PREVIEW of ILLINI v. UNC Dual
WHO: The ILLINI v. University of North Carolina
WHAT: Away Dual in North Carolina
WHEN: Monday, November 25 at 6:00 pm (Central)
WHERE: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV/STREAMING: ACCNX
THE GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS
The good news is that the ILLINI have an excellent opportunity to leave this dual 5-0. The bad news is that most ILLINI fans won't get to see it. The dual will be broadcast on ACCNX.
You can find the match listed on the ESPN.com and ESPN+.com schedule:
Once you click on the event you want to see, though, a screen will come up that looks like this:
After clicking on your provider, you will be greeted with a page from your provider with a request for your email or username and password and so on. There are other providers, but they're all small cable companies in states where you are mandated by law to marry your cousin if'n you ain't already married to your sister.
If you have one of the providers in the image above, we would suggest that you test the set-up process by clicking on a live event or a replay from their schedule and going through the enrollment process before the match starts.
UPDATE: According to FightingILLINI.com, a stream will be available on ESPN+. Be prepared in case it isn't.
WHY WE HATE NORTH CAROLINA
They use a mustard-based bbq sauce.
It's insane yet worse than it sounds. The finished product looks like what you'd see during an Exorcism. This, alone, is reason enough for the United States to secede from the Tar Heel State.
A DAY IN HISTORY
On January 13, 2007, the number one song on the Billboard charts was Irreplaceable by Beyoncé. The number one digital song was Fergilicious by Fergie featuring will.i.am. At the box office, the top grossing move was Stomp the Yard. The advertising blurb written by the marketing gurus at Sony Pictures read like this:
"When his brother is murdered, a street dancer moves to Georgia to work his way through college. He joins a fraternity's step dancing team for a competition. Will he also get an education and the girl?"
ILLINOIS 32, North Carolina 3125: #8 Gabe Flores dec. Drew Forshey, 5-3 3-0
133: #18 Jimmy Kennedy dec. #8 Evan Sola, 3-0 6-0
141: #8 Cassio Pero dec. Mike Rappo, 9-5 9-0
149: #13 Troy Tirapelle dec. Vincent Ramirez, 6-3 12-0
157: #1 Mike Poeta MD Ben Fiacco, 13-3 16-0
165: #14 Roger Smith-Bergsrud dec. #12 K. Mueller, 7-3 19-0
174: Nick Guida DEF. Alex Maciag 25-0
184: #15 John Dergo MD Robert McCarthy, 9-1 29-0
197: Patrick Bond vs. Dennis Drury, 7-3 32-0
HWT: #9 Spencer Nadolsky dec. John Wise, 6-4 32-3LAST SEASON
The two teams met last year for a dual, and ILLINOIS came away with the 20-13 victory, which was especially exciting with three true Freshmen getting starts: Webster, Scoles and Moore. Here's the box score for that dual:
FULL RESULTS (UNC)
| Weight | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 125: | Spencer Moore (UNC) dec. Justin Cardani (ILL), 5-2 | ILL 0 I UNC 3 |
| 133: | Tony Madrigal (ILL) major dec. Caden McCray (UNC), 8-0 | ILL 4 I UNC 3 |
| 141: | Lachlan McNeil (UNC) major dec. Danny Pucino (ILL), 8-0 | ILL 4 I UNC 7 |
| 149: | Kannon Webster (ILL) dec. Jayden Scott (UNC), 5-1 | ILL 7 I UNC 7 |
| 157: | Braeden Scoles (ILL) dec. Sonny Santiago (UNC), 4-2 | ILL 10 I UNC 7 |
| 165: | Chris Moore (ILL) dec. Isaias Estrada (UNC), 2-0 | ILL 13 I UNC 7 |
| 174: | Edmond Ruth (ILL) major dec. Sabino Portella (UNC), 10-1 | ILL 17 I UNC 7 |
| 184: | Gavin Kane (UNC) dec. Dylan Connell (ILL), 2-0 | ILL 17 I UNC 10 |
| 197: | Max Shaw (UNC) dec. Isiah Pettigrew (ILL), SV-1 8-5 | ILL 17 I UNC 13 |
| 285: | Luke Luffman (ILL) dec. Cade Lautt (UNC), 8-2 | ILL 20 I UNC 13 |
THE TEAM MATCHUP
According to Wrestlestat.com, the ILLINI will go to 5-0 with a 23-9 victory. The problem with that is the algorithm has Ramazan Attasauov wrestling and winning, Braeden Scoles losing to the #55 wrestler, Kannon Webster losing to #5 Lachlan McNeil and #20 Danny Braunagel falling to #22 Josh Ogunsanya.
