(UPDATE with video predictions) THE ILLINI v. Missouri Preview

 

WHO: ILLINI v. Missouri Dual

WHAT: Home Opener and a Big Party!

WHEN: Thursday, November 21 @ 7 pm (Central)

WHERE: Lot 31, Stadium Club (near Memorial Stadium; see diagram below)

TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription service; $12.99/month)

LIVE STATS: Link to Stats (Free; Trackwrestling)

TICKETS: Link to Tickets

VIDEO PREVIEW PREDICTIONS

The Voice of the ILLINI Brian Swaw and your friendly neighborhood blog get together for a video preview of the matches coming up on Thursday:

LOT 31, STADIUM CLUB

We think the pre-match entertainment, the buffet dinner and the dual will take place in a tent in Lot 31. You see, we haven't been to an ILLINI football game in something like twenty years, so the following map is based upon research and not experience:

A DAY IN HISTORY

It was just an awful day. It was February 10, 2000, a Thursday. We had just come to grips with the fact that the entire world could be shut down because of one coding error. Sure, Y2K didn't happen, but it left us emotionally scarred and wary. 

Even worse, Jim Varney the gifted thespian known for such movies as Ernest Goes to Jail, Ernest Saves Christmas and Ernest Goes to Camp died at the age of 50 from Cancer. Still worse, the number one Billboard hit in America was I knew I Loved You by Savage Garden. On top of that four-course dinner of awfulness, the top grossing film at the Box Office was the awful Scream 3. 

But the day was salvaged, somehow, in of all places, Edwardsville, ILLINOIS. In that town with a year 2000 population of 21,787 near the border with Missouri, the ILLINI destroyed a Missouri Tiger wrestling team by the score of 33-6. The Orange & Blue had a roster chock full of seven ranked wrestlers, including #1 Adam Tirapelle and #1 Dr. John Lockhart. Scoreboard: 

No. 5 Illinois 33, vs. Missouri 6
February 10, 2000
Edwardsville, Illinois

125 No. 6 Ryan Escobar (ILL) pinned Justin Spates (UM), 3:52
133 Jesse West (UM) defeated Kelly Madden (ILL), 9-5
141 Mike Castillo (ILL) defeated J.P. Reese (UM), 11-10
149 No. 1 Adam Tirapelle (ILL) defeated Jesse Jordan (UM), 7-2

157 Ryan Berger (ILL) versus David Neff (UM), 17-4
165 No. 12 Matt Lackey (ILL) tech fall Clint Freeman (UM), 6:23
174 No. 10 John Kopinsky defeated No. 18 Ben King (ILL), 6-2

184 No. 9 Nate Patrick (ILL) pinned Ry Stone (UM), 5:48
197 No. 7 Pat Quirk (ILL) defeated Dante Stone (UM), 11-5
Hwt No. 1 John Lockhart (ILL) defeated Chad Hertzog (UM), 12-5

PRE-DUAL ENTERTAINMENT

We saw a comment on social media which indicated that the pre-dual entertainment will include a buffet, a stand-up comedian and something else. What that something else is, we cannot recall. It wasn't a cock fight or a strip show. We would've remembered that. 

That time Ben Askren ruined our family camping trip. 

MISSOURI'S LAST TIME OUT

The Tigers are 1-1 on the season. They've started the season on the road, winning 25-14 at Northern Colorado, then losing 10-23 to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Their last time out was a bit of a spanking: 

No. 8 Missouri 10, No. 7 Virginia Tech 23
125 | (13) Eddie Ventresca over Gage Walker by dec. 6-5
133 | (10) Connor McGonagle over (29) Kade Moore by dec. 3-0
141 | (18) Sam Latona over (13) Josh Edmond by dec. 4-2
149 | (1) Caleb Henson over (24) Logan Gioffre by MD 9-0
157 | (25) Rafael Hipolito Jr. over (32) James Conway by MD 11-3
165 | (14) Cam Steed over Mac Church by dec. 8-1
174 (1) Keegan O'Toole over (4) Lennox Wolak by MD 13-5
184 | (12) Colton Hawks over (5) Thomas Stewart Jr. by dec. 8-2
197 | (13) Andy Smith over Aeoden Sinclair by dec. 12-9
285 | (14) Jimmy Mullen over (20) Seth Nitzel by dec. 4-2

THE ILLINI'S LAST TIME OUT

The ILLINI are 3-0 in duals with a 41-3 win over SIUE, a 30-10 drubbing of Binghamton, and a 37-6 demolition of ASU. The Orange and Blue team had one of the best duals in years their last time out. They faced Arizona State on a neutral site and came away with that brilliant 37-6 result. Here's the box score:

