ILLINI B1G TEN TOURNAMENT CENTRAL (Updated)

WHAT:  Big Ten Conference Tournament

WHEN:  Saturday & Sunday, March 9-10

STARTS: 9am (Central) on Saturday; 11:00am (Central) Sunday 

WHERE:  Xfinity Center, College Park, Maryland

TV/STREAMING:  BTN, BTN+ & FOX SPORTS APP

TICKETS & PARKING: Here

UPDATE

The B1G seeds are out! We usually post a "They terk ar seeds" meme on this day, but we can actually live with the ILLINI seeds. Edmond Ruth and Tony Madrigal are your two Big Champs from ILLINOIS. The only question is whether Rocco Welsh chooses bottom.

Choose your poison carefully, young Buckeye! 

Madrigal is the old vet who was hampered by injury all season. He's been on fire since coming back and has the talent to win. Danny Pucino with the nice bump will not have to see Jesse Mendez for an extra match. He gets Real Woods instead, and word is that Real is gassed and lying on a mat belly down somewhere right now. 

They did my boy Jake Harrier wrong, but Dylan D'Emilio is 2-2 against ILLINI in the past. So, that's a push. 

The ILLINI seeds are Justin Cardani-12th (expected), Tony Madrigal-6th (Within range of expectations but a nice place to be for Tony), Danny Pucino-6th (We called this but still a happy surprise), Jake Harrier-14th (Should have been 12th seed), Logan Swaw-14th (Logan got jobbed a bit because the Wisky wrestler is 0-7 against conference foes), Chris Moore-11th (Expected a 12th, and Colonel Storny can't argue because Chris beat #12 Maxx Mayfield in the dual), Edmond Ruth-4th (This was locked in and will mean Starocci in the semis), Dylan Connell-11th (We said a fair seed for Dylan would be 11th, and that's what he got, injuries and all), Isiah Pettigrew-12th (He was locked into this seed), and Peter Marinopoulos-13th (Peter's win over Purdue gives him this seed). 

Likely first-round matchups are:

Justin Cardani--Caleb Smith of Nebraska 

Tony Madrigal--Dustin Norris of Purdue

Danny Pucino--Kal Miller of Maryland

Jake Harrier--Caleb Rathjen of Iowa

Logan Swaw--Brayton Lee of Indiana

Chris Moore--Cam Amine of Michigan

Edmond Ruth--DJ Shannon of MSU

Dylan Connell--Layne Malczewski of MSU

Isiah Pettigrew--Garrett Joles of Minnesota

Peter Marinopoulos--Yarislau Slavikouski of Rutgers

Interesting for Purdue fans--who we all hate--Hayden Copass is wrestling his first match of the season at the Big Ten Tournament. CORRECTION: Two sources list Filipovich for Purdue at heavyweight, only FloWrestling had Copass. Anyway, here's that meme for any seed sufferers out there: 

SAMPLE BRACKET

To familiarize yourself with how the brackets for the B1G tournament work, we're providing a sample bracket from last year's tournament. The top two seeds at each weight will receive a first-round bye. Additionally, there will be a 9th-place bracket or even an 11th-place bracket for those weights that have that many auto-bid allocations.

 

ILLINI SEEDS AND BRACKETS 

125.  JUSTIN CARDANI (4-9). 

The kid from C-U is 2-6 in conference with wins over Massey Odiotti and Minnesota's backup, Brandon Morvari. It looks like Cardani would get the 12th seed in the BTT, but looks can be deceiving. Here's the list of conference starters ranked by Wrestlestat.com:

1.   Matt Ramos (22-3) Purdue
2.   Patrick McKee (12-5) Minnesota
3.   Eric Barnett (22-4) Wisconsin
4.   Drake Ayala (15-3) Iowa
5.   Caleb Smith (18-6) Nebraska
6.   Michael DeAugustino (9-3) Michigan
7.   Braeden Davis (16-2) PSU
8.   Brendan McCrone (16-8) Ohio State
9.   Dean Peterson (16-8) Rutgers
10.   Tristan Lujan (14-13) MSU
11.   Michael Spangler (6-7) Indiana
12.   Justin Cardani (4-9) ILLINI
13.   Massey Odiotti (5-14) NW
14.   Tommy Capul (4-11) Maryland

The Indiana starter has missed his team's last four duals. Blaine Frazier has filled in and is 0-4 in conference duals. If it is Frazier and not Spangler who shows up, expect Indiana to get the 14th seed and Cardani to move up to #11. Cardani won't be passed up by Odiotti because Justin has the head-to-head win. Additionally, Odiotti beat Capul. 

