ILLINI versus MSU dual preview (NEB, too)

WHAT: ILLINI versus Michigan State dual

WHEN: Friday, February 2, at 7:00 pm (Central)

WHERE: State Farm Center, Champaign, ILLINOIS

TV/STREAMING: B1G+ (subscription streaming service)

TICKETS: Free

SERIES: From 2000 on, the ILLINI lead the series 12-2

LAST YEAR'S DUAL: 17-16 ILLINI in East Lansing

SPECIAL: Military Appreciation Night

SPECIAL x 2: ILLINI Wrestling Beanie for 1st 200 fans

Right arm perpendicular to the ground, perfect angle with the forearm, finger touches end of eyebrow. This soldier is as they say, "Good to Go!"

A DAY IN HISTORY

Strap yourself into the time machine. Keep your arms inside the device. We are going back to Sunday, February 23, 2003. Look around, do you see that television over there? Norah Jones is winning 5 Grammy Awards. Do you hear that? That's the number one song in America: All I have by Jennifer Lopez featuring LL Cool J.

Over to the Savoy 16, Anakin and his rat-tail are still killing it in Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones. We should warn everybody that rat-tails are always bad news. At home, your little brother still must wait a month for the release of The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Walker, and he's getting on your nerves.

But, friend, come with me to Huff Hall and let's watch my favorite ILLINI dual of all time. It is the #8 ILLINI versus a #9 Michigan State Spartan team full of future MMA stars and a Freestyle World Teamer. I'm starting to get nervous as I know Jason Potter is returning from an injury and Twan Pham has taken over for an injured Kyle Ott.

Most importantly, MSU just won the first two matches!

That sets up Pham versus Nick "The East Lansing Strangler" Simmons, and sure enough, we're on our feet yelling, "He's choking him." The ref finally sees it and awards the ILLINI wrestler one point. Twan Pham then scores three takedowns in the match for the 8-6 upset victory!

Next up, Mark Jayne scores a key bonus point in the match with a major decision over his Spartan opponent. Remember that extra point; it will come in handy!

Michigan State has two ranked wrestlers at 141 and 149, and they both win with one of them earning the major decision. That sets up a showdown between Freshman Alex Tirapelle and #4 Gray Maynard. Tirapelle gets the only takedown and wins!

Matt Lackey is next, and he scores a major decision in his match--remember that extra point as well. Brian Glynn hits the mat to face future MMA star Rashad Evans, and he seals the deal for the ILLINI. The final is 17-16 thanks to the Pham and Tirapelle upsets and the Jayne and Lackey bonus points. GO ILLINI!!!

197: #6 Nik Fekete (MSU) dec. #13 Tyrone Byrd (ILL), 4-6 0-3
Hwt: John Wechter (MSU) dec. Chris Little (ILL), 2-7 0-6
125: #14 Twan Pham (ILL) dec. #5 Nick Simmons (MSU), 8-6 3-6
133: #9 Mark Jayne (ILL) major dec. Shane Martin (MSU), 19-6 7-6
141: #17 Ryan L'Amoreaux (MSU) dec. Cal Ferry (ILL), 2-3 7-9
149: #11 Karl Nadolsky (MSU) major dec. Tony Pedrosa (ILL), 5-13 7-13
157: #7 Alex Tirapelle (ILL) dec. #4 Gray Maynard (MSU), 3-1 10-13
165: #1 Matt Lackey (ILL) major dec. Arsen Aleksanyan (MSU), 13-5 14-13
174: #8 Brian Glynn (ILL) dec. #19 Rashad Evans (MSU), 3-1 17-13
184: Nick Mesyn (MSU) dec. #14 Jason Potter (ILL), 1-2 17-16

WHY WE HATE MICHIGAN STATE

They are basically ill-mannered Canadians. If Wisconsin had any guts, it would invade and annex the Upper Peninsula. It's right there, eh! Moreover, you always hear about this "Upper Peninsula," but you never hear about any lower peninsula. Why the secrecy? What's it up to?

