Preview of the ILLINI versus SIUE

This will be special for the two teams. They will wrestle on a stage with the light show that you can only get at State Farm Center. On top of all that, proceeds benefit the IKWF. Here is what Coach Poeta had to say about that:

"The IKWF holds a special place in my heart. While in elementary school, I idolized the IKWF state champions, dreaming of one day being part of the grand march and competing on the stage for the state finals," said Mike Poeta, Illinois wrestling head coach. "Im confident there's no other wrestling organization in the country as prestigious and well-organized as the IKWF. Its influence has undeniably contributed to Illinois' success at the NCAA level. Knowing that this dual meet can support the IKWF fills me with pride. It has given me so much, and this is our way of giving back."

This is what the University of ILLINOIS can do with a raised-stage configuration at State Farm Center:

That will be quite an experience for the fans and for the wrestlers. And the good news doesn't stop there. This match, as well as the dual against Navy on 11/4 and the triangular with CMU and UNC on 11/19 will be televised by the streaming service Big Ten Plus. 

WHAT:  ILLINI dual SIUE

WHERE:  State Farm Center on the Stage

WHEN:  Thursday, November 2 at 6:00 pm (Central)

TV/STREAMING:  BTN+ (subscription service)

BONUS:  Free clinic before match (see below)

A free wrestling clinic before the match at State Farm Center from one of the best. 

OVERVIEW

This is a difficult dual to handicap for a number of reasons. First and foremost, it is the first dual of the year, and nobody but the coaches can be certain who starts at every weight. Secondly, the ILLINI have injuries to heal, and at least one starter will be in Santiago, Chile getting ready for his Pan Am Games matches on November 4th. 

Additionally, Andre at Wrestlestat.com's lineups and the winners of the SIUE and ILLINI wrestle-offs don't quite match up. Let me be clear, though, the ILLINI are a huge favorite to win, but it will likely be closer without Byrd and perhaps both Braunagels. 

Finally, there is the question of the five free matches given to true Freshmen redshirts during dual season. Will this factor come into play for either coach? 

WRESTLE-OFFS

The results of SIUE's wrestle-offs were as follows:

125- Davian Guanajuato over Gavin Alexander 4-2
133 - Marcel Lopez over Eric Almarinez 9-6
141 - Danny Martinez over Alec Peralta
149 - #15 Caleb Tyus Tech fall 19-4 over Braxton Strick
157 - Brock Woodcock 14-4 major over Caine Tyus
165 - Justin Ruffin 1-0 over Bradley Gillum
174 - Dom Lopez (?) over Antonio Torres
184 - Derron Pulliam 12-3 major over Aaron Cramer
197 - Nick Nosler 5-4 over Ryan Yarnell

Nick Nosler is a true freshman, and given his wrestle-off result, and given that this dual's in his back yard, will he get the call? He beat a quality wrestler in Yarnell. Wrestlestat.com has Ruffin wrestling in the ILLINI dual at 157, but he just won a wrestle-off at 165. Gillum and Ruffin are two of the highest-ranked Cougars, and it would be a shame one of them had to sit the bench. As for the ILLINI: 

125 - Justin Cardani won against Caelan Riley

133 - Tony Madrigal over Kole Brower

141 - Danny Pucino was a winner

149 - Kannon Webster beat Jake Harrier

157 - Braeden Scoles beat Joe Roberts

165 - Luke Odom in a tight one over Caden Ernd or Chris Moore

174 / 184 - Edmond Ruth wrestled an exhibition against Dylan Connell which Connell won

197 - Isiah Pettigrew was a winner

285 - Luke Luffman beat Daniel Renshaw

The absences of the Brawlnagel twins and Luke Byrd are very noticeable. Last seen, Byrd is the Wyrd still had a large wrap on his hand. Zac just flew to Chile for Pan Ams, and the question is whether his brother joined him as a practice partner. None of those three have certified at a weight for this season.

ONCE UPON A TIME

The ILLINI are 8-0 in this century against the Cougars with an average team score of 41 points. The tightest margin of victory was 30-10. With three veteran NCAA qualifiers possibly out of the lineup, that record could be broken. 