Justin will not get an at-large bid, so he'll need to finish in the top nine to make it to the NCAA tournament. Likely, he'll have a shot to do that in the ninth-place bracket. He'll see somebody like Capul or Odiotti in the first round of that bracket, then need to beat a couple wrestlers like Lujan, Peterson, McCrone and Davis. 

Note that the records above are overall. The Big Ten seeds will likely be different because of head-to-head conference matches. We will delve deeper at other weights, but those conference records are not important for ILLINI fans at this weight. 

133.  ANTHONY MADRIGAL (7-3).

Tony is ranked #26 in the latest Coach's Poll. He is very under-valued, especially given the fact that he has wins over #19 and #15, and although those were tough kids from Minnesota and Nebraska, Madrigal handled them easily enough. Additionally, guys ranked ahead of him outside of conference like Kade Moore and Domenic Zaccone might be waylaid by injuries and criminal matters respectively.

The ILLINI doesn't have an RPI because he hasn't had enough matches to meet the minimum threshold. A pair of injuries during the year hurt him there, and probably cost him a couple of match wins and some ranking placements as well. He does have a nice 6-2 record in conference duals, so that could move up his seed.  

1. Dylan Ragusin (19-1) Michigan
2. Nic Bouzakis (10-4) OSU
3. Aaron Nagao (10-4) PSU
4. Dylan Shawver (19-5) Rutgers
5. Jacob Van Dee (18-6) Nebraska
6. Brody Teske (9-3) Iowa
7. Braxton Brown (16-7) Maryland
8. Anthony Madrigal (7-3) ILLINI
9. Tyler Wells (12-4) Minnesota
10. Nicolar Rivera (11-10) Wisconsin
11. Cayden Rooks (9-9) Indiana
12. Dustin Norris (5-13) Purdue
13. Andrew Hampton (4-19) MSU
14. Patrick Adams (0-12) NW

Madrigal's basement seems to be a #8 seed. He's beaten Wells, Rivera and Norris behind him, and the other two don't stand a chance of taking a seed from him. He could be seeded higher. 

For example, he could be seeded higher than Braxton Brown, who is 5-3 in conference. He could be seeded higher than Brody Teske, who is only 3-1 in conference duals (although he had a win over Jacob Van Dee at the Soldier Salute). Then, there's Aaron Nagao, who is only 3-3 in conference duals. 

So, Tony's seed range appears to be from #5 to #8. Even if he gets the #8 seed, he has beaten #1 seed Dylan Ragusin before. The conference is allotted only 7 spots at this weight, so Madrigal will have to fend off Minnesota's Tyler Wells and Wisconsin's Nicolar Rivera, while also picking off somebody like Brown, Teske or Van Dee. 

He probably can't finish below 8th and receive an at-large bid. If he were to finish in 9th place, for example, he will not have the "finished-within-one-slot-of-the-conference-allocations" criteria in his favor. Still, the extra matches might help him get an RPI, but that's playing with fire.   

141.  DANNY PUCINO (12-7).

At least according to Wrestlestat.com, Danny deserves a #7 seed in the conference tournament. The NCAA allocated 11 spots at this weight, so only three conference wrestlers will be left behind. Danny has a nice 5-2 record in conference duals. He also has a nice #16 in the RPI and a #26 in the Coaches rankings. 

