ILLINI versus ASU Dual Preview and Journeymen Collegiate Classic
WHO: ILLINI Wrestling versus the ASU & Binghamton
WHAT: Triangular Meet
WHERE: Liberty High School, 1115 Linden St., Mannheim, PA
WHEN: Saturday, November 9th (starts 8 am Central)
TICKETS: General Seating $25.00
TV/STREAMING: FloWrestling
WHO: ILLINI at the Journeyman Collegiate Classic
WHAT: Kind of Funky Individual Tournament Thingy
WHERE: Freedom High School, 3149 Chester Ave., Bethlehem, PA
WHEN: Sunday, November 10th (starts 8 am Central, all day)
TEAMS: See Long List Below
TV/STREAMING: FloWrestling
A DAY IN HISTORY
It was Sunday, January 29, 2017 and at the box office the top grossers were Split and A Dog's Purpose. The pop charts were led by Ed Sheeran's Shape of You and the silver medal went to Bad And Boujee by Migos featuring Lil Uzi Vert. The mobile video game Honor of Kings was the best seller.
We've never heard of any of that!
But we have heard of Isaiah Martinez, Zane Richards and Kyle Langenderfer, and they led an ILLINI squad into Tempe that thrashed a ranked Arizona State team. Zane also earned his 99th win as an ILLINI! The Sun Devils won three matches, and two of them were by one point. With their bonus points, Zane and IMAR outscored the entire ASU team. Here is that scoreboard:
#13 Illinois 26, #19 Arizona State 9
125: Travis Piotrowski (ILL) dec Josh Kramer (ASU), 6-4 SV-2 | ILL 3-0
133: #6 Zane Richards (ILL) tech fall Ted Rico (ASU), 18-1 | ILL 8-0
141: Nikko Villarreal (ASU) decision Mousa Jodeh (ILL), 5-4 | ILL 8-3
149: Eric Barone (ILL) dec. Josh Maruca (ASU), 4-2 | ILL 11-3
157: #18 Kyle Langenderfer (ILL) dec. #6 Josh Shields, 6-5 | ILL 14-3
165: #1 Isaiah Martinez (ILL) fall #9 Anthony Valencia (ASU), 6:49 | ILL 20-3
174: #3 Zahid Valencia (ASU) dec. #12 Zac Brunson (ILL), 7-2 | ILL 20-6
184: #12 Emery Parker (ILL) dec. Jacen Petersen (ASU), 13-9 | ILL 23-6
197: Andre Lee (ILL) dec. Austyn Harris (ASU), 4-2 | ILL 26-6
HWT: #7 Tanner Hall (ASU) dec. #15 Brooks Black (ILL), 4-3 TB-2 | ILL 26-9
WHY WE HATE ARIZONA STATE
When you step off of a plane in Arizona, you immediately look around to see what pottery they're baking in this state-wide kiln. Then, you realize it: They're baking people! People!
A "dry heat" is what they call it, but we're not persuaded that humans can survive at these temperatures. It's why we send rovers to Mars not Venus.
Thermodynamics.
Moreover, the University of ILLINOIS is 45 years older than the entire State of Arizona. I don't remember getting a vote on allowing it to become a state. Half the folks think they're cowboys, and the other half think they're Hollywood. I would've voted HELL NO on statehood!
TEAM MATCHUP
When we first did a quick survey of nonconference duals, Wrestlestat.com was calling this a close 18-17 win for the ILLINI. Something's changed. A couple of days ago, they were calling it a 20-15 victory for the good guys. Now, it is supposed to be a 20-14 win.
If we just let this keep going, ASU will eventually have to forfeit. That service also has the Orange and Blue as the #13 dual time, while ASU is ranked at #23. Intermat has ILLINOIS at #13 with the Sun Devils at #21.
They are calling it WrangleMania:
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
There were no Larkins in the ASU wrestle-off finals. Kyler at 149 isn't in the lineup, and Kaleb at 157 seems to be out with injury. Michael Kilic won the spot at 157. At 174, it was Chance McLane who won in the finals with no sign of Cael Valencia. We'll keep that in mind with our individual weight previews.
The Sun Devils might have a slight advantage in the lower weights, but the ILLINI could pull away in the upper weights. The rankings are from Wrestlestat.com unless otherwise noted.