ARIZONA STATE RESULTS

Weight	Matchup	Score
125:	#1 Richard Figueroa (ASU) pins Caelan Riley (ILL), fall (3:55)	ILL 0 I ASU 6
133:	#3 Lucas Byrd (ILL) dec. #18 Julian Chlebove (ASU), 4-0	ILL 3 I ASU 6
141:	#19 Danny Pucino (ILL) dec. Emilio Ysaguirre (ASU), 4-1	ILL 6 I ASU 6
149:	#10 Kannon Webster (ILL) major dec. #14 Jesse Vasquez (ASU), 21-7	ILL 10 I ASU 6
157:	#21 Jason Kraisser (ILL) pins Michael Kilic (ASU), fall (2:22)	ILL 16 I ASU 6
165:	#33 Braeden Scoles (ILL) pins #15 Nicco Ruiz (ASU), fall (2:53)	ILL 22 I ASU 6
174:	#19 Danny Braunagel (ILL) dec. Chance McLane (ASU), 6-3	ILL 25 I ASU 6
184:	#7 Edmond Ruth (ILL) dec. Azizbek Fayzullaev (ASU), 11-7	ILL 28 I ASU 6
197:	#10 Zac Braunagel (ILL) pins Jacob Meissner (ASU), fall (3:46)	ILL 34 I ASU 6
285:	#13 Luke Luffman (ILL) dec. #4 Cohlton Schultz (ASU), SV-1 2-1	ILL 37 I ASU 6

TEAM MATCHUP

According to Wrestlestat.com, the ILLINI are the #9-ranked team in the country when it comes to duals. Missouri is at #11, so this should be a real ugly fracas. As usual, much will depend on who is able to wrestle for both teams. Noah Surtin and Rocky Elam missed the Tigers' first two duals. 

Ramazan Attasauov missed the ILLINI's last. Despite the lower dual ranking, the missing wrestlers from their duals, and it being a home meet for the good guys, Wrestlestat.com is giving the 19-13 edge to Missouri. 

As we like to say, They'll have to prove that on the mat. 

INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS

125. #27 RAMAZAN ATTASAUOV v. #13 NOAH SURTIN. Neither of these wrestlers participated in their team's last dual. Who shows up is anybody's guess. Missouri fans are high on Surtin. He's a 4x National Qualifier with a R12 to his name. He's got a nasty head pinch to look out for. 

The Tiger is tall for the weight and has more muscle for that length than you'd expect. Could be he's been out of the lineup to give him time to acclimate to 125. That's been Ramazan's issue as well. (We think). Wrestlestat.com is calling for an 8-6 win for Surtin. However, we may see #131 Caelan Riley for the ILLINI and #112 Gage Walker for Mizzou. 

With no additional information on who will wrestle, we'll go with the 8-6 Tiger win as predicted by Wrestlestat.com. 

133. #5 LUCAS BYRD v. #32 KADE MOORE. The question here is whether Lucas will be ready to wrestle again after a November 16 All Star match in Pennsylvania. He looked great in that match, becoming that rare thing: A two-time NWCA All-Star Classic winner! We think he probably wrestles, but if not, the ILLINI will send out #109 Kole Brower or #120 Brian Beers. 

The other question is whether Kade Moore will be available for this match. He forfeited his last match at the Tiger Style Invite to teammate #77 Jake Crapps. Wrestlestat.com calls for 9-3 win for Byrd over Kade Moore. We think a less-than-100% Moore or a Jake Crapps equals bonus points for the ILLINI, and we think that Byrd can name the amount of bonus points he wants. As the cool kids say, "Byrd is the Wyrd." 

141. #17 DANNY PUCINO v. #14 JOSH EDMOND. The ILLINI is off to a 6-0 start to his season with a 50% bonus rate. Edmond is 3-2 with a loss by major to Andrew Alirez in the Finals of the Tiger Style Invite, nothing to be ashamed of. These two met last year with Edmond picking up the 10-5 decision. 

We've seen a more confident and more offensive Pucino this season. Apparently, the Wrestlestat.com algorithm sees that as well, as it gives Edmond the win, but by a much closer 8-6 score. The Tiger has a much better 10-5 record against common opponents compared to Danny's 11-11, but there's also a trend. 

Against the most recent opponents like Purdue's Greyson Clark and SIUE's Danny Martinez, Danny had better results. For example, they both wrestled Martinez this year. Danny scored a major while Edmond secured a five-point win. 

We think the ILLINI pushes the pace here and wears out the Tiger for our UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK!

149. #7 KANNON WEBSTER v. #49 LOGAN GIOFFRE. These two also met last year in the dual. Kannon secured a 3-point victory. We think that Webster does what Ty Watters did with Gioffre: Secure a regular decision in the first match, then get bonus points in the rematch. 

The Wrestlestat.com prediction is along those lines, as it has Kannon with a 12-3 major decision. It could be worse if the ILLINI really gets going. He's on a roll to start the season with a 6-0 record and 66% bonus rate. He just won the Hammer at the Journeymen Collegiate Classic, and he was most recently named B1G Freshman of the Week. Yeah, we see some bonus here. 

157. #33 JASON KRAISSER v. #47 JAMES CONWAY. Isn't this the guy from Goodfellas?  Wrestlestat.com is giving the ILLINI an 8-6 win. The pair have a similar record against common opponents. Conway's in his third year on the Tiger squad and sports a 22-22 overall record. At the dual last year, Chris Moore beat him 6-5. 