1. Beau Bartlett (18-0) PSU
2. Jesse Mendez (21-2) OSU
3. Real Woods (14-2) Iowa
4. Sergio Lemley (14-5) Michigan
5. Brock Hardy (15-6) Nebraska
6. Mitch Moore (12-3) Rutgers
7. Danny Pucino (12-7) ILLINI
8. Vance Vombaur (14-6) Minnesota
9. Jordan Hamdan (18-8) MSU
10. Danny Fongaro (19-5) Indiana
11. Kal Miller (11-6) Maryland
12. Greyson Clark (13-5) Purdue
13. Felix Lettini (12-5) Wisconsin
14. Joel Vandervere (4-2) NW

Pucino's ceiling could be the #6 seed, as Mitch Moore is only 2-3 in conference duals, and that includes a loss to Jordan Hamdan, somebody that Danny beat. Greyson Clark is listed as the starter for Purdue, but he hasn't been on the mat since January 26. Joel Vandervere has been off the mat even longer, not having wrestled since December 1 at Cliff Keen. 

As long as Danny beats the guys who he has already beaten this year, he will get his golden ticket. Last season, he was an obvious at-large selection, but the NCAA snubbed him. Time for his revenge! 

149.  JAKE HARRIER (1-10).

We're looking for Jake to wrestle with the fire he showed at the end of last season at the BTT. The conference will receive 9 auto-bids at this weight. According to Wrestlestat.com below, the ILLINI is on the cusp at 11th in conference. He'll probably need a major upset (or two small ones). 

Ridge Lovett (21-1) Nebraska

1. Austin Gomez (7-1) Michigan
2. Tyler Kasak (13-3) PSU
3. Dylan D'Emilio (20-8) OSU
4. Caleb Rathjen (11-3) Iowa
5. Ethen Miller (14-5) Maryland
6. Joseph Zargo (17-5) Wisconsin
7. Michael Cetta (13-8) Rutgers
8. Graham Rooks (16-8) Indiana
9. Drew Roberts (17-6) Minnesota
10. Jake Harrier (1-10) ILLINI
11. Marcos Polanco (7-16) Purdue
12. Aiden Vandenbush (4-15) NW
13. Braden Stauffenberg (5-16) MSU

Sam Cartella missed a lot of the regular season for Northwestern, but he made sure to come back for the ILLINI dual. He also recently wrestled in the National Collegiate Open about a week ago. Will he keep his redshirt or wrestle in the BTT? His entry would drop Jake down a seed line.

Additionally, both Jake and Marcos Polanco have exactly one conference dual win. Harrier's was against a Nebraska backup; Polanco's was against Harrier. That means Polanco is likely to jump past Jake in the final seeds. 

157.  LOGAN SWAW (5-7).

Not a typo or mistake. Wrestlestat.com has Logan Swaw wrestling in the BTT. I know the owner of the website calls around to get the lineups for conference tournaments, so it looks legit. Joe Roberts has had major injury issues this season with his hand and otherwise. 

1. Levi Haines (15-0) PSU
2. Michael Blockhus (15-1) Minnesota
3. Jared Franek (15-3) Iowa
4. Peyton Robb (16-5) Nebraska
5. Joey Blaze (15-7) Purdue
6. Will Lewan (9-6) Michigan
7. Brayton Lee (8-0) Indiana
8. Chase Saldate (22-4) MSU
9. Trevor Chumbley (15-8) NW
10. Isaac Wilcox (18-8) OSU
11. Michael North (13-12) Maryland
12. Al De Santis (6-10) Rutgers
13. Logan Swaw (5-7) ILLINI
14. Luke Mechler (5-16) Wisconsin

This is a brutal weight in conference. You have Will Lewan, a two-time AA, ranked #6 in conference. At #7 is another All American. Yet, the conference is only allotted 9 slots in the NCAA tournament. That means that Logan would need to finish ahead of somebody like Trevor Chumbley or Chase Saldate, while also taking out either Isaac Wilcox or Michael North. A tough task for a true Freshman. 

For seeding purposes, Luke Mechler of Wisconsin is 0-7 in conference duals. He also has 4 losses to B1G opponents in tournaments. Logan Swaw is 0-2 in Big Ten duals, but he is 4-1 against conference wrestlers in open tourneys. As a #13 seed, he'd likely see Peyton Robb in the first round versus Franek of Iowa. Of course what really matters will be the 9th-place bracket. 