We'll believe that when North Carolina's mustard-based BBQ sauce falls from the sky.
THE INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
We're going to do something a little different and bounce around the lineup for this preview. With that, let's start with the wee fellows.
Wrestlestat.com still has RAMAZAN ATTASAUOV wrestling in the dual, but it's been CAELAN RILEY lately. Riley had a very nice Journeymen Collegiate Classic, winning his pool, but he's had problems in duals.
We expect the frustration to continue as UNC has #18 Spencer Moore at this weight, and he's 5-1 on the season, has a 37-24 career mark and beat Justin Cardani in the dual last season 5-2.
The headline match in the dual will be at 149 as we'll get to see KANNON WEBSTER versus #5 Lachlan McNeil. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 6-5 barnburner win for the Tar Heel kid, and they are as close as possible on paper, both with 3-1 records against common opponents.
McNeil won in the dual last year with an 8-0 major decision over Danny Pucino. He's a two-time AA at 141 pounds with some really great wins to his credit, including an 8-5 decision over Real Woods at last year's NCAAs. The Tar Heel is only 5-2 on the year so far, but his losses have been close to #3 Ty Watters (1-4, SV) and #4 Ridge Lovett (0-4).
This looks like it could be the most exciting match of the dual. Kannon will have height and leverage advantages. In his recent loss to #3 Watters, McNeil's takedown attempts were almost all reattack go-behinds where he picks up a single leg and does not finish. Unlike Watters, Kannon will tie up and push the short offense.
Another marquee matchup will be between EDMOND RUTH and Gavin Kane. The Tar Heel is an AA and three-time NCAA qualifier. He's more of the small, tricky 184 pounders, and that, we think, benefits Edmond, who'll be twice as tricky.
Kane beat Dylan Connell 2-0 in the dual last season. His most recent match was a close 6-8 loss to Silas Allred of Nebraska, so we know he's in form, and that result gave him a 6-2 record on the year, 68-29 on his career.
Wrestlestat.com is predicting an 8-3 win for the ILLINI All American. That would be nice, and because it confirms our strongly held biases, we accept it as soon-to-be fact.
On the other hand, Wrestlestat.com completely ignores our confirmation bias with their prognostication at 174. They give the two-point win to Josh Ogunsanya over DANNY BRAUNAGEL.
Couple of problems with that: First, we don't condone Belleville Althoff -- OPRF violence. Second, we think the Brawlnagel will win, and third, Ogunsanya is moving up in weight from 165, and that's the weight he wrestled in the Clarion Open about three weeks ago.
#64 Isaias Estrada has wrestled in three duals for UNC at 174 this season, although he's been a career 24-28 wrestler at 165. Against Ogunsanya, even if he has packed on ten good pounds, we have Little Brawny winning. Against Estrada, it could be bonus.
We're gonna guess that the Wrestlestat.com-predicted 9-7 win by #55 Nick Fea over #14 BRAEDEN SCOLES is a ghost in the machine. Or, a bug. Maybe an algorithm hiccup.
The Tar Heel is 4-4 on the year, and his last match was a 3-9 loss to Nebraska's Bubba Wilson. For his career, he's 7-8. Again, it seems that Wrestlestat.com will give you lots of credit if you keep it close to highly-ranked opponents.
