Preview of ILLINI Dual with Pitt (and the new WtG cards)
WRESTLE: THE GATHERING
You are probably aware of a table game for nerds called Magic: The Gathering. Well, there is a similar game for cool people called Wrestle: The Gathering. You bring your own deck of cards to the match, then you play them on the table to defeat your opponent's cards. We own the OG ILLINI deck, which is undefeated. But enough silliness, let's get on with the Preview!
WHERE: Fitzgerald Fieldhouse, Allequippa St & Darragh St Pittsburgh, PA
WHEN: Sunday, December 3 at 5pm (Central)
WHY: Sweet, Sweet Revenge
ALL-TIME RECORD: 0-2
TV/STREAMING: ESPN watch (ACCNX)
LAST YEAR'S HOME DUAL WITH PITT
This was very easily the worst showing of the ILLINI last season. It was a disaster. The only aspect in mitigation was that the ILLINI beat UTC 32-9 that same day. It was also weird because ILLINOIS crushed the Mocs and then, right after that, looked bloody awful against the Panthers.
Danny Braunagel and Edmond Ruth were double winners on the day, and those two were the only ILLINI victorious against Pittsburgh. Danny Pucino looked good getting a takedown against then-#1 Cole Matthews. National Champion Nino Bonaccorsi has since graduated, and Dylan Connell would, later in the season, close the gap against Reece Heller. Here's the box score from that day:
#19 Illinois vs. #17 Pittsburgh Results 6-30
125: Colton Camacho defeated Maximo Renteria (Fall 5:15)
133: Micky Phillippi defeated Lucas Byrd (Dec. 4-3)
141: Cole Matthews defeated Danny Pucino (Dec. 4-2)
149: Tyler Badgett defeated Kevon Davenport (Dec. 4-2)
157: Dazjon Casto defeated Luke Odom (Fall 4:58)
165: Danny Braunagel defeated Holden Heller (SV-1 9-7)
174: Edmond Ruth defeated Luca Augustine (SV-1 3-1)
184: Reece Heller defeated Dylan Connell (Dec. 8-1)
197: Nino Bonaccorsi defeated Zac Braunagel (SV-1 3-1)
HWT: Jake Slinger defeated Matt Wroblewski (Dec. 2-0)
A RECENT COMMON OPPONENT
Both of the teams have wrestled and lost to Navy. Below is the box score of the Pitt versus Navy dual along with italicized additions showing how the ILLINI did against that particular Navy wrestler:
Navy 21, No. 16 Pitt 12
125: Evan Tallmadge (Navy) dec. Colton Camacho (Pitt), 8-3; Cardani beat Tallmadge 6-3 in SV
133: No. 17 Brendan Ferretti (Navy) dec. No. 10 Vinnie Santaniello (Pitt), 3-2; Ferretti pinned Brower
141: No. 23 Josh Koderhandt (Navy) dec. No. 7 Cole Matthews (Pitt), 5-3; Pucino lost 2-8
149: No. 24 Finn Solomon (Pitt) dec. Nicholas Vafiadis (Navy), 4-1 SV; Webster techfall James Latona
157: Jonathan Ley (Navy) dec. Jared Keslar (Pitt), 4-1 SV; Roberts beat Ley 4-2
165: No. 11 Holden Heller (Pitt) dec. Charlie Evans (Navy), 10-4; Cerniglia techfall Odom
174: No. 22 Luca Augustine (Pitt) dec. No. 30 Danny Wask (Navy), 9-7; Ruth won 8-5 in SV
184: No. 18 David Key (Navy) pins No. 13 Reece Heller (Pitt), 2:47; Same result but Connell lasted another :40
197: No. 16 Mac Stout (Pitt) dec. Cael Crebs (Navy), 4-1; Pettigrew lost 13-14
285: No. 13 Grady Griess (Navy) dec. No. 9 Dayton Pitzer (Pitt), 4-2; Luuuke won by major
WHY WE HATE PITT
The University of Pittsburgh started out in a log cabin. That's right, they were too lazy to plane the logs into wood panels. And you just know they filled up the cracks with mud and cow dung. It wasn't until 20 years later that they built a single brick three-room building.
Additionally, the UofI is ranked higher than Pitt by every ranking service. For example, according to Forbes, ILLINOIS is ranked #30, but Pitt comes in at #152. So, it is just and reasonable for the O&B to look down their noses at them. LOL, even stupid Indiana (#90) is ranked way better than Pitt. Plus, the folks there don't use soap.
THE DUAL
Pitt will have the home crowd advantage, and they have the result from last season to lean on. A number of their wrestlers return. With a dual on Sunday, we're always leery of the home mat advantage because you know some of those Pitt wrestlers will be out carousing the night before. And Coach Poeta will have his team in bed by 11 pm, and he'll read them a story, probably the one about the Goat and the Duck.
Our friends at Wrestlestat.com are predicting a gloomy day for ILLINI fans, bruiting a 26-6 win for the bad guys. They only see regular decision wins from Edmond Ruth and Joe Roberts. Everybody else loses, while the ILLINI at 149 and heavyweight lose by major decision.