165.  CHRIS MOORE (8-11).

Another brutal bracket and another ILLINI true Freshman. Moore has had the advantage of starting all of ILLINOIS' conference duals. The good news is that a #12 seed would start off against either a down Cam Amine or beatable fellows like Caleb Fish and Antrell Taylor. 

1. Dean Hamiti (24-1) Wisconsin
2. Mitchell Mesenbrink (19-0) PSU
3. Michael Caliendo (16-3) Iowa
4. Cameron Amine (10-5) Mich
5. Caleb Fish (23-6) MSU
6. Antrell Taylor (17-5) Nebraska
7. Bryce Hepnar (13-3) OSU
8. Tyler Lillard (17-6) Indiana
9. Stoney Buell (14-9) Purdue
10. Blaine Brenner (17-9) Minnesota
11. Maxx Mayfield (11-12) NW
12. Chris Moore (8-11) ILLINI
13. Anthony White (10-11) Rutgers
14. AJ Rodriquez (8-13) Maryland

Chris Moore only has one conference dual win, but he has faced a tough conference slate. He's had four matches in open tournaments against conference foes, and, most importantly, one of those wins was against Rutgers' Anthony White, who should be seeded below him. White also has only one dual win in conference, but his was to #14 AJ Rodriguez, while Moore's win was against #11 Maxx Mayfield. 

Remember our discussions about learning curves during the course of the season? This is the time when those learning curves start to show themselves. My pick for first round upset of the tournament is Chris Moore over Cam Amine. The Wolverine's last match went to overtime against a CMU wrestler who Caden Ernd beat 8-2. Upset Special! 

174.  EDMOND RUTH (18-2).

This weight class in conference recently had a major shake-up with Carter Starocci going down with a knee injury in his last match. The PSU kid was undefeated and on track to win his fourth NCAA title. That may be in jeopardy depending upon the locus of the injury and severity. We've seen Isiah Pettigrew come back from mid-season knee surgery. Can Starocci? 

1. Carter Starocci (12-0) PSU
2. Shane Griffith (12-2) Michigan
3. Patrick Kennedy (12-4) Iowa
4. Edmond Ruth (18-2) ILLINI
5. Jackson Turley (11-4) Rutgers
6. Rocco Welsh (15-3) OSU
7. Andrew Sparks (10-5) Minnesota
8. Max Maylor (13-5) Wisconsin
9. Donnell Washington (14-5) Indiana
10. Bubba Wilson (13-10) Nebraska
11. Brody Baumann (11-11) Purdue
12. DJ Shannon (9-15) MSU
13. Dominic Solis (6-8) Maryland
14. David Ferrante (9-12) NW 

Top to bottom, this is our pick for toughest bracket in conference. David Ferrante, ILLINOIS schoolboy champion and previous NCAA National Qualifier is at the bottom of the list. A possible NCAA four-timer is at the top. The second seed features an NCAA champion, two-time finalist and three-time AA. 

The loss to Patrick Kennedy will likely cost Edmond a seed line, as he has two losses in conference, while the ILLINI superstar has only one. Additionally, Kennedy lost in an open tournament to a conference opponent. Yet, the head-to-head win probably gets him a #3 seed. 

Is that bad? Depending on how far along Carter Starocci can come in a couple of weeks, that might not be bad at all. As a four seed, the ILLINI would be matched up against the #1 seed in the semifinals. There's a lot of work to be done before then, but we could see an Edmond Ruth versus Shane Griffith final. 

Edmond Ruth is #2 in the RPI and #8 in the latest Coaches ranking. Upset Special: Edmond Ruth, Big Ten Champion!  

184.  DYLAN CONNELL (5-9).

Dylan was hampered during the season twice with a foot injury. It kept him out of the lineup during half of the nonconference dual season and at least one B1G dual. His conference record in duals is 2-5, while he's 1-0 in open tournament matches with B1G foes. 