WRESTLING QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Anyone who has ever put on a wrestling singlet knows that the person you’re actually wrestling is yourself. It’s about discovering what your own personal strengths and weaknesses are."

-- Matthew Modine, Actor

WRESTLING MOVIE POSTER OF THE DAY

They took the movie Vision Quest to Italy back in the day. Guess who got top billing? What would Danny Pucino, member of the Italian National Freestyle team, say about that? Coaches Mike Poeta and Steve Marianetti?

Matthew Modine on this poster: "While visiting Rome to discuss a potential film role, Modine saw a giant poster of the singer’s face, with 'Crazy for You' printed in Italian. 'I thought, "Oh, she must be doing a concert here." But then I looked at the poster a little bit closer and at the bottom I saw myself [in a scene from the film] with my arms in the air. The movie had gone from being a Matthew Modine movie that Madonna was in to a Madonna movie that Matthew Modine was in!"

LAST SEASONS' DUAL

The teams finished 5-5 in match wins up at East Lansing thanks to a paper upset by Jake Harrier. The difference-making win was Danny Pucino's tech fall, which acted like a rock to Caleb Fish's major decision scissors. Here was that box score:

125:	Maximo Renteria dec. Benny Gomez, 5-1	ILL 3 \| MSU 0
133:	#10 Lucas Byrd dec. #18 Rayvon Foley, 8-1	ILL 6 I MSU 0
141:	#16 Danny Pucino tech. fall Blake Noonan, 23-8 (6:15)	ILL 11 I MSU 0
149:	Jake Harrier dec. Peyton Omania, 8-4	ILL 14 I MSU 0
157:	#12 Chase Saldate dec. Anthony Federico, 2-0	ILL 14 I MSU 3
165:	#27 Caleb Fish major dec. #20 Danny Braunagel, 12-4	ILL 14 I MSU 7
174:	#12 Edmond Ruth dec. Ceasar Garza, 13-7	ILL 17 I MSU 7
184:	#14 Layne Malczewski dec. #24 Dylan Connell, 2-0	ILL 17 I MSU 10
197:	#21 Cameron Caffey dec. #10 Zac Braunagel, 6-4	ILL 17 I MSU 13
HWT:	Ryan Vasbinder dec. Matt Wroblewski, 1-0	ILL 17 I MSU 16

Photo by Jennifer Butler/University of ILLINOIS Athletic Department

THE SEASONS SO FAR

By all rights, the ILLINI should have another win in the win column, but Northwestern called in the rare "total team duck." That match has been rescheduled for February 18 at Evanston. The ILLINI are 3-5 with wins over SIUE (28-7), Central Michigan (32-3) and North Carolina (20-13). The losses have been to Navy (18-23), Pitt (9-22), Missouri (6-29), Ohio State (6-36) and stupid Iowa (6-36).

MSU is 8-3 and 1-3 in conference. Their wins have been over Bloomsburg (49-0), Presbyterian (53-0), Buffalo (26-9), Clarion (25-13), American (28-12) and Wisconsin (22-15). Their losses have been to Michigan (12-29), Rutgers (13-22) and Penn State (0-35). Since their last match and, by far, best win was at home over the Badgers, let's look at that box score:

Photo by Jennifer Butler/University of ILLINOIS Athletic Department

INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS

We were going to go to a different format involving only "key matchups," but in this dual it appears that all of the matchups are key. Moreover, MSU has gotten a lot of pinfalls on the year, and you know that a three-point regular decision is trumped by the six-point pin.

To further that point, it should be noted that Wrestlestat.com is calling for an 18-16 Michigan State victory in the dual, and the ILLINI total includes a pinfall by Kannon Webster and a major decision by Tony Madrigal. At least that algorithm is already giving a head-scratching decision to the MSU heavy over Luke Luffman, who we know won't be able to wrestle. All rankings/ratings below are from Wrestlestat.com unless otherwise noted.