That ain't gonna happen.
For one thing, the algorithm still has Jake Harrier as the starter at 149. Also, the heavyweight match should slightly favor the ILLINI over the Pitt wonderboy.
Moreover, on paper, Cardani should pick up a victory at 125. Madrigal looks like a winner at 133. That would give the ILLINI five wins; bonus points or criteria determining the winner.
The ILLINI are 3-1 on the year with wins over SIUE (28-7), CMU (32-3) and UNC (20-13). The loss was to common opponent Navy (18-23). Pitt is 4-1 with wins over VMI (47-0), Morgan State (54-0), Lehigh (21-12) and stupid Maryland (21-16). Their loss was also to Navy (12-21). Let's look at the individual matchups.
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
125. #65 JUSTIN CARDANI versus #59 COLTON CAMACHO. This is a match that Maximo Renteria should've won last year but gave up the pinfall. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a 6-3 win for the Panther although it is Cardani who holds the 7-1 versus 2-4 edge in wins over common opponents.
Most recently, they both beat the kid from SIUE, yet Camacho lost to the Navy 125, while Justin beat him in SV. Both are veterans now having wrestled over 75 matches each. This is the fourth year in the starting lineup for Cardani; the third for the Panther. If Justin really gets after it, if he really looks to win, he will win.
133. #49 ANTHONY MADRIGAL versus #24 VINCE SANTANIELLO. Over to the Intermat rankings you'll find Santaniello at #17, while Madrigal clocks in at #24. We think that Madrigal is underrated by Intermat and vastly underrated by Wrestlestat.com.
Moreover, we think that Santaniello is just the opposite.
He got one big win against a 6-3 Nic Bouzakis of Ohio State earlier this year, but currently has a 5-4 record on the season. Two of those losses were to exceptional wrestlers, but another was a 6-3 loss to Maryland's #31 Braxton Brown who just moved up to 133 from 125. The Panther also lost to high schooler Bo Bassett by three points at the Clarion Open. He barely wrestled last year because of injury.
Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the bad guys, but we see this as an ILLINI win with Madrigal's experience taking over. If Tony can't go for any reason, there's always Kole Brower ready to lace-em up!
141. #46 DANNY PUCINO versus #17 COLE MATTHEWS. This was a 4-2 match last season in Matthews' favor. He's the one in his fifth year in the Pitt starting lineup, four NCAA bids and a 5th-place finish in 2022.
Matthews is only 3-2 on the year so far, which explains why he has a #17 ranking from Wrestlestat.com. Moreover, he's coming off a major decision loss to Maryland's Kal Miller. The Terp is a very strong wrestler, but that's kind of a shock result for a wrestler who only needs 11 more wins to reach 100 in his college career.
Wrestlestat.com has this as a 7-3 win for the Panther, who also has a much better record against common opponents (16-7 vs. 4-10) than his ILLINI foe. Intermat.com has Matthews ranked #14, while Danny comes in at #27. We nevertheless can hope that Matthews is PUCINO'D!
149. #43 KANNON WEBSTER versus #24 FINN SOLOMON. We know that Kannon Webster is criminally underrated with the #43 rating from Wrestlestat.com because he's a true Freshman who recently made his debut. What is unexplained is Finn Solomon's #24 ranking when the best two wins in his two years in college have come against the #33 and the #47 wrestlers, and both of those in overtime.
Solomon has a nice high school pedigree with a Pennsylvania state championship and three finals, and he did spend last year at NC State. The Panther is currently ranked #23 by Flo with Kannon at #24. At Intermat.com, Solomon's got another #23 ranking, while that service hasn't realized yet that Webster has removed his redshirt.
As noted above, Wrestlestat.com has Jake Harrier in their projection, giving Pitt a major decision win according to their matrix. When you enter Webster instead, it is supposedly going to be a 10-4 win for Solomon. On the contrary, unless the Pitt kid is ready to go hard for seven minutes straight, this could be a bonus point for the ILLINI.
That's maybe asking too much, but you always ask too much of somebody so talented.
157. #47 JOE ROBERTS versus #81 JARED KESLAR. As noted above, this is one of the two matches that Wrestlestat.com predicts for the ILLINI, and it is supposed to be a close one-point win. Joe has started strong this year at 3-0 with a win over #15 Johnny Lovett and Navy's #48 Jonathan Ley.
Keslar lost to Ley. He's got a 6-4 record and was 11-4 last season as a redshirt. The Panther is a WPIAL champ, so he's got skills.
The ILLINI will need this win to come out on top in this dual. As a final note, Joe Roberts has broken into the FloWrestling rankings at #27.
165. #82 LUKE ODOM, #107 CADEN ERND or #138 at 174 CHRIS MOORE versus #9 HOLDEN HELLER. This will be a tough out for the ILLINI, as the Marian Catholic wrestler is a true veteran with this being his sixth year on a college campus and fifth year starting. That includes three years at Hofstra, and the last two years at Pitt.