1. Lenny Pinto (19-3) Nebraska
2. Isaiah Salazar (18-1) Minnesota
3. Bernie Truax (11-3) PSU
4. Ryder Rogotzke (13-6) Ohio State
5. Brian Soldano (13-7) Rutgers
6. Layne Malczewski (11-6) MSU
7. Shane Liegel (18-9) Wisconsin
8. Troy Fisher (11-8) NW
9. Jaden Bullock (14-7) Michigan
10. Roman Rogotzke (18-12) Indiana
11. Chase Mielnik (7-15) Maryland
12. Aiden Riggins (7-9) Iowa
13. Dylan Connell (5-9) ILLINI
14. James Rowley (8-16) Purdue

Dylan has shown he can stay with everybody in this bracket save Lenny Pinto. His seed should be better than what Wrestlestat.com shows above. He has the head-to-head win over Aiden Riggins. Moreover, both are 2-5 in conference, but one of Riggins' wins was against a backup. 

Additionally, Chase Mielnik is 0-8 in conference duals, including a loss to a backup. A fair seed for Dylan would be #11. In the first round, the #11 seed faces the #6 seed, which could be Layne Malczewski or Shane Liegel. 

Connell wrestled both of them this year and lost, but the combined score from both matches was 3-0 for the bad guys. This looks like a possible first-round upset. That's especially true if Dylan (1) Doesn't have to worry about nursing an injury, and (2) Doesn't have to worry about his gas tank on account of previous injuries.

There are only 8 allocated auto-bids at this weight. Dylan won't get an at-large bid, so he'll need to beat out somebody who is more or less a coin flip against him like Layne Malczewski, Troy Fisher or Shane Liegel and beat at least one of the guys he should whup like Chase Mielnik and Roman Rogotzke. 

197.  ISIAH PETTIGREW (6-9).

It has been a tough season for the ILLINI, and nobody has toughed it out more than Isiah Pettigrew. He had mid-season knee surgery, then came back and wrestled D1 matches. Because of lost time, Isiah is only 1-3 in conference. The injury certainly bit him when it came to wrestle Vanadia of Purdue. This is a fellow he had beaten previously, but hampered as he was, the ILLINI lost that dual match.

1. Aaron Brooks (14-0) PSU
2. Jaxon Smith (15-3) Maryland
3. Silas Allred (20-5) Nebraska
4. Zach Glazier (16-1) Iowa
5. Garrett Joles (18-6) Minnesota
6. John Poznanski (12-2) Rutgers 
7. Luke Geog (12-6) Ohio State
8. Evan Bates (10-10) NW
9. Kael Wisler (23-12) MSU
10. Gabe Sollars (20-12) Indiana
11. Ben Vanadia (9-14) Purdue
12. Isiah Pettigrew (6-9) ILLINI
13. Bobby Striggow (5-9) Michigan
14. Joshua Otto (1-12) Wisconsin

The Vanadia loss locks Pettigrew into a #12 seed. That's not too bad, though, as it probably means a first round match against someone like Garrett Joles or John Poznanski, a couple of guys he can beat if his knee and conditioning hold up. With his record, Isiah will not get a wild card, so he has to shoot for a top 7 finish. That will require at least one major upset and a minor upset. 

285.  PETER MARINOPOULOS (2-7). 

With the injury to Luke Luffman, Peter Marinopoulos was the next man up. He manned up with a dual win over Purdue and match-saving heroics versus Northwestern. Peter is 1-7 in B1G duals, but that one win is against a Purdue wrestler who will be in the field. 

1. Greg Kerkvliet (12-0) PSU
2. Lucas Davison (14-3) Michigan
3. Nick Feldman (21-4) OSU
4. Yaraslau Slavikouski (14-4) Rutgers
5. Seth Nevills (12-6) Maryland
6. Bradley Hill (12-4) Iowa
7. Bennett Tabor (19-5) Minnesota
8. Nick Willham (9-8) Indiana
9. Hayden Filipovich (6-7) Purdue
10. Jack Jessen (7-8) Northwestern
11. Peter Marinopoulos (2-7) ILLINI
12. Josh Terrill (25-13) MSU
13. Nash Hutmacher (5-3) Nebraska
14. Gannon Rosenfeld (2-14) Wisconsin

We can't make heads nor tails out of the ranking above provided by Wrestlestat.com. Perhaps having a few 197lbers in the mix threw it off? Hutmacher has 3 conference dual wins, so he should be higher.

