid major decision each time. The Brawlnagel is 14-10 against common opponents, which isn't too bad given that most of them were Big Ten wrestlers or in the NCAA tournament, but Marinelli is 21-2 against the same guys. 

I've noticed recently that Little Brawny is a hot and cold wrestler. He's cold when he's injured, and hot when he's not. Unfortunately, he was injured at the Matmen Open. Two of the losses in the Braunagel's column this year were against good wrestlers at that tournament, but they were guys the ILLINI would have beaten without the injury. 

Since Alex Marinelli owns the regular season against everybody not named IMAR, there will be no upset special here. If Danny Braunagel can't go, there's the possibility we see Eddie Ordonez, Baan Rachal or Luke Odom. I believe that the first two were injured at the Lindenwood Open, though, so it's anybody's guess. 

We'll know more later today when the ILLINI post their probable lineups at FightingILLINI.com. 

DJ SHANNON (4-3) vs. MICHAEL KEMERER (2-0).  According to rumors on the internet, Michael Kemerer retired from college wrestling two weeks ago. The problem with that rumor is that the four-time AA has given notice that his retirement will take effect on March 19, 2022. The Hawkeye has certainly been present at the last two duals for Iowa, earning a decision against a tough Minnesota opponent, and then teching Purdue's Gerrit Nijenhuis. 

He's also been wearing a bulky shoulder brace. 

Last year at the dual in Carver, Kemerer scored a major decision against DJ Shannon after a riding time point was added. The ILLINI had a very good takedown attempt in the third period and a less good takedown attempt after that. That's a good sign! DJ can get in on the legs and just needs to learn to finish against a soon-to-be five-time All American. 

Because both Shannon and Trey Sizemore (2-3) were both injured early on at the Matmen Open, there is uncertainty about who'll get the start this Sunday. There's also Luke Rasmussen (1-2) who may be redshirting. 

Wrestlestat is predicting a tech fall for Kemerer. He had to work hard to get a major decision last time. I don't see a tech here. The Hawkeye had Carver and a determination to beat another PA kid going for him in the tech of Nijenhuis. Plus, the ILLINI coaching staff have time to study that tape. 

Then, there's Edmond Ruth, who has transferred (or is transferring) to ILLINOIS. He's won the Clarion Open at 184, and then the Matmen Open at 174. Will he be in the mix at 174 this year, or will the three-time Pennsylvania state champ take a shirt? This might be the last time these two PA legends have a chance to meet. 

This is from the Hawkeye's 10-2 dual win against DJ Shannon last season in Carver:

ZAC BRAUNAGEL (6-2) vs. ABE ASSAD (7-2).  This could be the first of three straight matches between six ILLINOIS schoolboy studs. The rankings and wrestlestat.com don't like the Brawlnagel in this matchup, but I disagree. If I remember correctly, the last and only time these guys met was at Midlands, and Assad used a headlock throw to secure the pin. 

That's not happening again. 

Additionally, the ILLINI has plainly added muscle and weight this year, so he's a better matchup for the wide and strong Hawkeye. Zac also has the mental advantage of having beaten the guy who beat Assad out for the spot in the Iowa lineup with his 3-2 dual win over Nelson Brands in Carver. 

Moreover, I'm going to play some mind-juju with the Hawkeye by posting his loss to a high school kid right here (Flo video on Youtube):

Credit for this big ILLINI win will be divided 90% Brawlnagel and 10% me. Wrestlestat is predicting a major decision for the kid from ILLINOIS, who turned his back on his home state. The ILLINI has a 7-9 record against common opponents, while the Hawkeye is 12-4 against the same guys. 

MATT WROBLEWSKI (4-2) vs. JACOB WARNER (8-1).  In this match, I would like to see the ultimate test of the new NCAA transfer rules. After shaking hands, Warner should state, "Effective immediately, I hereby transfer to ILLINOIS." Why not? Iowa fans don't appreciate this three-time All-American wrestler. 

Since this may not happen--even if ILLINOIS has a paper-shuffler from the Admissions office ready with a stack of papers and a big "ACCEPTED" stamp--let's look at the matchup. 

Warner is 4-0 against Wrobocop. 

That's bad news. The only good news when looking at each of their meetings is that Wroblewski went from giving up bonus points to a 1-6 loss to what felt like a much closer 0-4 loss at last year's dual. 

Also, the kid from Prospect High School spent a significant amount of time lifting weights during the off-season. He is much bigger in the arms and shoulders, and he still has his quickness. That advantage helped him beat Cam Caffey earlier this year. Unfortunately, he's another of the walking wounded for the ILLINI, as he's missed every match since the Chattanooga/SIUE triangular. 

Barring a mid-match transfer, Jacob Warner is the heavy favorite, although I don't see the major decision that wrestlestat.com is predicting.  

LUUUUUKE LUFFMAN (10-2) vs. TONY "800 CALORIE" CASSIOPPI (6-2).  At least for now, the better current season record belongs to the kid from Urbana. Every wrestling fan knows that Cassioppi won a gold medal at the U23 World Championships over the break. They're also aware that he slimmed down in the off-season. 

What they might not know is that he's added a choke to his arsenal.

The wrestlers have met one time with Cassioppi gaining the second-period pin. I don't recall what kind of chokehold was involved. 

Wrestlestat, of course, is calling for a major decision for Iowa here. The question in my mind is this, Has 800 Calorie Tony whittled himself down to a size that Luke Luffman can handle? That weight advantage last year was prominent in their dual match. 

That weight advantage is gone. 

On the other hand, Luffman has put on some muscle but still retains his nimbleness, as anybody who watched him following the standing granbys of his opponent in his last match would tell you. 

Another difference in Luuuuke this year is that he is more aggressive and yet less impatient. His underhooks hit harder, his riding is tougher, but he hasn't gone for the sprawling on-his-belly leg attacks that hurt him later in the season last year. Don't get me wrong, the World Champ is very heavily favored here, but I want to see what fight is in the dog. 

THE  END