PREVIEW: The ILLINI versus Missouri

AI GENERATED IN RENAISSANCE STYLE WITH PROMPT ILLINI WRESTLER VERSUS MISSOURI WRESTLER

WHAT:  ILLINI versus Missouri Dual

WHEN:  Thursday, December 21, at 7:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  Stifel Theater, St. Louis, Missouri 

ALL-TIME SERIES:  ILLINI 21-12

TV/STREAMING: UFC Fight Pass

TICKETS:  Ticketmaster ($10-$125)

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:  Mizzou to the Lou

WHY WE HATE MISSOURI

Take the name for this dual. It's "Mizzou to the Lou." I had no idea what the hell they were talking about until I realized "Lou" was supposed to be short for "St. Louis." Now if that isn't the stupidest ******* thing I've ever heard! 

Imagine with me the junior assistant athletic director at a meeting with university and city officials, putting that up on the screen and holding his or her breath. And then the higher ups—instead of firing this chode on the spot—say, "That's great," and, "Let's run with it." I hate Missouri. 

AI generated in Impressionist style using same prompt. The AI thinks very little of the human spine.

UPDATE ON 12/20/23

We watched a few of the Missouri versus Air Force dual matches over to FloWrestling. The Tigers wrestled this dual last Sunday, so there's only four days between that match and the one against ILLINOIS. A general observation first, and then some specific observations about individual wrestlers. Brian Smith must've told his charges to get the early takedown, as they were all in on something within the first ten or twenty seconds, sometimes right off the whistle.

Peyton Mocco appeared to roll his ankle in his match. He was able to continue but gimped along a little. Of course, fighting through a rolled ankle after it's been taped up is do-able; the question is how much did it swell up overnight, and was he able to train the last couple of days? Similarly, Zach Elam twisted his knee, yelled out, and took injury time in his match. It happened near the end of that bout, so there was little time to tell how the injury affected him. 

Josh Edmond likes the double and the high crotch, and he will misdirection with both. He might not have all his lung capacity yet, so it will be interesting to see how he handles Pucino's never-empty gas tank. Noah Surtin did what ILLINOIS kids can do: Go for the big throws. Sometimes that put him in danger. Will he dare try that against another ILLINOIS wrestler? 

A DAY IN HISTORY

Travel back in time with us, back to Thursday, November 14, 2019. Back when Midway, Last Christmas and Doctor Sleep sold the most tickets at movie theaters, and radios were playing Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi and Circles by Post Malone. 

The bad times. 

Your stupid little brother is antsy in his pantsy because Pokemon Sword and Shield comes out the next day. But as obnoxious as all of that was—and it was an otherwise outrageously awful day—you had the ILLINI save it by defeating the Missouri Tigers in THE LOU: 

125: Justin Cardani (ILL) dec. Dack Punke (MIZ), 4-0, ILL 3, MIZ 0 

133: No. 9 Travis Piotrowski (ILL) dec. No. 25 Alan Hart (MIZ), 4-3, ILL 6, MIZ 0
141: No. 5 Grant Leeth (MIZ), major dec. We Rachal (ILL), 10-2, ILL 6, MIZ 4
149: No. 2 Brock Mauller (MIZ) major dec. Mousa Jodeh (ILL), 12-3, MIZ 8, ILL 6
157: No. 14 Jarrett Jacques (MIZ) dec. No. 16 Eric Barone (ILL), 7-2, MIZ 11, ILL 6
165: No. 23 Danny Braunagel (ILL) dec. Peyton Mocco (MIZ), 11-5, MIZ 11, ILL 9 
174: No. 18 Joey Gunther (ILL) SV-1 No. 8 Connor Flynn, 4-2, ILL 12, MIZ 11
184: No. 18 Zac Braunagel (ILL) major dec. Canten Marriott (MIZ), 15-6. ILL 16, MIZ 11 
197: No. 20 Wyatt Koelling (MIZ) dec. Matt Wroblewski (ILL), 6-2, ILL 16, MIZ 14
285: Luke Luffman (ILL) dec. Rodrigo Diaz (MIZ), 9-7, ILL 19, MIZ 14

ST. LOUIS - Fighting Illini wrestling secured a dramatic, 19-14 victory over No. 13 Missouri Thursday night at Francis Howell High School in St. Louis. Trailing, 11-6, at intermission, the Illini won four of the last five bouts of the night to take the dual. With the score at 16-14, the match came down to the heavyweight bout, and Illini freshman Luke Luffman delivered with a come-from-behind, 9-7, decision victory over Rodrigo Diaz to win Illinois the match and send the Illini to 2-1 on the season.  