125. #20 Ramazan Attasauov v. #1 Richard Figueroa. We were hoping that the returning national champion from ASU would have his hands full in this match. We think Attasauov still needs some acclimating to the weight. His was the only loss in the SIUE dual. This will be the first day of official wrestling for the Sun Devils. Did Figs put in the work over the off-season or sit on his laurels?
The champ had a pretty shocking 15-5 record against D1 last season that included losses to our friend Maximo Renteria, Nico Provo and Troy Spratley. Four of his fifteen wins were by one point. He did go on a ten-match-winning streak to end the season with the crown.
Two years ago, he had a great 14-0 record as a redshirt Freshman. That included wins over Matt Ramos, Noah Surtin and Dylan Shawver.
The only common opponent is Ramos, who Figueroa beat by one point two years ago and Ramazan lost to in sudden victory three years ago. Wrestlestat.com is calling for an 8-3 win for the Sun Devil. We see this as a very possible result if [a big IF] Attasauov is dialed into the weight by then.
133. #7 Lucas Byrd v. #18 Julian Chlebove. These wrestlers have already seen each other twice. Byrd is the Wyrd came away with two wins by 4-0 and 3-0 scores. Both of those losses occurred at the Midlands two years ago. This is Chlebove's sixth year on the Sun Devil roster and third year as the starter. He was a National Qualifier last season and finished up with a 19-10 record.
Lucas has the overwhelmingly better record against common opponents at 14-3, while Chlebove is at 7-7. The best wrestler that he's ever beaten was ranked #22. He's lost to all of those ranked higher, although he has given Daton Fix and Domenic Zaccone close two-point matches. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 9-2 win for Lucas. We can live with that.
141. #37 Danny Pucino v. #8 Emilio Ysaguirre. We have to think that Ysaguirre is the most highly ranked wrestler in the NCAA with the smallest amount of evidence to support the ranking. Sure he was the #28 recruit coming out of high school, and he made a Cadet World Team and was a Fargo Finalist, but he redshirted last year, and as a true Freshman starter the year before, finished with an 8-6 record.
Two years ago, as a true Freshman starter, he did have a big upset of Brock Hardy in the dual by the score of 10-4. But he also lost to the #18, #48, #73, #83 and #113 wrestlers.
We're beginning to think that the Wrestlestat.com ELO provides a massive bump for wins against top ten opponents, or even just keeping it close.
Wrestlestat.com is calling for a Sun Devil win by the score of 10-5. We know that Danny is already in shape, bigger and stronger than ever, and in top form. We will soon find out if Ysagguirre has been training or partying in Tempe.
149. #9 Kannon Webster v. #12 Jesse Vasquez. After what could be a barnburner at 141, we have another great matchup at 149. Vasquez has a 36-14 overall record in college, but that has included a couple of injuries that kept him out of major portions of two seasons.
This will be his fifth season at ASU and his second season starting. He qualified for the Big Dance last year. His best wins in college have been against #20 Casey Swiderski and #18 Cleveland Belton. He was a 4x Cali State Champ.
We've already seen Kannon this year, and he is ready to go. Wrestlestat.com is predicting an 11-2 major. That would be nice. It can certainly happen if Webster can keep up his usual pressure during the match. Vasquez also likes ankle picks, but Kannon is going to out-reach him with that mighty wingspan of his.
157. #28 Jason Kraisser v. #94 Michael Kilic. Wrestlestat.com has #48 Kaleb Larkin at this weight, but he did not wrestle in the ASU wrestle-offs, so next man up is #94 Kilic.
The algorithm has Kraisser with a two-point win over Larkin and a major decision victory over Kilic. With a 10-12 collegiate record in his third year on the team, and a best win against the #72 wrestler, we see some bonus points piled up on Kilic.
If it's Larkin, he has the Freestyle cred with a 2023 Bill Farrell title, but he's only 2-0 in college so far, and he'll have to show some ability to get off bottom and ride. Not something that comes easy against Kraisser.
165. #51 Braeden Scoles v. #12 Nicco Ruiz. After seeing Scoles at the ILLINI wrestle-offs and in his first match of the season, we know that he is legit and quite undervalued at #51. Braeden is a Wisconsin 4xer and Fargo Champ, and he wrestles like it.
