ILLINI Preview of the Iowa Dual

WHAT:  ILLINI/Iowa Dual

WHEN:  Sunday, January 16 at 3:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  Assembly Hall (State Farm Center)

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

COVID RESTRICTIONS:  Yes. See below.

COVID RESTRICTIONS

The dual against the Iowa Hawkeyes scheduled for the Assembly Hall (State Farm Center) on Sunday, January 16th will almost certainly be impacted by these newly-released Covid protocols:

All guests ages 12 and older entering State Farm Center, including media, staff and premium seating patrons, will be required to show proof of full COVID-19 vaccination OR a negative COVID-19 PCR or rapid test taken within 72 hours of the event in the arena.

Upon entry to State Farm Center, one of the following will be required:

An official, government-issued vaccination card listing the guest's name and dates the last dose was administered.

A photo or digital version of an official government-issued vaccination card listing the guest's name and dates the last dose was administered.

A printed or digital negative COVID-19 PCR or rapid test administered by a healthcare professional with 72 hours to the event that includes the guest's name and date the last test was administered. Information on FDA-approved testing can be found HERE.

The state of Illinois and University of Illinois remains under a mask mandate. Face coverings must be worn by all fans over the age of 5 years.

HISTORY

Since the year 2000, the scoreboard reads two wins for the ILLINI and nine for the Hawkeyes. The last dual between the teams in 2021 saw only two ILLINI leave Carver Hawkeye Arena with victories, Luke Odom and Zac Braunagel, as the #9 Orange and Blue fell to the #1 Hawkeyes 6-36. But let's go back to the first Golden Age of ILLINI Wrestling for a box score. 

The year was 2005. 

It would be another twelve months before a fresh-faced kid from Highland Park named Mike Poeta would step into the ILLINOIS starting lineup. In 2005, the New England Patriots win their second consecutive Super Bowl, Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar for best picture, Revenge of the Sith is released in movie theaters, giving a face to America's collective hatred for rattail hairstyles, which, if you think about it, are really just skinny mullets, and, most importantly, the ILLINI bounce the Hawkeyes all up and out of Huff Hall:

University of Illinois vs. University of Iowa
Friday, January 28, 2005
Attendance:  3,573 (school record)
149: #16 Anton Dietzen dec. #5 Ty Eustice (Iowa), 3-2	        3-0
157:  #2 Alex Tirapelle dec. #7 Joe Johnston (Iowa), 7-5	6-0
165:  #4 Mark Perry (Iowa) maj. dec. Cal Ferry (ILL), 12-2	6-4
174:  #5 Pete Friedl (ILL) dec. Luke Lofthouse (Iowa), 12-5	9-4
184:  #3 Brian Glynn (ILL) dec. #5 Paul Bradley (Iowa), 2-1	12-4
197:  #13 Tyrone Byrd (ILL) dec. Adam Fellers (Iowa), 3-0	15-4
Hwt: #7 Matt Fields (Iowa) dec. #14 Mike Behnke (ILL), 6-3	15-7
125: #2 Kyle Ott (ILL) maj. dec. Charlie Falck (Iowa), 14-6	19-7
133: #4 Mark Jayne (ILL) dec. #14 Mario Galanakis (Iowa), 7-5	22-7
141: Cassio Pero (ILL) dec. #11 Alex Tsirtsis (Iowa), 4-3	25-7

QUESTIONS

There are many questions that remain about the ILLINI starting lineup. We should get answers, or new questions, later today, as ILLINOIS announces the probable starters for the Rutgers dual. The list of anticipated matchups below may be revised depending upon that announcement. 

Some of the main questions include: Will Duncan and Carr start? Have Kanzler, Roberts, Braunagel, Sizemore, Shannon and Nepomnyashchiy recovered from injuries suffered at the Matmen Open? Has Wroblewski recovered from whatever sidelined him before the Chattanooga/SIUE triangular? And, finally, will Edmond Ruth battle for a starting position, or will he redshirt?