125. #79 JUSTIN CARDANI versus #43 Tristan Lujan. The ILLINI is 2-0 lifetime over Lujan with a one-point and a two-point win. Yet, Wrestlestat.com is calling for the two-point win for the Spartan. This is a huge match for Justin if he intends to get a decent seed at the conference tournament. Lujan is coming off a close 2-4 loss to Wisconsin's AA Eric Barnett. Cardani is coming off an 18-3 tech fall loss to National Qualifier Drake Ayala. That's not good, but the Cardani has to put that aside because the ILLINI really, really need this win.

133. #54 ANTHONY MADRIGAL versus #186 Andrew Hampton. Here the Wrestlestat.com prediction machine is going with a major for the ILLINI. Madrigal is 3-0 against common opponents, while the first-year starter from MSU with a 4-16 record is 0-2. Four of the Spartan's losses have been by fall, another four have been by tech. Another three losses have been by major.

That means the kid is going to give up at least one bonus point in over 68% of his losses, and that also means 55% of his total matches end with him giving up at least one bonus point. What the ILLINI need here are the entire six points. Tony has missed a few duals due to injury, and if he can't make it, expect to see KOLE BROWER.

141. #39 DANNY PUCINO versus #24 Jordan Hamdan. The 16-5 Michigan State kid won four Michigan state high school championships. However, he's up at 141, and he's pretty small for the weight. Danny has had trouble in the past with the big bruisers, and maybe that's why Wrestlestat.com is calling for an ILLINI win in this match. We think this'll be a close match and another one that the ILLINI need to win the dual.

Though they both wrestled at the Midlands recently, they didn't see each other, even though Pucino finished fourth, while Hamdan finished fifth. Of note: Danny didn't wrestle against Iowa in the last dual. No word on why. True Freshman WILL BAYSINGAR got the call.

[EDITOR'S NOTE]: Social media posts have seemed to indicate that Danny Pucino and Isiah Pettigrew will be back for this dual.

149. #9 KANNON WEBSTER versus #156 Braden Stauffenberg. Hailing from Yorkville and Aurora Christian, Stauffenberg was fun to watch on team ILLINOIS in high school. He'll have a tough task in front of him against a Kannon Webster who's on fire. Another matchup between stud ILLINOIS schoolboys!

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a pin for Kannon, and Stauffenberg's 5-13 record makes us a believer. However, in his 18 matches this year (20 if you include non-D1), the Spartan has only surrendered two falls. He has had a rough start to his first year in the starting lineup for Sparty with a current 0-5 losing streak. We expect a tech fall, but would like a pinfall. Braden is very good with his upper body, but then, Kannon is somewhat of a Greco guy himself.

157. #74 JOE ROBERTS versus #21 Chase Saldate. The heavier favorites for MSU are in the upper weights, and it starts here. Saldate has a spledid 17-4 record, and he's been a four-time NCAA qualifier with a R12 in there. Interestingly, one of his four losses this year was to Johnny Lovett, the same fellow who Joe upset in the CMU dual.

Saldate is a big-move pinner with eight already this season. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a six-point win for the Spartan, and until Joe heals up fully, that might be right. Against common opponents, "the Mustache" hasn't kept up with him, going 5-12 to Saldate's 15-13.

165. #41 CHRIS MOORE versus #11 Caleb Fish. The Spartan started the year with a tech fall loss to Wisconsin's Dean Hamiti. Yet, in his last match, he only lost to the Badger by two points in the dual. Since the new year, Fish has beaten Cam Amine of Michigan and the #14 wrestler from Ohio. He has a very fine 18-6 record. In both prior seasons with MSU, Fish has been an NCAA Qualifier, finishing R12 last year.

Yet, this was a one-point match at the Midlands, and by one-point match, we really mean one point. Fish won 1-0 over Chris Moore. The Spartan will be a big favorite; Wrestlestat.com is calling for a six-point win, but Chris has already felt him and will know what to expect.