"Guys wrestled with a lot of pride, energy and heart," said head coach Jim Heffernan. We had five freshmen in the lineup, and what a fantastic job by (Luke) Luffman! (Joey) Gunther's win was incredible. He found a way to win against a very good guy (No. 8 Connor Flynn). I'm very proud of our effort."

AI generated using the same prompt. The Mizzou wrestler appears to be wearing a knight's helmet. WTF? 

CURRENT RECORDS

The ILLINI are 3-2 so far on the season with wins over SIUE (28-7), Central Michigan (32-3) and North Carolina 20-13. The losses were to Navy (18-23) and Pitt (9-22). Missouri is 4-0 with wins over Arizona State (39-6), Oklahoma (30-12) and Wyoming (40-6). The Tigers just whomped Air Force on December 17 (38-3) with only the Air Force 184lber winning in SV. That match was just four days before the ILLINI dual at THE LOU.

HOW TO WATCH UFC FIGHT PASS

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WRESTLESTAT PREDICTION

Well, this isn't very good news. That engine is predicting a Missouri victory by the score of 29-6 with the only ILLINI wins coming from Anthony Madrigal (last seen clutching his hamstring in the dual with Pitt) and Edmond Ruth. There are some questions about the ILLINI lineup, including starters Luke Odom, Jake Harrier, Kannon Webster and Dylan Connell. We'll discuss that more in the next section. 

INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS 

125.  #74 JUSTIN CARDANI versus #13 Noah Surtin. The two have very similar records against common opponents, but Surtin is 8-0 on the year and has an SV win over #19 Jore Volk of Wyoming, along with a nice major decision win over #35 Conrad Hendriksen of Oklahoma. Justin is 2-3 on the year and coming off of three straight losses. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major decision here, but we think that's unlikely to happen unless that shoulder is still giving the ILLINI some problems. Surtin is from Edwardsville, so he's pretty familiar to ILLINI fans. 

133.  #48 ANTHONY MADRIGAL versus #89 Zeke Seltzer. The algorithm is calling for a four-point win for the ILLINI in this one. But is Madrigal recovered from that nagging hamstring injury? KOLE BROWER will be there if Madrigal cannot wrestle. Additionally, Missouri has #67 Kade Moore at this weight, and he's already wrestled in two duals this year (including their last one against Air Force) and another last season. Seltzer is 2-5 and might not see the mat. There are too many variables in play here to make any kind of prediction. 

141.  #41 DANNY PUCINO versus #28 Josh Edmond. The Tiger has the better record against common opponents, 5-3 to 5-7, but Danny is coming off the biggest win of his college career, and he looked very good doing it. Edmond is 6-2 on the year with his best win coming against the #47 wrestler by major. The Tiger does have NCAA tournament experience, although it was a bad experience (0-2), and his 17-11 record that year was nice but not spectacular. Pucino is certainly a live dog in this one, even a favorite if you go by the Intermat poll. But can this dog hunt? 

Whenever Danny does something spectacular, especially if it involves some kind of funk, we like to say that his opponent "GOT PUCINO'D." It would be nice to see the Missouri fart smeller GET PUCINO'D. 

149.  #162 JAKE HARRIER versus #21 Nathan Pulliam. We had thought that KANNON WEBSTER had removed his redshirt, but then it was Jake Harrier who wrestled against Pitt. Was there an illness or something else that kept Webster out of the lineup that night? We don't know. Webster is no longer in the Intermat rankings. 

This is a toss up match between Pulliam and Harrier, as the Tiger has a victory against the ILLINI, but it was only 7-6. 

Another variable is the fact that #85 Logan Gioffre has wrestled in more Missouri duals this year than Pulliam, including the last one against Air Force. Pulliam is 3-0 on the season, while Gioffre is 4-2. This is a match that Wrestlestat.com is giving to the Tigers, but the ILLINI can win here. 

157.  #50 JOE ROBERTS versus #7 Brock Mauller. What a great name for a wrestler! Nobody expects you to be sneaky good if your name is Joe Roberts, but he's had a sneaky good season so far that has included an upset over #23 Johnny Lovett and a solid win over Jonathan Key of Navy. 

On the other hand, if your name is Brock Mauller, then the girls in the sorority always say, "Your name's Brock Mauller? I bet you're a gross wrestler. Tee Hee." As a three-time AA and four-time qualifier in his fifth season starting for Missouri, he will be the heavy favorite. If Joe Roberts can slow this match down and fend off any bonus points, it will be a moral victory. 

If he wants to add to his 4-0 record on the season and put his name in the ring as a possible AA, he can try to keep it close or pull out an upset. Mauller moved up to 157 from 149 this year, and Joe is pretty solid, so the ILLINI shouldn't be out-muscled. 