In fact, in dual matches, Conway has an 0-7 record. 

If the ILLINI are to pull out a victgory in the dual, they'll need this win. In fact, Wrestlestat.com is predicting a two-point win for Kraisser, and that win is already baked into the algorithm's predicted 19-13 final match score. We can't quibble with that, although we'd suggest that as dangerous as Jason is on the mat, bonus points are a very real possibility.

  

From the archives. Date unknown. 

165. #13 Braeden Scoles v. #11 Camden Steed. Ruth versus Hawks and Braunagel against Elam will probably get the headlines, but this match has a lot of intrigue. Both Scoles and Steed were 4x high school state champions, Scoles in Wisconsin, Steed in Oklahoma. Both were big boarders as recruits, although Steed was further down the board. Both are undefeated this season with exceptionally high bonus percentages. Scoles at 100%, Steed at 80%. 

Missourah fans are very high on Steed. With his 5-0 start this year, that gives him a 24-7 overall record. His best win was in his last dual against #27 Mac Church of Virginia Tech. We watched some video on him, including this one showing Caelan Riley beating him 5-2 in the Quarterfinals of the 16u Southern Plains Regional at 106 pounds back in 2019!    

Obviously, Steed has gotten much bigger. In fact, he looks like a full size 165er. Last season he came within five or fewer points of Caliendo and Olejnik, so he can wrestle tough. 

Here's the thing, though, if we had gambled on our predictions that Scoles would win all of his early-season matches, we'd be driving a Lambo now. So, we are going against Wrestlestat.com's one-point prediction of a Tiger win and calling for another Braeden upset. 

That should make the boys at the Braeden Scoles Fan Page very happy.

 

174. #20 Danny Braunagel v. #1 Keegan The Tool. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision here. These two met in the finals at the Tiger Style Invite a couple of years ago, and it was a very tight match for about six minutes. At 6:11, O'Toole got the pinfall. 

Danny is 12-9 against common opponents, while the Tiger is 22-1 against the same guys. If Danny can keep this to a regular decision, that would be a boon for his team. It'll be tough sledding against #1. 

The Brawlnagel, while at 165 at that Tiger Style Invite, did beat the current Missouri 157er James Conway easily, but as they say, there are levels. 

184. #11 Edmond Ruth v. #13 Colton Hawks. The Tiger has started the season with five straight wins and now sports a 49-27 career mark. The wins included three nice ones over the #29, #23 and #9 wrestlers, the latter was in the last dual against Virginia Tech's #9 T.J. Stewart by an 8-2 mark. 

Hawks has been to two NCAA tournaments and finished R16 then R12. 

Ruth has been tested up at 184, and this'll be one of the thiccest and strongest he'll see all year besides Carter Starcocky. The Tiger will shoot from distance, but he also likes to tie up, and that should make Edmond happy. Wrestlestat.com predicts a one-point win for the ILLINI, and we can see that. 

197. #8 Zac Braunagel v. #3 Rocky Elam. This will be the headline matchup if it happens. Elam still hasn't wrestled for Missouri this season. He's a four-time AA who didn't start wrestling last year until December. It could be for weight or injury reasons. Who knows? In four complete years, he's only had 86 matches. 

Last year, Isiah Pettigrew lost to the Tiger by the score of 2-5. It is hard to believe that anybody squidgy about weight or fragile because of injury would want their first match back to be against Zac Braunagel. 

Aeoden Sinclair has wrestled in the first couple of duals. He's a high-level recruit from the Askren Wrestling Academy who won Fargo, WNO and Super 32. In his two matches, he beat the #118 guy but lost by three to #19 Andy Smith of Virginia Tech in Missouri's last dual. The Brawlnagel pinned Smith at his last NCAA tournament. 

Wrestlestat.com is all over the place, giving Elam a three-point win, although we think it is a pick-em. It also gives Zac a major decision over Sinclair, although that is more likely to be a three- to five-point margin.

 

285. #12 Luke Luffman v. #21 Seth Nitzel. The Tiger sat on the bench for four years during the reign of Zach Elam. He compiled a 32-17 record in open tournaments. Until this season, he never wrestled in a dual for Missouri. Interestingly, he beat Matt Wroblewski and lost to Wroblewski in the same Tiger Style Invite two years ago. 

This season, he is 3-2 with close losses to the #10 Jim Mullen of Virginia Tech and the #13 Seth Nevills of Maryland. He looks like a smaller version of Zach Elam or Lucas Davison. Luuuke should have speed, weight, flexibility and agility advantages. Nitzel might have a strength advantage because it looks like he's on protein shakes. The Pride of Urbana lost to Elam in the dual last year 0-1, and Nitzel is no Elam. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point win for the ILLINI, but with the match potentially coming down to this weight, we could see the good guy wearing down this Tiger and getting a bonus point if needed. Remember that Luffman won the deciding match in the dual with Missouri when he was a true Freshman. Proof: