ILLINI versus Minnesota dual preview (now with Wisky)
WHAT: ILLINI versus Minnesota
WHEN: Friday, February 9 at 7:00 pm (Central)
WHERE: State Farm Center
TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription streaming service)
TICKETS: Free
SPECIAL: Senior Night
A DAY IN HISTORY
Let's travel back to February 22, 1964. Groovy, you say? Yes, my brother, very groovy. Dr. Strangelove is packing theaters across the country. On your transistor radio, I Want to Hold Your Hand by the Beatles plays nonstop. Three days from now a huge underdog named Cassius Clay will fight Sonny Liston for the World Heavyweight Championship.
Barbie™ is only five years old, but your bratty little sister already has four of them. Mini-skirts and Frisbees are a thing. Life's a gas, gas, gas.
The real fun is at Huff Hall, though, as the Fighting ILLINI wrestling team has a quad meet with Missouri, Indiana and stupid Minnesota. The ILLINI are winning all three! Far out! A couple of days later, those wins will be celebrated in The Daily ILLINI in a column gloriously juxtaposed to advertisements for the Vienna Symphony and a steamy Swedish film about a 16-year-old girl who runs away from reform school and finds trouble.
WHY WE HATE MINNESOTA
The State of ILLINOIS is known for Presidents Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan. The state university is famous for ushering in the nuclear, transistor, computer and digital ages. The global city of Chicago is home to mankind's greatest creation: The Deep Dish Pizza. It is the City of Broad Shoulders, Chi-town, the Windy City. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the largest in the world.
Minnesota is known for lakes.
THE SEASONS SO FAR
Northwestern performed the rare "total team duck." That match has been rescheduled for February 18 in Evanston. The ILLINI are 3-7 with wins over SIUE (28-7), Central Michigan (32-3) and North Carolina (20-13). The losses have been to Navy (18-23), Pitt (9-22), Missouri (6-29), Ohio State (6-36), MSU (10-29), Nebraska (9-28) and stupid Iowa (6-36).
The Gophers are 8-2 coming off of two wins on the weekend over Maryland (30-6) and Northwestern (39-0). They've also beaten Bucknell (37-3), Morgan State (52-0), South Dakota State (19-13), NDSU (33-7) and Rutgers (22-12). Minny lost to Iowa (9-22) and Nebraska (14-19). Let's look at their last dual against the stupid Wildcats:
________________
125 #14 Patrick McKee dec. Massey Odiotti (NU), 18-12 | MINN 3, NU 0
133 #20 Tyler Wells TF Patrick Adams (NU), 21-5 6:11 | MINN 8, NU 0
141 #21 Vance VomBaur TF Kolby McClain (NU), 18-2 4:16 | MINN 13, NU 0
149 #13 Drew Roberts TF Aiden Vandenbush (NU) 17-2 5:26 | MINN 18, NU 0
157 #5 Michael Blockhus dec. #18 Trevor Chumbley (NU), 8-5 | MINN 21, NU 0
165 #28 Blaine Brenner win via forfeit | MINN 27, NU 0
174Andrew Sparks dec. Joseph Martin (NU), 7-1 | MINN 30, NU 0
184 #6 Isaiah Salazar dec. #33 Troy Fisher (NU), 8-3 | MINN 33, NU 0
197 #21 Garrett Joles dec. Evan Bates (NU), 9-4 | MINN 36, NU 0
285 #29 Bennett Tabor dec. Jack Jessen (NU), 8-3 | MINN 39, NU 0
________________
THE TEAM MATCHUP
The ILLINI have lost six duals in a row. They would need a massively, almost impossibly, huge upset to stop that trend. The O&B have already wrestled four of the top ten teams in Intermat's dual team rankings. Minnesota will be the fifth at #10. Wrestlestat.com is not overly sanguine about the ILLINI's prospects predicting a 25-6 win for the Gophers.
That algorithm has Edmond Ruth winning. Natch. But also Isiah Pettigrew beating a higher-rated wrestler. Of course, they have Luke Luffman losing to Bennett Tabor. Poor Luuuke has lost so many digital matches this year to guys he would have certainly whupped in real life.
There will be highly competitive matches up and down the lineup, though, and we expect the ILLINI to win three or more of them. The Gophers are solid, but besides McKee at 125, they don't have any rock stars. The ratings listed below are from Wrestlestat.com unless otherwise specified.
THE INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
125. #93 JUSTIN CARDANI versus #8 Patrick McKee. The Gopher is 2-0 lifetime over Cardani with 4-0 and 4-2 wins. He's the two-time All-American rooster who walks around the farm like he owns it. We like to think of him as a cartoon character that magically came to life.
Cardani is 2-8 with an eight-match losing streak. In his last dual, the ILLINI showed some actual pissed-offedness, and we hope to see that translate into aggressiveness while the match is officially going on. McKee is 11-4 and on a two-match winning streak. He's averaged 17 points during those two matches. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major for McKee.
The Gopher gassed as bad as it gets in the third period against Northwestern. If Justin Cardani can keep it close for two periods....
133. #40 ANTHONY MADRIGAL versus #21 Tyler Wells. The Gopher is a true Freshman with an 11-3 record. We believe that he is slightly over-ranked, while Tony is obscenely under-ranked. This should be a great, close match.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: When we first wrote this article, Wrestlestat.com had Madrigal at #60 and Wells at #18. We still believe Madrigal at #40 is way under-rated.]
Although the ILLINI is only 3-3 on the year, he's on the upswing after having overcome two hamstring injuries. His last outing against another highly-touted Freshman, Jacob Van Dee of Nebraska, was a real nice win for Madrigal. Something to build on. KOLE BROWER will wrestle if Tony cannot. Wrestlestat.com says this is a 10-3 win for Minnesota; it is our paper upset of the dual!
141. #36 DANNY PUCINO versus #23 Vance Vombaur. Vombaur has a nice 12-5 record, and he's done better than Danny against common opponents: 4-3 to 3-7. Pucino is 8-7 and will need some wins here on out to secure a place at the NCAA tournament. They have a similar number of college matches, although the ILLINI started last season while Vombaur sat the bench. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a three-point win for the Gopher.
Vombaur likes to push forward with a collar tie and underhook. Quick slide-bys might be successful against him. He also lets you stand up from the down position, so there's no need to fuss around on the bottom, just stand up and simultaneously grab some hands.
As a big 141-pounder, Vombaur might be sucking wind if the meet starts at 125 through 141.
149. #93 JAKE HARRIER versus #51 Drew Roberts. Jake has an alarming 1-7 record against common opponents compared to Roberts' mark of 3-4. This should be a close match even though Drew Roberts has not lost this season against anybody rated below him. His record is 15-5. Wrestlestat.com predicts a four-point win for the redshirt Sophomore from Minnesota.
157. #84 JOE ROBERTS versus #5 Michael Blockhus. It is time for some big Joe Roberts wins. He's 5-6 on the year, and he'll need to step up his game to make the NCAA tournament. Blockhus is your ultimate grinder who ground himself onto the podium last season. He's having an even better regular season this year at 12-1.
Joe is 0-5 against common opponents, while Blockhus is 2-2. All five of Roberts' common opponents were top ten wrestlers. That explains the 0-5 record against them, but it also highlights the Gopher's ability to win half his matches against top ten wrestlers. Wrestlestat.com is showing an 8-4 win for the bad guy. If Joe is injured, BRAEDEN SCOLES will step in.
165. #45 CHRIS MOORE versus #31 Blaine Brenner. Moore has a loss to the #30 wrestler this season, but the other losses in his 7-8 record have been to wrestlers in the top 23. In his last two, the ILLINI came exceedingly close to a pair of upsets against the #17 and #10 guys.
Although Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point victory for the Gopher, we think Moore's got this. Brenner has a much better record at 15-7, but he's had a much easier schedule. Moreover, he's lost to the #40 and #42 grapplers. He also lost to Nebraska's Antrell Taylor 2-8.
174. #11 EDMOND RUTH versus #36 Andrew Sparks. The Gopher is a quality wrestler with a 6-3 record. He was injured through much of November and was at 165 last season. He's lost to the #20 and #24 wrestlers by three and eight points. That may be why Wrestlestat.com is predicting a five-point win for Edmond.
184. #57 DYLAN CONNELL versus #7 Isaiah Salazar. This was a 3-2 match at last year's dual. Salazar is in his fourth year in the Minnesota lineup, having qualified for the NCAAs twice and finished R12 once.
The Gopher has a real nice 15-1 record with his only loss by six to Colton Hawks of Missouri. He really hasn't faced that tough of a schedule so far, although he nabbed the 4-1 win over Lenny Pinto of Nebraska. The records against common opponents show a massive advantage for the Gopher who is 17-2, while the ILLINI is 8-13. Wrestlestat.com predicts a seven point win for the bad guy.
It seems impossible to us that Salazar is still making 184 pounds on an actual functioning scale. He was super-huge for that weight two years ago. If the dual starts anywhere close to this weight, Connell's winning chances increase.