174. #9 EDMOND RUTH versus #85 DJ Shannon. Well, there's a familiar face! Shannon was on the ILLINI squad for three years (and started two of them) before transferring to Michigan State. The Spartan has a stellar misdirection single that he used in the UTC dual in 2021 to help the ILLINI win.

He has a 7-12 record against D1 this season, and is on a six-match-losing streak that started at the Midlands. Edmond is 10-4 against common opponents, while Shannon is 3-10. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a 7-3 win for the ILLINI. Sparty has only given up a bonus point in three matches this season, once to Shane Griffith and twice to a Michigan reserve.

184. #51 DYLAN CONNELL versus #17 Layne Malczewski. These guys wrestled a tight one in the dual last year with Malczewski picking up the 2-0 win. The Spartan is now a six-year veteran on his squad with four of those years leading to NCAA Qualifier status. He's a twisty, shifty fellow for a big guy. Luckily, Dylan Connell likes to keep great position.

The MSU kid has a big advantage against common opponents with his 14-6 record versus Connell's 6-11 mark. Both of these guys are quality, and both have been injured this year and had problems at the Midlands. Wrestlestat.com is predicting an 8-6 win for the bad guy. It would be an upset if Dylan were to win.

On top of all that, Malczewski gained some confidence in his recent dual win over the Badger who won Midlands. His second-most recent match was against PSU's Bernie Truax, and he only lost 2-4. Coming back from an injury and a re-injury, Dylan got a confidence-building win himself against Iowa in his last match. If he can't go, we've seen CADEN ERND and COOPER WETTIG in this role. Also, CHARLIE HEYDORN is a possibility.

197. #60 ISIAH PETTIGREW versus #51 Kael Wisler. We don't know if Pettigrew will be back for this one, but our fingers are crossed. PETER MARINOPOULOS and JOEY BRAUNAGEL have fought in his absence in recent duals. CHASE WAGGONER is another option. One of those fellows might be needed to man the heavyweight spot as well, so, man, it is all in flux due to Pettigrew's and LUKE LUFFMAN'S injuries.

Wisler will be a pretty heavy favorite against Marinopoulos or Braunagel, but Wrestlestat.com is calling this a one-point match if Pettigrew gets the call. Coming off an injury and his conditioning impacted to some extent, you'd expect he would be a serious underdog. Isiah has shown us his gas tank, and it was pretty full. Hopefully, it is back up to "F."

[EDITOR'S NOTE]: Social media posts have seemed to indicate that Danny Pucino and Isiah Pettigrew will be back for this dual.

285. #151 PETER MARINOPOULOS versus #44 Josh Terrill. We don't know who will fill Luuuke Luffman's shoes here. DANIEL RENSHAW, the kid from Mahomet, is on the roster but he's seen limited action at opens. Terrill is almost a full-sized heavy, so he'll outweigh everybody here. He's also got a pretty sweet 24-9 record on the season. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision against Marinopoulos.

Then again, Wrestlestat.com predicted that the Spartan would beat Luke Luffman 7-4. The algorithm must not take into account this 10-0 tech fall the ILLINI put on him over the Summer:

Sure, gut wrenches have little value in Folk Style, but still.

CONCLUSION

ILLINOIS must beat MSU at home on February 2, then hit the road for a dual with Nebraska two days later on February 4. It would be easier for the ILLINI to overlook MSU than it will be for the Spartans to overlook the ILLINI, as the team from Michigan faces Indiana on the fourth.

At least the ILLINI get to sleep in their own beds for the Spartan dual. On the other hand, this weekend is the first of three consecutive two-dual weekends for the team. One dual on Friday, then another on Sunday.