Heller is a two-time NCAA qualifier, including a Round of 16 in 2023, even though he had a 16-8 record. The Panther has started the season 5-0. None of his wins this year have been particularly close, although the highest-rated wrestler he's faced is #40 on Wrestlestat.com.
That same service is predicting a regular decision for Pitt here. Both Intermat and FloWrestling have Heller as their #9 wrestler at the weight. A win by any of the ILLINI would be a huge upset.
174. #10 EDMOND RUTH versus #24 LUCA AUGUSTINE. This is the second of two matches where Wrestlestat.com favors the ILLINI grappler. Augustine is a tough, sticky wrestler who has kept it close with Edmond in two losses. The first was in SV at last year's dual, while the second came later by two points at the Midlands.
Augustine was a national qualifier in 2023, despite a 14-11 record against D1. Like Ruth, the Panther had a close win over Danny Wask of Navy. Unlike Ruth, Augustine lost to Wask last year when the latter was at Navy prep school. Except for blowout losses to Mekhi Lewis and Logan Massa, the Pitt kid has kept it close against very good wrestlers.
This is another match that the ILLINI will need to win the dual. Edmond will want this one to keep his record clean this season, and to keep his sweet #4 Intermat and #5 FloWrestling rankings. Augustine is #21 and #20 respectively.
184. #40 DYLAN CONNELL versus #18 REECE HELLER. The second of the Marian Catholic boys from Pittsburgh is also a favorite in this match against a fellow former Hurricane, as he has the better rating and two head-to-head wins against the much younger ILLINI.
The two heads-up wins are bad news, for sure, but Dylan did make a lot of progress against Heller. The first loss was 1-8 at the dual, then later in the year, it was a two-point loss in SV. So, even given the disparity in rankings, #14 versus #27 at FloWrestling, and #15 versus #26 at Intermat, this is very close to a toss-up. Connell worked on his body over the Summer, and that could be the difference.
Wrestlestat.com has it as a one-point win for the Panther.
197. #105 ISIAH PETTIGREW versus #17 MAC STOUT. Stout is like another Pettigrew, just a little shorter and stockier. He likes the blast double, he's quick, and he uses the collar and the 2-on-1 as favored ties. He also slaps the lefty underhook in while pulling his opponent into a knee or ankle pick or trip position.
Stout spent last season as an 8-4 redshirt. He got six matches in at Midlands, only losing to Braxton Amos 1-2 and Andrew Davison 1-4, two very good wrestlers.
This year, he's 8-2.
His only losses have been to the #4 and #9 wrestlers. He beat the Navy Midshipman, Cael Crebs, by the score of 4-1. That's the fellow Isiah lost to 13-14 because Crebs stepped on his foot in the first period and caused the ILLINI to fight off his back for much of the first period.
Stout is ranked #10 by FloWrestling and #11 by Intermat. Yet, as long as Pettigrew is mindful of the blast double, the underhook knee/ankle pick and the 2-on-1, we could see this determined by a clash of foreheads in SV as they both shoot in on a double-leg. Yes, it would be a big upset, but it could happen, and this would be a nice win to have come tourney time.
285. #15 LUKE LUFFMAN versus #10 DAYTON PITZER. Although favored by Wrestlestat.com to win an inexplicable 13-2 major decision over Luffman, Pitzer's kryptonite appears to be heavyweights just like Luuuke. He is susceptible to the big and quick guys. For example, he finished last season with losses to Owen Trephan of NC State and Sam Schuyler of Iowa State.
Pitzer is a skinny fellow. Not super skinny, probably about 220 or so, but Luuuke will have 30 to 40 pounds on him. The Panther loves to hit a switch the first thing off the whistle or after giving up a takedown. Luke will need to look for that. It is very quick and usually works. Given enough time on top, he will figure-four the top of his opponent's thigh, so the ILLINI will need to be quick off the bottom at the whistle.
The Pitt kid is susceptible to a knee pull, and I expect Luke will be looking for them. He was mat.com famous last season for early upsets over Cohlton Schultz and a last-second pin of Trent Hilger (Mr. Badger wasn't waiting for that switch like he should have been), but he's gone away from leg attacks because he's started to feel the weight of college heavyweights.
Front headlocks are especially worthwhile against him.
More tethered to reality is FloWrestling, which has Luuuke at #9 and Pitzer at #11. At Intermat.com, it is the ILLINI at #8 with the Panther trailing in the #11 position. It is quite conceivable for this dual to come down to this match. Will Luffman save the ILLINI bacon once again?
CONCLUSION
This looks like it could be a 5-5 match or a 6-4 with bonus making up the difference. We might come down to heavyweight here. The ILLINI are currently riding high with a 3-1 record, coming off of two dual wins that included a paper upset of UNC. (Wrestlestat.com had the Tarheels beating the ILLINI as badly as they now have Pitt beating them).
The kids in O&B really need a good showing here, as they have nothing on the schedule from this dual on December 3 until a meeting with Mizzou on December 21. This is a great opportunity to get some revenge for the beating the ILLINI took last year. We think they get their revenge.
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