197. #61 ISIAH PETTIGREW versus #21 Garrett Joles. In this match, Wrestlestat.com is giving the upset to Isiah by three points. Joles has a nice 15-6 record, and he's on a three-match winning streak. On the other hand, Pettigrew is coming back from injury. The ILLINI is at 5-6, but has had a pretty difficult schedule. Filling in for him in the last couple of duals has been CHASE WAGGONER.
The Gopher has been in the lineup for six years and has that experience advantage. His record against ILLINOIS (Wroblewski) is 1-1, both close matches. Joles qualified for the Big Dance last year at heavyweight. Here's hoping the 3-point victory that Wrestlestat.com is calling for happens for the ILLINI!
285. #153 PETER MARINOPOULOS versus #51 Bennett Tabor. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a fall for the Gopher, but, then again, it predicted a two-point win over LUUUKE LUFFMAN. Tabor has a nice 15-5 record, but he hasn't wrestled the toughest schedule, and has lost to wrestlers rated #36, #38, #39 and #76. That's right, he's been tested by one top twelve wrestler and lost that as well.
The kid from Minnesota wrestled at 197 most of last year, and he will have some pounds on Marinopoulos, but not that many. In fact, Peter might be taller than him. The double- and single-leg takedowns he worked on the Polar Bear can work on this fellow as well. Watch out for Tabor's underhook to opposite-side knee pull. He uses it often.
If Marinopoulos can't go, who would fault Coach Poeta for putting in JOEY BRAUNAGEL with instructions to look for a head-and-arm throw?
WHAT: ILLINI versus Wisconsin dual
WHEN: Sunday, February 11 at Noon (Central)
WHERE: Madison, Wisconsin
TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription streaming service)
DICTA
Wisconsin is 8-4 on the year, but they've won against a bunch of chumps like Lindenwood, Rider, Drexel, Bucknell, Virginia, Northwestern and Purdue. Their last two duals were wins against Northwestern and Purdue. The Badgers have the benefit of only one dual this week, and it is a home dual. The ILLINI have a chance to pick up three wins with Wisconsin, Purdue and Northwestern left on the B1G slate.
Over the weekend, the O&B have a Friday home meet versus Minnesota and then have to hit the road for Wisconsin. Pending the Minnesota result, ILLINOIS is 3-7. Wrestlestat.com predicts a 20-15 win for the good guys.
THEIR LAST DUAL
Here's a look at the Badger's last dual box score:
No. 23 Wisconsin 24, Purdue 15 - Feb. 4, 2024 - West Lafayette, Ind. | WIS - PUR
125: #1 Matt Ramos (PUR) over #2 Eric Barnett (WIS), Dec. 4-1 | 0-3
133: Nicolar Rivera (WIS) over Dustin Norris (PUR), Dec. 10-7 (SV-1) | 3-3
141: Christian White (PUR) over Zan Fugitt (WIS), Dec. 4-3 | 3-6
149: #22 Joseph Zargo (WIS) over Marcos Polanco (PUR), Dec. 11-5 | 6-6
157: Isaac Ruble (PUR) over Cody Goebel (WIS), Dec. 14-12 | 6-9
165: #5 Dean Hamiti (WIS) over Stoney Buell (PUR), Fall 1:06 | 12-9
174: #12 Max Maylor (WIS) over #32 Brody Baumann (PUR), 19-16 (SV-1) | 15-9
184: #16 Shane Liegel (WIS) over James Rowley (PUR), Dec. 5-2 | 18-9
197: Ben Vanadia (PUR) over Luke Condon (WIS), Fall 1:44 | 18-15
285: Gannon Rosenfeld (WIS) over Tristan Ruhlman (PUR), Fall 4:10 | 24-15
All rankings are Intermat for Jan. 30, 2024
Attendance: 438
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
125. #93 JUSTIN CARDANI (2-8) versus #2 Eric Barnett (19-3). These two have wrestled three times in college, but the last match was almost two years ago. Cardani captured the first match between them 3-1, and that win helped lock up the dual for the ILLINI. There might have been a bad cut for the Badger, as he's scored in double digits (and earned majors) in his other two against Justin.
Barnett is now a two-time AA. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major for the bad guy. Coincidentally, these two have 57 common opponents just like Cardani and McKee.
133. #40 ANTHONY MADRIGAL (3-3) versus #51 Nicolar Rivera (11-6). Tony has the slightly better record against common opponents at 3-1 against Rivera's 2-2. Thing is, the ILLINI has done better than the Badger in all the matchups. One recent matchup is illustrative: The OPRF kid beat Jacob Van Dee of Nebraska 8-3, while his Wisconsin opponent lost to the same guy 4-6.
Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the good guy, but we think it is at least a three-point win here. While Madrigal has been out of the lineup for a number of duals, it's been KOLE BROWER stepping in for him.