IOWA'S LAST TIME OUT

There are four important take-aways from the Iowa dual with Purdue: First, kids from ILLINOIS went 4-0. Second, Purdue wilted again. Third, Ayala had a very surprising win. Fourth, where was DeSanto? Here's the box score: 

#1 IOWA 36, #15 PURDUE 4
125 #14 Drake Ayala (IA) dec. #5 Devin Schroeder (P), 6-1; 3-0
133 Matt Ramos (P) major dec. Jesse Ybarra (I), 11-1; 3-4
141 #2 Jaydin Eierman (IA) dec. #25 Parker Filius (P), 7-6; 6-4
149 #12 Max Murin (IA) major dec. Trey Kruse (P), 10-2; 10-4
157 #12 Kaleb Young (IA) major dec. Cooper Noehre (P), 12-4; 14-4
165 #1 Alex Marinelli (IA) tech. fall Hayden Lohrey (P), 22-7; 19-4
174 #2 Michael Kemerer (IA) tech. fall #21 Gerrit Nijenhuis (P), 17-1; 24-4
184 #18 Abe Assad dec. (IA) dec. #23 Max Lyon (P), 6-3; 27-4
197 #5 Jacob Warner (IA) dec. #15 Thomas Penola (P), 3-0; 30-4
285 #6 Tony Cassioppi (IA) pinned Michael Woulfe (P), 1:14; 36-4
Records: Iowa (8-0, 2-0), Purdue (7-2, 1-1)

HOME MAT ADVANTAGE

The ILLINI wrestled the triangular against Ohio State and Wisconsin at the Assembly Hall (State Farm Center) last year. That atmosphere led to two big ILLINI wins. Will the same venue hold the same magic this year? 

The ILLINI have to travel to New Jersey to face Rutgers on Friday before returning home for the dual against Iowa on Sunday. That is hardly enough time to get the bad taste of Jersey out of your mouth let alone recuperate for another Big Ten dual. Iowa, on the other hand, is on the road Friday and Sunday, but the team has the easiest possible travel schedule, dualing with Stupid Northwestern on Friday, then ILLINOIS on Sunday.

At least the ILLINI won't have to deal with Carver refs. Often, you have to really beat a Hawkeye in Carver to beat a Hawkeye in Carver. One of the best examples of this is Jesse Delgado versus Matt McDonough, a ref, two crazy coaches and thousands of screaming flatlanders. Jesse had to win the match twice:

THE MATCHUPS

JUSTIN CARDANI (9-2) vs. DRAKE AYALA (11-3). Andre at wrestlestat.com has found a new love and his name is Drake Ayala. With three losses on the season (all to Pat McKee of Minnesota), and with one very nice win over Devin Schroder of Purdue, Ayala is already up to #7 in that service's algorithm, and it expects the Hawkeye to win the match with Justin Cardani by an 11-3 major. 

In 71 collegiate matches, the ILLINI has given up a total of seven majors or worse. I would also point out that Ayala needed overtime to beat Noah Surtin of Missouri. Moreover, the Hawkeye's worst loss to McKee was by four points. Cardani lost to the Gopher by two. 

As a final note on this subject, Ayala was on the Flo recruiting board at #2 for 2021, which was three spots above the #5 fellow, Ryan Miller of Blair Academy, the guy who Cardani recently beat to win the Matmen Open. I'm going to suggest that whoever gets the first takedown will win. 

You can trust Ayala to have great cardio, but then you can trust that Cardani will as well. The Hawkeye likes to snatch a single or high crotch from a tie, so the ILLINI's Spiderman set ups could confound him. Against strong opponents, Ayala will mostly try snaps and shrug-bys followed by a spin behind, and he favors an opponent's right leg. Refs in open tournaments have allowed him to not truly clear an opponent before awarding the escape and the next takedown. 

Here's the current Hawkeye versus future ILLINI William Baysingar (Class of '23), during which the Prospect high school young-un manages a takedown against his much older opponent: 

LUCAS BYRD (10-1) vs. AUSTIN DESANTO (11-0).  This would be the marquee matchup if DeSanto is available, It would be the next bout between the two after their scintillating BTT semifinal match last season. The Hawkeye missed his team's last dual against Purdue, and he was a bit of a no-show in a lackluster 7-5 win over Minnesota's Jake Gliva immediately before that. Covid? Injury? He has had problems with his fingers.

The bottom line here is that we are in for a super exciting match if DeSanto shows up at the Assembly Hall. If it is Jesse Ybarra (5-2) coming up from 125, this will be major bonus points for the ILLINI. 