But let's go back to January 21, 2011. 

It is a dark day for the economy as four banks worth 2.7 billion dollars close and Bank of America reports a loss of 1.2 billion. It is an equally crappy day at the box office with No Strings Attached, The Green Hornet and The Dilemma boring audiences across the nation. 

It was, however, all sunshine and slim fit jeans at Huff Hall, as the ILLINI trounced SIUE 50-0. Here was that box score:

#15 Illinois 50, Southern Illinois Edwardsville 0

125: Logan Arlis (ILL) pinned Kris Treat (SIUE), 2:08 (6-0)
133: #7 B.J. Futrell (ILL) tech. fall John Petrov (SIUE), 22-7 (6:54) (11-0)
141: Daryl Thomas (ILL) maj. dec. Nick Capozzoli (SIUE), 21-9 (15-0)
149: #14 Eric Terrazas (ILL) tech. fall Derrick Pousson (SIUE), 18-3 (6:42) (20-0)
157: Jackson Morse (ILL) maj. dec. Kyle Lowman (SIUE), 10-2 (24-0)
165: Conrad Polz (ILL) pinned Gabe Hocum (SIUE), 6:49 (30-0)
174: Ben Friedl (ILL) tech. fall Tyler Rice (SIUE), 21-6 (6:46) (34-0)
184: Tony Dallago (ILL) pinned Deshoun White (SIUE), 3:32 (40-0)
197: Joe Barczak (ILL) maj. dec. Robert Cooney (SIUE), 24-10 (44-0)
HWT: Pat Walker (ILL) win by forfeit (50-0)

WEIGHT-BY-WEIGHT PREVIEW

The Wrestlestat.com algorithm has picked the ILLINI to be victorious by a whopping 27-3 score. Unfortunately, we know that Zac Braunagel can't possibly wrestle, and that Lucas Byrd and Danny Braunagel are unlikely to go. That leaves us to fill in those variables. 

125.  Justin Cardani versus Davian Guanajuato. This match will be the thrilling return of Justin Cardani to the lineup. He's beaten a number of All Americans in his career and is, hopefully, ready to take that next step as a wrestler and a leader. 

He has had a full year to build up from his shoulder injury, so you have to hope he will be able to pull in some of the legs that he so easily grabs and then converts them into takedowns. 

The Cougar has a 7-14 record against D1 opponents, and his best win was against a fellow rated #138. Still, the wrestlestat engine only gives Cardani a 6-4 win. I expect that Justin has improved, and that this score could be a major. Guanajuato is rated #95 at the weight, while Cardani starts the season at #52. 

133.  Anthony Madrigal versus Marcel Lopez. The Cougar had a stunning high school career, winning four Iowa state championships and finishing with a 217-4 record. As a freshman last year, though, there were bumps in the road. He finished 7-7 against D1 opponents. 

Lopez did wrestle in five duals and won three of those matches. He also had chances to beat the numbers 45, 74 and 85 wrestlers last year but lost each time by one point or in SV. His best win so far is against the #108 wrestler. 

Madrigal is a three-time NCAA qualifier. He did not wrestle last year, and the year before that, Tony had the unfortunate luck to have to face Chris Cannon and Lucas Byrd at the Big Dance, losing 1-3 to both. He did start out that season with a 7-0 win streak that included victories over Dylan Ragusin, Lucas Byrd and Rayvon Foley. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point win for the ILLINI, and since Madrigal usually has low-scoring matches, that could be right. 

141.  Danny Pucino versus Eric Almarinez. Will this matchup even happen? Almarinez lost the 133 spot in a wrestle-off. On the other hand, everybody else on the Cougar roster around this weight is a true Freshman. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 12-4 major decision for the good guys. I don't see why not. Pucino is #41 at the weight according to that engine, while Almarinez is #138. 

149.  Jake Harrier versus Caleb Tyus. This is the match that wrestlestat believes will swing to the Cougars. In fact, the predicted score is 8-3 in favor of Tyus, who is at #26 on the charts, while Jake is unfairly at #125. 