AI generated in Japanese Manga style. WTF is going on here?

165.  #90 LUKE ODOM versus #1 Keegan O'Toole. The ILLINI might start #116 Caden Ernd or #151 Chris Moore here, as they've all started duals for the ILLINI this season. But will they wrestle all three of them at once against O'Toole? I'd love to see that. With Danny Braunagel opting for an Olympic redshirt, then earning his spot in the Olympic Trials this past weekend at Senior Nationals, we won't see the best possible matchup here. 

The young ILLINI are promising, though, and will have great futures, but Wrestlestat.com is predicting a fall for O'Toole. He's very good and sneaky with that cradle, so that seems like a pretty likely result. Anything less would be a win for the ILLINI.

174.  #16 EDMOND RUTH versus #13 Peyton Mocco. Like Mauller, this is the fifth year Mocco has started for the Tigers. He was an AA last year, finishing in 8th place, and he made the Round of 12 and Round of 16 in prior seasons. 

Edmond has the 7-5 head-to-head win in last year's Tiger Style Invite. We've produced videos of that match because it was so interesting.

Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the ILLINI here. Mocco had best be in superior cardio shape to beat Ruth, who is 5-0 on the season. The Missouri kid is 6-1 with a loss to #28 Adam Kemp of Cal Poly. We're going with Ruth here. 

184.  #DYLAN CONNELL versus #21 Clayton Whiting. This would be a great match except for one thing: Connell didn't wrestle against Pitt because his foot was in a boot. Even if it has made its way out of the boot, has he had enough time to train cardio? 

Whiting won two matchups against Connell last season, but they were very close (5-4 and 2-1). With the ILLINI adding upper body strength during the off season, this was to be a great match. If he cannot go, Caden Ernd can bump up again. Whiting was the Wrestlestat.com favorite even without the boot on Connell's foot. A bumped-up 165lber will have a tough time against the Tiger. 

197.  #111 ISIAH PETTIGREW versus #5 Rocky Elam. Mystery surrounds this match as well. Elam did not wrestle against Air Force on Sunday. Will he be available in three days? Pettigrew has one of the best gas tanks at the weight. This might be the wrong time to bring Elam back. 

On the other hand, a poster at intermatforums.com indicates that "that's the plan." 

This is the Tiger's fourth season starting, and he's been an AA all three years before. His last match, though, was ten days ago, and besides the Cougar Clash and one dual, he's missed the rest of the Mizzou season. If ready, he'll be a heavy favorite. This'll be a huge step up in competition for Pettigrew, although he has looked pretty good against very good (but not great) competition this season. 

285.  #16 LUKE LUFFMAN versus #6 Zach Elam. Along with the Ruth/Mocco match, this'll be your second marquee event. Luuuke had a great start to the season, and was on the verge of beating a second top ten heavy when he let it slip away against Pitt. 

Elam was an AA last year and Round of 12 (x2) and Round of 16 before that. He's 12-0 on the season, but his best Wrestlestat.com win has been a 2-1 nail-biter against Josh Heindselman of Oklahoma. Their only head-to-head match ended in a fall for the Tiger way back in 2019.

Ben Askren attacks my wife while I yell words of encouragement to her before hiding in the camper. (Long story). 

CONCLUSION

Wrestlestat.com is calling for a 29-6 win for the stupid Tigers. That engine has been right about one ILLINI beat down and wrong about another. Without Lucas Byrd and the Brawlnagels, this match sure looks out of reach. Still, there should be some great wrestling with a few marquee matchups and a couple of others that'll likely come down to the last seconds. 

At Intermat, Edmond Ruth has the #3 ranking, while his opponent, Peyton Mocco is #6. Zach Elam is #6, while Luuuke Luffman comes in at #15. (The guy that Elam beat by one point, Heindselman, is at #16). 

Danny Pucino is way up to #20, followed by his foe, Josh Edmond at #21. Tony Madrigal is ranked higher than his Tiger opponent, but can he go? Cardani has beaten All Americans before, but can he put it together against #12 Intermat-ranked Noah Surtin? There remains a lot of variables regarding lineups, but we can say this for certain: Missouri, as awful and stupid as they may be, are heavily favored to win and win big. 

To achieve a massive upset, the ILLINI will need Ruth and Madrigal to win as slight to middling favorites. They'll also need Pucino and Harrier to win as tossups. Webster would help out here. Finally, two of Luffman, Cardani, Roberts or Pettigrew will need to have pretty big upsets. Mizzou sending out a poor-cardio Elam at 197 or one of their 184lbers* would make the task a little easier.

_____________________

*All of their 184lbers look like 197lbers to me, though.