141. #36 DANNY PUCINO (8-7) versus #52 Zan Fugitt (6-4). Wrestlestat.com has Felix Lettini in the lineup here, but Fugitt has the better record and better rating, and he's wrestled in the last two duals. We expect to see Fugitt in the lineup on Sunday because Bono will just say, "Well, Fugitt."
Sorry. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for Danny, but we think it'll be much worse for the Badger. He's coming off a loss to the #86 wrestler from Purdue, a guy that the ILLINI Pucino'd for a major. Moreover, Fugitt was at 133 pounds until his last two duals.
149. #93 JAKE HARRIER (1-7) versus #22 Joseph Zargo (14-4). Jake may as well wrestle the rest of the season like a pirate and plunder everything he can. Nothing is given to the man with a 1-7 record. Our hope is that he has a strong end to his season, same as he had last year. It should be noted that he hasn't wrestled the absolute toughest schedule, but it has been a consistently tough bunch that he's faced. It helps that he beat Nebraska last Sunday.
These two met last season when Zargo bumped up from 141 to beat Jake in the dual by the score of 9-7. The Badger has spent the full season at 149, and he won't be under-sized for the weight. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a two-point win for the bad guy.
157. #84 JOE ROBERTS (5-6) versus #151 Cody Goebel (5-7). Wrestlestat.com has Luke Mechler (5-12) wrestling for the Badgers, but it has been Goebel the last two matches. Wrestlstat.com is calling for an ILLINI win over either of them, and we can see nothing to dispute that. The only caveat is that Joe has wrestled with a heavily bandaged hand the last four or five duals. He has a great resource to deal with that, though, in a coach who went to the NCAA Finals with huge wraps on a hand.
165. #48 CHRIS MOORE (7-8) versus #3 Dean Hamiti (20-1). Wrestlestat.com is calling for a tech fall for the stupid Badgers in this one. Hamiti has the great record and a history of two AA finishes. Chris Moore will want to get video of the three losses that Cameron Amine of Michigan put on Bucky Badger.
Maybe practice with Kannon, as that is the same style of pressure and forward push he'll see here. Amine beat him with good position. Bad position equals a cradle or multiple takedowns. Moore has wrestled an insanely tough schedule already, especially for a true Freshman. This match, if anything, will add to a very good RPI.
174. #11 EDMOND RUTH (14-2) versus #26 Max Maylor (12-3). Of his six years and two schools wrestling in college, this is by far Maylor's best. He started two years for Michigan but had a combined 18-27 record. These two have faced off twice with Edmond winning by tech fall at last year's MSU Open and by major decision at this year's Midlands.
Against common opponents, Ruth is 23-6 while his opponent is 11-14. The ILLINI is predicted to win by five by Wrestlestat.com. We think it'll be more.
184. #57 DYLAN CONNELL (4-6) versus #22 Shane Liegel (17-6). This is the Badger's fifth year wrestling in college. He has 114 wins but most of them came at DIII Loras College, where he won a Championship and placed twice. He was the surprise winner at the Midlands, while Connell was re-injured.
Wrestlestat.com is calling for a seven-point win for the Badger, but we think this is going to be a one-takedown match which can go either way. Against common opponents, Bucky has an apparent advantage but if you dig in you'll see that Connell has had to wrestle Nebraska's Pinto 3x and MSU's Malczewski 2x, while his opponent has only faced each once. Liegel is favored on paper, but in real life, this looks like a toss up. This would be a nice seeding win for Dylan in both post season tournaments.
197. #61 ISIAH PETTIGREW (5-6) versus #98 Josh Otto (1-8). We expected Pettigrew back for the Michigan State dual, and not only didn't he wrestle there, but he missed the match with Nebraska. If he can't go, we've seen CHASE WAGGONER, DANNY BRAUNAGEL and PETER MARINOPOULOS at the weight.
This is the third year starting for Otto, who has a career 10-37 record. At the dual last year, Edmond Ruth beat him 4-1. Jumping up two weights this year has been a bit of a disaster for him. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a two-point win for Pettigrew.
285. #157 PETER MARINOPOULOS (1-4) versus #112 Gannon Rosenfeld (1-11). We are happy to report that this is the first digital match in a month that Wrestlestat.com gave to LUKE LUFFMAN. It would be very exciting if the dual came down to this weight. We would probably see lots of leg attacks, as neither of these guys is big, although Rosenfeld might have 15-20 pounds on Peter.
Rosenfeld gave up a double-leg takedown to the Nebraska fatty, so you know he'd be susceptible to Marinopoulos's. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a six-point win for the Badger, but this is very toss-uppy.
Comments
Post a Comment