The Cougar was 23-9 against Division One wrestlers last season and won a match at the NCAA tournament. His two losses at the Big Dance were each by three points to eventual All Americans. 

Harrier's ranking is likely lowered because he started last year at 141 and moved up to 149 for the team. He has had a year to put on extra muscle, which could make this a really tight match. Moreover, Jake wrestled with a lot of fire at the end of the season. We could also see true Freshman Kannon Webster here, although the staff may save him for B1G duals. 

157.  Joe Roberts versus Caine Tyus. On paper, this should be a relatively easy win for the #108 ILLINI over the Cougar ranked #140. Tyus went 4-15 last year starting for SIUE in duals and at the MAC tournament. 

On the other hand, this could turn into a battle of the redshirts, as both Tyus and Roberts lost convincingly to true freshmen in wrestle-offs. It is doubtful that the coaches will want to wrestle the ILLINI's Braeden Scoles (Wisconsin 4-timer) and SIUE's Brock Woodcock (Missouri 2-timer) in this nonconference dual, but it is possible we see one or both of them. 

Are they allowing "extra matches" this year? If so, the battle of the redshirts would be a show-stopper. 

165.  Luke Odom versus Justin Ruffin. A battle between #12 Danny Braunagel and the #21 Ruffin looked like the best matchup on the card, but the Braunagels did not certify at a weight, and we know that Zac is in Chile. Olympic redshirts for both of them? Wrestlestat posits a two-point win for little Brawny. 

Against Luke Odom, the needle swiftly points to the other side, suggesting a 7-point win for the Cougar. It always looked like Luke was cutting too much weight at 157, so he should be a lot more comfortable here. He also has experience starting, so we can still get a good match. 

174.  Edmond Ruth versus Bradley Gillum. At the SIUE wrestle-offs, Gillum lost a one-point match to the tough Ruffin at 165. Looks like he has to move up. The Cougar wrestled at 165 last year, and will have to face one of the best in Edmond Ruth in his first dual at 174. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a two-point win for Ruth, but it could be more, even though Gillum is the definition of a goer. Ruth will need to cut an already-hard body down to 174. Gillum will have needed to pack on about 10 pounds of muscle in a couple of weeks. 

184.  Dylan Connell versus Deron Pulliam. The Cougar is a transfer from Indian Hills Community College. He did wrestle for SIUE last year and finished 5-2 against D1 grapplers. He was 16-2 overall, as he won three minor tournaments (Greyhound Open, etc.). 

Connell is listed as #22 and was an NCAA qualifier last season. Pulliam is up at #77, but he is a bit of an unknown. The ILLINI is 2-0 against the same competition that gave Pulliam an 0-2 record. 

197.  Isiah Pettigrew versus Ryan Yarnell. This would be a major decision for Zac Braunagel, but he's in Chile representing the United States in the Pan Am Games. His replacement is likely to be Isiah Pettigrew or Joey Braunagel or Chase Waggoner. 

If #102 Pettigrew is thrown into the matrix, the machine gives #65 Yarnell a major decision. Joe Joe is actually at #66, and wrestlestat gives him the three-point win over his SIUE opponent. Go figure!

285.  Luke Luffman versus Bryson Buhyk. We're not sure why wrestlestat has the #239 Buhyk listed as the starter when the latest #97 McKiernan (there's more of them?) is on the roster. Unless Dan McKiernan is hurt, wouldn't you start him instead?

Buhyk is 0-5 versus D1, while McKiernan is 3-9. In either case, the algorithm gives LUUUUKE a big win just short of a major. With the big fella just coming back from a redshirt and after an incredible Summer in open tournaments, I bet we see a major. 

A WORD ABOUT TREASON

We selected the 2011 ILLINI/SIUE dual on purpose. It evidences the treason of one Daryl Thomas. For the ILLINI, back in the day, he happily majored Cougars. He took a forfeit from them another year. Orange and Blue, through and through. Now, he is a turncoat and an assistant coach at SIUE, and they couldn't have gotten a better one. The Cougars are on the bounce!