Fea lost by seven to #5 Peyton Hall, and two seasons ago, by four to #7 Julian Ramirez and #10 Carson Kharchla. He also missed all of last year due to injury and had to injury default out of dual match two weeks ago.
The UNC heavyweight Aydin Guttridge is a large human. There have been larger, but probably not many who can hit the scale at exactly 285.00 pounds. LUKE LUFFMAN will face this VLO (Very Large Object) on Monday night.
Before looking at Wrestlestat.com's prediction for this match, let us just say that if we were Las Vegas, we would set the betting at Luuuuke -4.5, which means we expect the ILLINI to win by about four or five points.
Wow! We were wrong. Wrestlestat.com has a 13-2 major decision for the Pride of Urbana. (They are giving a lot of love to that Cohlton Schultz upset, wethinks).
Here's Luke beating Guttridge by about four or five in the U23 quarters last year, and here he's beating him again in the Junior Freestyle finals in 2019 by--you guessed it--about four or five points.
ZAC BRAUNAGEL is scheduled to face Cade Lautt of North Carolina. You might remember Lautt faced Luke Luffman in the dual last season at heavyweight. He lost that match 2-8.
The Tar Heel is 3-3 on the season and 24-25 in college, but he did give up a year wrestling heavyweight.
What makes this interesting is that Lautt is a Greco guy who has had success making US national teams. He hasn't had the success that the Brawlnagel has had, but a Greco guy is always dangerous.
His last two matches have been major decision losses to opponents ranked in the forties and fifties. Wrestlestat.com has it as a 15-5 major decision for Brawny.
It seems that Jayden Scott and Lachlan McNeil switched places over the Summer. Scott went from 149 to 141, while McNeil did the reverse. That means DANNY PUCINO won't have to wrestle the 2x AA, that'll be up to Kannon Webster. Instead, Danny will wrestle Jayden Scott.
The UNC wrestler is 5-2 on the year and 33-21 overall. His two losses are to top ten opponents. Kannon beat him last year in the dual 5-1, and we think Pucino will have about the same result with Scott down a weight.
Wrestlestat.com has predicted an 11-6 ILLINI victory at 141. Danny's been on a roll this year after making the NCAA tournament last season. He needs to get that new moustache a win.
JASON KRAISSER will have a tough opponent in Sonny Santiago, an NCAA qualifier with a 5-2 mark. The two have met with Santiago coming away with a major decision. Yet, the predicted score from Wrestlestat.com is 7-5 in Kardiac Kraisser's favor.
In the dual last season, Braeden Scoles got the only takedown in a 4-2 ILLINI win. Santiago has a 35-25 overall mark, that is blemished with a year of starting up at 165.
He's a strong wrestler, so Jason may need some of those mat skills to pull off the magic.
Finally, there is LUCAS BYRD, who will face an earnest fellow named Ethan Oakley. This guy got the only win against Nebraska in UNC's most recent dual. He beat a pretty good wrestler in Jacob Van Dee. The Tar Heel is 6-0 and feeling pretty good about himself.
Wrestlestat.com is saying 8-5 in favor of Byrd, but the two have had very different experiences against the same opposition. Lucas is 14-3 against common opponents, while Oakley is 2-9.
The Tar Heel has had very close but nice wins over #15 Sam Latona and #26 Jacob Van Dee. But those two are a level or two below Lucas Byrd.
UPDATE: At FightingILLINI.com, it indicates that you can watch the dual with an ESPN+ sub. We don't know for sure, but when researching how to access the stream we saw a comment that somebody, somewhere was able to watch an ACCNX event with only ESPN+. We hope this is true.
ReplyDeleteWell done Greg. Appreciate the time and effort. The mustard based BBQ blurb may have stopped a weaker person from reading on. Tread lightly...
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to the next preview.
Thanks for reading! The "Why We Hate [opposing team's name]" feature has become an integral part of every preview. We view it as less destructive than a Webster head-push-down on a release or Scoles' crossface. Cheers!
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