Ruiz is a bit of an enigma. He's rated #12 by Wrestlestat.com, but he's #30 at Intermat and didn't make the top 24 at Flo. This is his second year on the team, first as a starter. He finished 8-2 against D1 last season, but the two losses were to Carr and Mesenbrink. He got flat-out worked by Carr for a tech, but he only lost 10-14 to Mesenbrink.
His best wins were very nice against Oregon State's #27 Matthew Olguin and Oklahoma's #52 Cael Carlson, both by three points. Ruiz was a 2x Cali State Champ. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision for ASU here; it's our upset special. Scoles by decision.
174. #15 Danny Braunagel v. #39 Chance McLane. The Sun Devils also have #50 Cael Valencia at this weight, but it was McLane who won the wrestle-off finals against some other backup.
Could we see Cael Valencia at 174 and Kaleb Larkin at 157? Sure. We just don't know their status at this time. We only know they weren't ready for their recent wrestle-offs.
Wrestlestat.com is predicting a three-point win over both Valencia and McLane. We think a three-point or more margin over Valencia or McLane is reasonable, if a little low. Danny will simply out-condition and out-tough them.
In his sixth year in college, McLane has a 20-16 overall record, although he does have a nice win over #24 Holden Heller. He was a three-time state champion in Montana.
184. #4 Edmond Ruth v. #142 Aziz Fayzullaev. Another enigma in the Sun Devil lineup is this guy. The Uzbeki. He's a two-time junior college champ, but he also was the 86kg champion at the U-23 Asian Championships in 2022.
There is video of him wrestling in the Asian Championships on YouTube here and here. In the latter match, he beats Depak Punia, which is a very nice win. He's a big, strong kid who likes the underhook on either side.
The Uzbeki likes the ties and does not want to give space. He is a grinder, tie-em-up, short offense kind of wrestler. It will be a battle to see who gets to the underhooks that they want when they want them.
Edmond should have a SIGNIFICANT advantage on the mat. It appears that Fayzullaev came straight from Uzbekistan and Freestyle wrestling to a Wyoming junior college and Folkstyle (for language reasons?). The decision to Ruth!
197. #9 Zac Braunagel v. #121 Jacob Meissner. This is Meissner's third year at ASU, and his second year starting. He has a 6-19 career mark. The Wrestlestat.com prognostication is for a 16-3 major decision for Brawny.
It will likely be worse than that for the Sun Devil. He's only been pinned once in college (Aaron Brooks), but he's given up multiple tech falls (Stephen Little, Silas Allred & Nick Stemmet).
Look for the Brawlnagel to break him.
285. #16 Luke Luffman v. #5 Cohlton Schultz. Another top tier match for your viewing pleasure! Luuuke needs to stay out from under the traveling mountain called Schultz. He now has takedown techniques that could bear fruit while keeping him safe from THE FLATTENING.
We haven't seen much of the Sun Devil wrestling Folkstyle in some time. He only wrestled sixteen matches last year, and eight of them were at conference or NCAA tournaments. His record was 12-4, and the thread that seems to tie together the wins and the losses is this: Cohlton lost those four matches to heavyweights who were much quicker than him.
We haven't seen a quicker Luke Luffman than this year's Luke Luffman! The biggest naysayer of all, though, is the Wrestlestat.com algorithm, which is projecting a 13-2 major decision for the Sun Giant.
That seems very unlikely, as Schultz only scored that many points in two matches last year, and those matches were against the two worst fatties he faced all season ranked #75 and #111.
THE BINGHAMTON DUAL
Wrestlestat.com predicts a 31-3 win for the good guys. There will be some good matches. The Binghamton Bearcats have a heavyweight named Cory Day who is Wrestlestat.com-ranked at #10. That's the one prognosticated loss for the O&B, with Day over Luffman by decision. Thing is, Day is a pinner. As we stated before, "Avoid the pin, and Luke'll win." Against common opponents, Cory Day is 7-11, while Luuuuke is 10-4.
At 174, you have #15 Danny Braunagel versus #19 Brevin Cassella. The Brawlnagel is 14-10 over common opponents, while Cassella is at .500 with a 9-9 record. The rest of the Bearcat lineup is ranked no better than #41 at any weight.
THE JOURNEYMAN COLLEGIATE CLASSIC
This is new on the schedule for the ILLINI this season, and it will take place a day after the ASU/Binghamton triangular. We've heard about other teams participating in this event, and from what we understand, in the past, it's an individual tournament with lots of round robins among the wrestlers at a given weight.
