ILLINI versus Iowa Dual Preview (and the new JOMBO™)
WHAT: ILLINI versus Iowa dual
WHEN: Friday, January 26 at 8:00 pm (Central)
WHERE: Historic Huff Hall, Champaign, ILLINOIS
TV/STREAMING: BTN (on the network); BTN+ (next day replay streaming)
TICKETS: Free
SPECIAL: Orange Out (wear Orange)
SPECIAL X 2: Foam Fingers to 1st 200 Fans
SPECIAL X 3: Free Kids Clinic (see below)
A DAY IN HISTORY
Travel back with us in our hot tub time machine to February 4, 1999. The New York Post reports that Barbie™ will soon have tattoos, but that didn't happen for another ten years. The Senate impeachment trial of Bill Clinton concludes after hearing videotaped testimony from Monica Lewinsky.
Patch Adams and Saving Private Ryan are neck and neck at the box office, while Britney Spears tops the charts with ...Baby One More Time. The highest grossing video game today is Pokémon Red / Blue / Yellow.
But over to historic Huff Hall there are grown men at work. ILLINI men. They are handing the Iowa Hawkeyes an "L." The match starts at 165 with a pin by Bill Zeman. Then, Nate Patrick wins, and so does Freshman John Lockhart, who's stepping in for an injured Karl Roesler. Then, at 125, Steve Doerrer steps up with a big win.
After three straight Hawkeye victories, and the ILLINI holding on to a Cardani-thin 17-16 lead, Griff Powell is out there right now pulling off the upset over the #8 wrestler in the country. ILLINI WIN!
Here's the box score from the Daily ILLINI:
WHY WE HATE IOWA
There is actually a literary reason to hate Iowa. If you're at all familiar with The Dictionary of Evil Things, then you know that the word "Iowa" is sandwiched between the words "Herpes" and "Jaundice." See for yourself:
H
Herpes: A virus infection that can cause painful blisters or ulcers.
I
Iowa: A state in America that can cause painful blisters or ulcers.
J
Jaundice: The effect on your body from exposure to Herpes or Iowa.
LAST YEAR'S DUAL
The ILLINI put a real scare into the Hawkeyes up to Iowa City last season. It came down to heavyweight after Zac Braunagel's win over Jacob Warner at 197.
Because of injury, graduation, illegal betting, transfers and lineup changes, the only faces that remain the same are Danny Pucino, Patrick Kennedy, Edmond Ruth, Dylan Connell and maybe Cullan Schriever. Here's that box score:
125: Spencer Lee (Iowa) defeated Maximo Renteria (Fall 2:24)
133: Lucas Byrd defeated Cullan Schriever (Iowa) (Fall 2:58)
141: Danny Pucino defeated Drew Bennett (Iowa) (Major Dec. 20-8)
149: Max Murin (Iowa) defeated Kevon Davenport (Fall 3:37)
157: Mike Carr defeated Cobe Siebrecht (Iowa) (Dec. 12-7)
165: Patrick Kennedy (Iowa) defeated Danny Braunagel (Major Dec. 15-4)
174: Edmond Ruth defeated Nelson Brands (Iowa) (TB-1, 3-1)
184: Abe Assad (Iowa) defeated Dylan Connell (Dec. 3-1)
197: Zac Braunagel defeated Jacob Warner (Iowa) (Dec. 3-1)
285: Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) defeated Matt Wroblewski (DQ, stall out)
THE SEASON SO FAR
The season so far for the ILLINI has had its ups and downs. Much of that due to injuries and illnesses. The ILLINI are 3-4 with wins over SIUE (28-7), Central Michigan (32-3), and North Carolina (20-13). the losses were to Navy (18-23), Pitt (9-22), Missouri (6-29) and Ohio State (6-36).
There should be another victory in the win column, but Northwestern recently conducted a full-team duck. That match was postponed due to a medical condition with the Wildcat team.
The Hawkeyes are 8-0 on the season so far. They have beaten Cal Baptist (40-0), Oregon State (25-11), Iowa State (18-14), Penn (22-13), Columbia (38-3), Nebraska (22-10), Minnesota (22-9) and Purdue (34-6).
WRESTLESTAT AND OTHER NUMBERS
Before going into individual matchups, it should be noted where the Hawkeyes have given up the most points during their duals. At 184, Iowa has only won 2 of 8 dual matches, while at 133, they are 4-4. At 125, 149 and 285, they have lost 2 of 8 dual matchups. At the remaining weights, the Hawkeyes have lost one or zero matches during duals.
Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 27-6 win for the bad guys. The only ILLINI winners according to their algorithm will be Kannon Webster and Dylan Connell. It has Edmond Ruth losing to Patrick Kennedy!
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
125. #80 JUSTIN CARDANI versus #6 Drake Ayala. Over to the Wrestlestat.com machine, we find a prediction for a Hawkeye major in this match. The two wrestled almost exactly two years ago with Ayala coming away with the 7-4 victory. Justin is 7 and 18, while the Iowa kid is 9 and 8 against common opponents. Ayala is 11-2 on the year and was even ranked #1 by one of the services before losing to Purdue's Matt Ramos in his last dual.
133. #54 ANTHONY MADRIGAL versus #20 Brody Teske. We are into conference season, and Tony's record is only 1-2. He will need to get some wins, and some good wins, fast to ensure a post-season appearance. That is, unless he's banking on upsetting somebody in the B1G tournament. Here's a chance for a win and a good win. Teske is coming off a dual loss against Nebraska's Jacob Van Dee by the score of 4-10.
That's a pretty bad loss considering he beat the same kid at the Soldier Salute by a 5-4 margin. Teske is a scrapper, and usually in very good condition. Some of those wily veteran tilts on the part of the ILLINI would come in handy here.
Is he recovered from a couple of early-season hamstring injuries? If not, we'll see KOLE BROWER in his place. Based on prior Iowa duals this season, 133 is one of their weakest weights, so the ILLINI would like to capitalize. Note that it was Cullan Schriever who wrestled in their last dual against Purdue, picking up a major against Dustin Norris.
141. #37 DANNY PUCINO versus #1 Real Woods. In our recent inaugural "Threeee Is the New Twoooo" podcast, Brian Swaw noted that Danny seemed to face a top 141lber every week. We were previewing the dual against Northwestern, and the Wildcats offered nobody nearly that good. Of course, that dual was postponed meaning Pucino will have to face #1 Woods next.
Woods will be a huge favorite here, but it will be interesting to see two former ILLINOIS schoolboys go at it. Danny will need to rely on his gas tank and trickeration. Woods would like to slow the match down when it gets to the third period. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision for the Hawkeye. Will we get to see Izzy Martinez and his Izzy Style boyz in the crowd? Hope so.
149. #9 KANNON WEBSTER versus #35 Caleb Rathjen. Wrestlestat.com lists Rathjen as the starter here, but it was #24 Victor Voinovich who wrestled in Iowa's last dual against Purdue. In fact, Voinovich has wrestled in 5 duals, while Rathjen toed the mark three times. Rathjen beat Voinovich 6-3 at the Soldier Salute, and he also first-period-teched him at Junior duals back in 2021. Yet, Voinovich had a very convincing tech fall win over Purdue's Marcos Polanco.
Neither of the Iowa wrestlers have ever faced Webster or JAKE HARRIER. I think Rathjen eventually wins the spot, as he's a goer and puts points on the board, while Voinovich is more of a defensive 2 to 1 or 4 to 3 wrestler.
A showdown between Kannon and him would be interesting because they both like to move their opponents around with constant pressure. I'd think either Hawkeye might be pulling too much weight to keep up with the ILLINI in the third period. Wrestlestat.com predicts a solid 8-2 win for Kannon over the 8-2 Rathjen, but only a 5-3 win over Voinovich.
157. #75 JOE ROBERTS versus #4 Jared Franek. The Hawkeye is 11-1 on the season and finished in 4th at the NCAAs last year with a 27-3 record. He will be a huge favorite in this match. It doesn't help that Joe has had a hand injury that required it to be completely wrapped up, leaving him with questionable grip strength.
Wrestlestat.com is calling this a regular decision. Franek doesn't usually light up the scoreboard, so we can see that. The Hawkeye has had one bonus point win (out of 11) against a D-1 wrestler not ranked below #164 (a Minnesota third-stringer). Plus, Roberts is methodical and is a good defender.
165. #40 CHRIS MOORE versus #5 Michael Caliendo. We ask only that Caliendo respect his Batavia, ILLINOIS roots and unconditionally surrender this match to Moore. Here we have two IHSA and IKWF superstars going after each other.