_________________________

WHAT: ILLINI versus NEBRASKA dual

WHEN: Sunday, February 4 at 2PM (Central)

WHERE: Stupid Lincoln, Nebraska

TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription streaming service)

SPECIAL: To watch in person, you have to be in Nebraska, which really, really sucks

WHY WE HATE NEBRASKA

They call themselves the Cornhuskers even though in 2020, ILLINOIS produced 341 million bushels of corn more than the so-called Cornhuskers. 341 MILLION! They must be "husking" ILLINOIS corn. It's like they proudly won the JV corn-producing tournament.

On top of that, their capital is named "Lincoln" after you-know-who. They are our creepy little brother who keeps popping up at high school even though we told him, "When I'm with my friends, don't stop, just keep walking, you're embarrassing me."

INTERESTING OR KEY MATCHUPS

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 29-6 win for Nebraska, and that's with LUKE LUFFMAN beating their heavyweight. Gulp. There will still be some compelling matchups. Additionally, there are other matches that can be used as yardsticks to measure how much the young ILLINI are improving. Rankings are from Wrestlestat.com unless otherwise noted.

149. #9 KANNON WEBSTER versus #1 Ridge Lovett. This right here is worth the price of admission. How will the wunderkind do against an NCAA Finalist? Both have been age-group reps for the USA, and both were Fargo Greco Champs. Recently, they both beat Caleb Rathjen, Lovett winning 6-0, while Webster won 4-1 in SV.

The Husker is 19-0 on the season and obviously has a huge experience and age advantage, this being his fifth year in the lineup. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 7-6 win for the kid from Nebraska. At Intermat, Lovett is ranked #1, while Kannon shows up at #8. By the way, Caleb Henson of Virginia Tech is at #2 in that ranking, and the Cornhusker already beat him by one point this season at Cliff Keen based on a slick duckunder. Flowrestling has Webster at #10.

On top, Lovett likes to figure-four the upper thigh and ride legs, even with both legs in. The coaches and Kannon will need to decide whether to take bottom in this match. Both wrestlers like to be the aggressor and push forward. It will be an epic battle between good versus evil, blonde versus brunette, Heaven versus Hell.

174. #9 EDMOND RUTH versus #45 Bubba Wilson. This should be a win for the ILLINI, even Wrestlestat.com is predicting a six-point margin. Wilson started out the year at 165 but moved up. He's strong, so that might not be too much of a problem. The big problem will be dealing with Ruth.

Bubba is 12-7 and coming off a 4-2 loss to #29 Max Maylor of Wisconsin. Edmond is 5-1 versus common opponents, while the Husker is 1-4. It's good that Wilson now gets to eat a little, but I don't think that helps him against a likely pissed-off ILLINI.

165. #45 CHRIS MOORE versus #16 Antrell Taylor. You have Taylor ranked #18 by Intermat, while Chris Moore (egregiously undervalued by Wrestlestat.com) at #24. The Husker has a nice 14-4 record, while Moore clocks in at 7-5. Taylor does a pretty good Edmond Ruth impression going for body locks and bear hugs, but Chris should have some experience with that in practice.

Both are super quick and built strongly. This could be a one-takedown match (although we think there will be more takedowns than that in it, even if the first period ends 0-0). Wrestlestat.com's algorithm is calling for a four-point win for Nebraska.

OTHER MATCHES OF INTEREST include ANTHONY MADRIGAL or KOLE BROWER versus the redshirt Freshman Jacob Van Dee at 133, DANNY PUCINO versus a highly-ranked Brock Hardy, where the ILLINI is 0-1 and has room to improve immensely on that loss, and DYLAN CONNELL versus Lenny Pinto. Connell's coming off a win against Iowa, and although he's lost twice to Pinto (once by MFF), it will certainly be an interesting match.

Search This Blog

THE ILLINI WRESTLING BLOG AND FORUM

ILLINI versus MSU dual preview (NEB, too)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

ILLINI WRESTLE-OFFS

The ILLINI Midlands Preview

ILLINOIS VS. SIUE PREVIEW