Gannon Rosenfeld has two conference wins, both against backups, so he should arguably be higher than the ILLINI. Same goes for Josh Terrill. Hayden Filipovich has only one match against a heavyweight, and that was a loss to Peter Marinopoulos. 

It is possible that we see Marinopoulos with the #13 seed and Filipovich with #14. The ILLINI will not get an at-large bid, so he'd need to finish in the top seven for an automatic allocation slot. This would require at least a major upset and a minor one. 

As a #13 seed, Peter's first-round match would likely be against either Yaraslau Slavikouski of Rutgers or Seth Nevills of Maryland. The difficulty increases as a #14 seed, as he'd likely face Lucas Davison of Michigan or Nick Feldman of OSU.

TOUGHING OUT A TOUGH SEASON

the ILLINI have had a tough season due to a number of circumstances. Explaining all of this is going to take some time, so you might want to go grab a beer. We'll need a legend to keep track of everything. So here's the legend:

 

LEGEND

• OLYMPIC RED SHIRT
• MEDICAL RED SHIRT
• INJURY
• SURGERY 
• REGULAR RED SHIRT

 

125. CARDANI. He missed last season because of an INJURY that required SURGERY. He has worn a large shoulder brace all this season. 

133.  BYRD/MADRIGAL.  This was a double-whammy. Over the Summer Lucas Byrd was going to qualify for the Olympics in Greco. He was signed up to do so, and he's made age-group teams in the past. My money would've been on him, but he suffered an INJURY to his hand/wrist. I don't know if it required SURGERY but suspect that it did. He's had either padding or a brace on his hand/wrist for months. He had to take a MEDICAL RED SHIRT. Luckily, Tony Madrigal wanted to finish up his eligibility at the U of I. Unfortunately, he suffered a hamstring INJURY pretty early in the season and missed duals. He came back and suffered a re-INJURY of the hamstring. Good news is that he's back and looks great. 

141.  PUCINO. Unknown INJURY or illness kept him out of a couple duals this season. 

149.  WEBSTER. The question was whether he would take his true Freshman redshirt. In the end, the decision was made to take a REGULAR RED SHIRT. The good news is that Kannon and Braeden Scoles showed up at the Zingo Nationals and cradled everybody from the ticket-taker to the referees. 

157.  ROBERTS. A lot happened here. Austin O'Connor became an assistant coach, and wrestled with Joe. He said Joe has what it takes to challenge for the podium. But, Joe had some concussion issues. He had a re-INJURY during the season. On top of that, he suffered an INJURY to his hand, which caused him to miss duals and eventually wear a wrap that looked like an oven mitt. 

165.  LITTLE BRAWNY. He is training for his shot at the Olympics and is wearing an OLYMPIC RED SHIRT. The good news here is that he has apparently become even better at hand-fighting because, hey, you know, hand-fighting is what Greco dudes do. 

184.  CONNELL. Dylan had an INJURY to his foot/ankle early in the season. He then had a re-INJURY to the same foot/ankle at Midlands. The good news: He should now be healthy and have his gas tank back. Only 8 auto-bids at this weight at the Big Ten tournament, so he'll need to kick butt. 

197.  THICC BRAWNY/PETTIGREW. OMG. Where do we even start? The Brawlnagel is on an OLYMPIC RED SHIRT. Isiah Pettigrew was doing well in the lineup and then suffered a knee INJURY. He had SURGERY and came back about a month later. What a BAMF!

285.  LUFFMAN. Big Luuuke had an INJURY that required SURGERY. He will hopefully have a MEDICAL RED SHIRT for this season. If not, he still has eligibility remaining. .