Moore had a real nice Midlands tournament with five wins, and for that hard work, he's seen his Wrestlestat.com ranking go up by 110 points in four weeks. As the true Freshman, he would seem to be at a disadvantage in this matchup, and that is true. He will win the handshake, but Caliendo is a returning AA with a 12-1 record on the season.
Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision, but we think not. In his two most recent matches, the Hawkeye beat #48 Stony Buell of Purdue by five and Minnesota's #35 Blaine Brenner by four in those duals. As you can see, their ratings basically bracket the rating of Chris Moore.
There is also the possibility that we see CADEN ERND here or at a heavier weight. He's helped out a lot at the upper weights while maintaining his certification at 165.
174. #9 EDMOND RUTH versus #5 Patrick Kennedy. Stop the Insanity! Wrestlestat.com is allotting the 6-5 win in this match to Kennedy. The Hawk has a nice 8-2 record on the year, but he's also been at 165 until recently.
Moreover, Kennedy's two losses on the season have been to Caliendo at 165 and to Penn's Nick Incontrera at 174, a guy who Edmond has beaten twice.
It is possible that we see Gabe Arnold in the dual, but I would think that Brands, as crazy as he might be, wouldn't want Arnold's first meeting with Ruth to take place during his wrestler's true Freshman year. But you never know what a crazy person will do!
The person we know we won't see in black and gold is Nelson Brands.
184. #52 DYLAN CONNELL versus #78 Aiden Riggins. As noted above, this is the weight where Iowa loses most of their dual points. Riggins is 1-5 in duals with the one win coming against a Cal Baptist wrestler with a losing record and ranked #117. Brennan Swafford would most likely be in the lineup at this weight, but he hasn't seen the mat since mid-November.
The only two questions that we have are: (1) Is Connell healed from his recent injury and re-injury?, and (2) How is his gas tank? If Dylan is looking for a good NCAA seed and another spot in that tournament, he's behind the eight-ball right now with a 3-4 record. This is a must-win for him.
197. #151 PETER MARINOPOULOS versus #15 Zach Glazier. The biggest surprise in the Iowa lineup this season has been the performance of Glazier, who is in his fifth year on the team and first year not sitting on the bench behind Washington's Jacob Warner. The Hawkeye's 11-0 on the season with some really huge wins, including a major decision over Nebraska's Silas Alred and a DQ win over A.J. BigMouth.
We know that ISIAH PETTIGREW cannot go for the ILLINI, as he's injured. That's too bad. Would've loved to have seen that match! Instead, we hope that Marinopoulos watches Glazier's two matches this year with Garrett Joles of Minnesota, both of which were very close. Joles is similar in many ways (except experience) to the ILLINI. If Peter can unleash his leg attacks--that double is quick and powerful--he can avoid the pinfall that Wrestlestat.com is predicting.
285. #61 SUNGYUP RYU versus #34 Bradley Hill. LOL, Wrestlestat.com had Hill beating LUKE LUFFMAN. Well, it won't be Luuuke at the dual. He's out. Instead, you can expect to see Sungyup "Richard" Ryu. We expect the ILLINI to perform much better in this dual than he did against OSU's Nick Feldman.
Hill isn't as big or as strong or as quick as Feldman, but he will outweigh Sungyup, and he will be the heavy favorite in the match. Hill favors a knee pull, a high crotch and a sweep single. Ryu will want to catch him underneath after an attempted high crotch. He will also want to get out quickly, as Hill has a punishing ride. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision here.
THE "THREEEE IS THE NEW TWOOOO" PODCAST
Brian Swaw and I interviewed ZANE RICHARDS and DANNY and ZAC BRAWLNAGEL for the inaugural Threeee Is the New Twoooo podcast. Those are your IRTC Olympic hopefuls and World Teamers. We really loved talking to these guys because they are not only fantastic wrestlers, but great people with sharp minds. Danny actually used the phrase, "A village of Braunagels...." in the interview.
We also broke down the Northwestern dual that didn't happen.
Our tight schedule calls for another podcast out on Thursday morning with interviews of one or two more ILLINI Legends, as well as a preview of the ILLINI / Iowa dual. This was our first episode:
THE GREAT ESCAPE KIDS CLINIC
A free clinic before the dual with expert instruction from two-time National Champion Jesse Delgado and two-time All American Lucas Byrd. What kid wouldn't want this? What wrestling parent wouldn't want that for their kid?
Comments
Post a Comment