The other big names besides ILLINOIS are Cornell and North Carolina State. Pennsylvania and Pitt are always tough as well. Army and Lehigh can be tough at various weights. The same for Lock Haven. The rest are probably tech falls for the good guys. Here are the teams currently listed as participants in the classic:
#8 Cornell, #12 NC State, #13 ILLINOIS, #20 Lehigh, #22 Army (unofficial), #24 Pittsburgh, #26 Penn, #45 Lock Haven, #50 Binghamton, #58 Harvard, #65 VMI, #74 Duke, #75 Franklin & Marshall, #76 Sacred Heart
Teams have sent their Freshmen and non-starters in the past, Penn sent 24 wrestlers last year. PSU sent a bunch as well. Also in the past, the Classic has used a very funky format that puts a certain number of wrestlers at a weight--usually from four to six--in up to five different "pools." The wrestlers in the pools do a round robin.
The pools seem to have been divided by ranking, experience, ability and whether they are starters. For example, Danny Pucino might be put in Pool A, while Will Baysingar and Hudson Goebel are placed in Pool B. As the newby, Olin Walker would get to test himself against wrestlers in Pool C or D. Assuming the likely ILLINOIS starters get placed in Pool A, these are the matchups we might get to see:
#21 RAMAZAN ATTASAUOV vs. #4 Jakob Camacho (NC State); #8 Greg Diakomiholis (Cornell); #18 Max Gallagher (Penn); #2 Anthony Noto (Lockhaven); #23 Nick Babin (Pitt); #26 Sheldon Seymour (Lehigh)
#7 LUCAS BYRD vs. #1 Ryan Crookham (Lehigh), #14 Brett Ungar (Cornell); #28 Ryan Miller (Penn); #34 Gable Strickland (Lockhaven)
#37 DANNY PUCINO vs. #7 Kai Orine (NC State); #15 Vince Cornella (Cornell); #14 CJ Composto (Penn); #12 Wyatt Henson (Lockhaven)
#9 KANNON WEBSTER vs. #14 Ethan Fernandez (Cornell); #17 Kelvin Griffin (Lehigh); #31 Kelly Dunnigan (Penn); #41 Nick Stonecheck (Lockhaven)
#29 JASON KRAISSER vs. #1 Meyer Shapiro (Cornell); #7 Ed Scott (NC State); #20 Jude Swisher (Penn); #35 Nick Stampoulos (Lockhaven)
#50 BRAEDEN SCOLES vs. #5 Julian Ramirez (Cornell); #57 Kaya Sement (Penn); #71 Caden Dobbins (Lockhaven)
#13 DANNY BRAUNAGEL vs. #180 Simon Ruiz (Cornell); #10 Nick Incontrera (Penn); #28 Luca Augustine (Pitt); #66 Tyler Stoltzfus (Lockhaven)
#5 EDMOND RUTH vs. #7 Chris Foca (Cornell); #12 Dylan Fishback (NC State); #31 Maximus Hale (Penn); #57 Colin Fegley (Lockhaven)
#9 ZAC BRAUNAGEL vs. #7 Michael Beard; #12 Mac Stout (Pitt); (Lehigh); #147 Mikey Dellagatta (Cornell); #27 Christian Knop (NC State); #36 Martin Cosgrove (Penn); #147 Tucker Hogan (Lockhaven)
#16 LUKE LUFFMAN vs. #6 Nathan Taylor (Lehigh); #8 Isaac Trumble (NC State); #14 Dayton Pitzer (Pitt); #36 Ashton Davis (Cornell); #113 Matt Cruise (Penn); #114 Ethan Miller (Lockhaven)
As you can see, a lot of great matchups! Looks like Danny Pucino will have a tough pool, especially if Will Baysingar and Hudson Goebel are in it!
Ramazan Attasauov may have the toughest with #2, #4 and #8.
Simon Ruiz and Mikey Dellagatta of Cornell will be better than their rankings, as they just haven't been in the Big Red lineup. Edmond Ruth is 0-2 against Chris Foca, but that was a long time ago.
Luke Luffman had a one-point match with Isaac Trumble at the Midlands last season, and Lucas Byrd hasn't wrestled Ryan Crookham since beating him 4-3 at the 2018 Ironman.
The ILLINI will crown some champions at the Classic!
Comments
Post a Comment