I just noticed that wrestlestat.com is predicting a 40-0 win for Iowa. **** that! That's crazy loco stupid! If you switch in Ybarra for DeSanto, though, you get a more respectable 37-4. 

It would be a shame if an injury or illness kept this match from happening. This is one of the headliners for the entire NCAA over the weekend, as the veteran three-time AA faces off against his one-time AA upstart rival. I'm particularly interested to see what Lucas has new in store for this epic bout. 

That Big Ten Tournament showdown between Iowa's Voldemort and ILLINOIS' Harry Potter starts at about 8:35 in the video below:

WE RACHAL (8-8) vs. JAYDIN EIERMAN (11-0). As long as We keeps his head away from his knee, I don't see any kind of tech fall happening, which is the prediction from wrestlestat.com. We is very strong and athletic and smart for a little fellow. Moreover, in his last five matches against wrestlers with an average ranking of 25.2 on wrestlestat.com, the Hawkeye's average margin of victory was 2.4 points. He is certainly not peaking right now. 

Additionally, there's the possibility that the ILLINI start Mikey Carr (0-0) or Dylan Duncan (0-0) or Danny Pucino (5-2) for this dual. If Eierman doesn't pick up his game, he could lose to Carr or Duncan, and a Pucino match would have loads of entertainment value. 

Who wouldn't want to see them rolling around like a bemused otter and an angry duck? 

I'm still kind of bothered by Wrestlestat's 40-0 prediction, and I want to make a serious suggestion. The algorithm should round up each wrestler's percentage chances for a win. Sure, the computer program will pick a winner in the match, even if one wrestler might have a 51% chance of getting his hand raised. However, when assigning a dual score, those opponent percentages add up. 

For example, I think even the most fanatical Hawkeye supporter would give Justin Cardani a 40% chance of winning. If you also give Byrd a 40% chance of winning, Zac Braunagel a 40% chance of winning, and then a puncher's (i.e. DelGarbino's) 5% chance of winning to others, well, then you have a likelihood of at least one win, possibly more. Add in a home mat advantage, and now we're talking!

CHRISTIAN KANZLER (9-4) vs. MAX MURIN (4-1). The last we saw of Kanzler, he was gamely finishing a match with an injury that forced him to limp. He doesn't deserve one of the losses in that loss column. Will he be ready to go for this dual?

The ILLINI could start the same list as at 141, including Duncan, Carr or Pucino. Murin got a late start to the season himself. He's had close matches with the #11 and #35 wrestlers, and he lost to the #33 guy from Lehigh. This would be another highlight match if Carr gets another go at Murin, or if Duncan gets a shot. 

Murin would be a heavy favorite over a gimpy Kanzler and a smaller Pucino, but the ILLINI odds of winning get much better if Carr or Duncan "get off the couch," as Izzy Martinez put it! On the other hand, it has been fantastic to see Kanzler's improvement since he stepped on campus. He's now beating (x2) national qualifiers from NIU and three-year starters from Princeton. 

As a point of reference, Murin is 5-1 against the same guys who've led to a 3-3 record for Kanzler. Wrestlestat predicts a 9-4 win for the Hawkeye. For some reason, that same program predicts a 7-4 win for Murin over Dylan Duncan! As well as an 8-4 win over Carr! Me? I'm thinking upset special if either of those two wrestle. 

JOE ROBERTS (9-7) vs. KALEB YOUNG (7-5). If you remove the wins against non-division-one fellows at the Luther Open, the Hawkeye has a 3-5 record. Thing is, he wrestled five of the best at his weight in the country. Everybody knows that the two-time AA is a quality wrestler. 

He is also a heavy favorite against Joe Roberts. 

Moreover, as he's had a bit of a dry spell, he'll be looking to score bonus points. Last seen, Roberts was another casualty at the Matmen Open. Refs need to be more cognizant of knees and shoulders! Especially referees at open tournaments. If Roberts can't go, look for either Luke Odom (he won at last year's dual in Carver) or Jake Reicin. 

And now for story time. 

Once upon a time, in the long, long ago, there was an ILLINOIS wrestler who was 2-0 against Kaleb Young. I wanted to post one of those matches, but neither match can be found. Instead, I'll post a highlight tape for that wrestler, which shows a tiny snippet of the Hawkeye having a very bad go of it. About the :06 mark:

TO BE CONTINUED ...