Kamal Bey and Joe Rau's Moneyball Analysis
OVERVIEW
We're not sure Kamal Bey and Joe Rau are still with the ILLINI RTC. We think so, but we do know they are at least IRTC-adjacent. Like Zane, the Wraustler receives additional assistance from Titan Mercury, and like Max Nowry, Kamal has the Army (WCAP). We also know that we love'em. These young fellows are the excitement!
As noted in the Brawlnagel preview, we are not Greco experts. These Moneyball posts are presented for the fan who wants to know what to expect from the opponents of Bey and Rau. The fact of the matter is that Kamal and Joe live Greco wrestling 24/7 besides an occasional salute, parade rest and improvisational comedy. They know what they're doing and have excellent coaching, including being able to lean on Coach Medlin for some wisdom.
KAMAL BEY
Kamal has been a mainstay for the US Greco team, winning a Junior World Gold in 2017. That same year he won a Silver in the Senior US Open followed by Golds the next two years. Bey won a US National Championship and a Silver at the Pan Am Championships. He's no stranger to Final X as well. Kamal won in two against Britton Holmes in 2022, and he won in three against Pat Smith in 2019.
Aliaksandr Kikiniou is the opponent for Kamal Bey in Final X. He is an oldje at 43-years young. Kikiniou wrestled for Belarus before becoming an American citizen. While wrestling for that country, he won a World Championship in 2009 and a Bronze in 2007, as well as each color of medal at the European Championships in 2009, 2010 and 2003.
Aliaksandr won his first medal at a European Championship five years after Kamal Bey was born. In 2012, he lost the Bronze Medal match at the London Olympics.
This video shows almost the entire (spectacular) US Open match between Kamal Bey and Aliaksandr Kikiniou. It didn't last long. Additionally, there are Greco highlights for Joe Rau and Zac Braunagel.
PRIOR MEETING
Bey and Kikiniou wrestled at the US Open in April with Bey coming away with a very quick 9-0 tech fall. This can been seen in the video above. It was Bey who went quickly for a body lock around the waist and drove Aliaksandr to the ground. Then, after first attempting to secure a fall, Bey lifted him up for a five-point throw.
TWO DIMENSIONS
Aliaksandr Kikiniou is a two-dimensional Greco wrestler. He has become an absolute expert in those two areas and will resort to them at all times. He has a powerful and frequently successful low gut wrench, and he uses a tricep lock to set up arm throws. This is what that hold looks like:
He'll reach over the top to his opponent's right shoulder and tricep as soon as he can after the whistle. He'll hand-fight until he can get the lock you see in the image above, then try an arm throw. The hold is also very effective from a defensive standpoint.
The good news is that Kamal Bey must have scouted him carefully because he did an absolutly incredible job of stopping that hold. Other Americans have been stymied by it. Not Kamal.
THE DATA
Here is our actual Moneyball look at Aliaksandr Kikiniou. We will look at what ties, holds, takedowns, and turns he favors. The matches analyzed involved the former Belarussian versus Payton Jacobson (x2), Alan Vera, Chandler Rogers, RaVaughn Perkins (x2) and Arsen Julfalakyan of Armenia (from ten years ago to see if his style had changed. Nope).
It is all about the tricep with this fellow. He did use an underhook and collar tie to stall late in matches.
He's an arm thrower. That's what he does. He benefits from the number of slips that refs give specifically for this kind of throw. Kikiniou was only successful on four of ten arm throw attempts.
Kikiniou was successful on 9 of 10 low gut wrenches. He failed once because he was too close to the out-of-bounds line.
CONCLUSION
Kamal Bey will want to repeat what he did at the US Open: Fight off the tricep lock masterfully and send this fellow onto his head. You don't want to be placed down against him.
In another match between Kikiniou and Alan Vera that we watched earlier (and didn't score for the purposes of this project), the 43-year old would leap forward on his toes when he was in the down position in par terre. That might be a recipe for a five-point move if he tries that on Kamal.
JOE "THE WRAUSTLER" RAU
In 2014 and 2019, Joe was The Man for Team USA. He also won Gold in the 2020 Pan Am Championships and thus secured a spot in the Olympics for America. Rau won the Olympic Team Trials qualifier in 2016, as well as a US Open that year and another in 2019.
Joe Rau beat Ben Provisor in two at the 2019 Final X.
His opponent at this year's Final X will be Christian Dulaney, who wrestled in college at SIU-E, and before that, the University of Northern Iowa. According to the Minnesota Storm's website, "Dulaney placed fourth in the 2018 USA Wrestling U23 Wrestling Championships, and qualified for the Olympic Trials for the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo. More recently, Dulaney placed third at the Bill Farrell, New York, Memorial International Tournament and was a 2022 National Team member."
PRIOR MEETING
At the 2020 Senior Nationals, Dulaney lost to Joe Rau by tech fall 0-10 in the Semifinals. Although he's been around the Greco scene for some time, that appears to be his only meeting with the Wraustler. In the match, Rau used a 2-on-1 to push him out of the circle for a Caution and Two. A few seconds later, Joe did the same thing. A minute later, it happened again.
Now with a 6-0 lead, Joe Rau used a four-point throw right before the first period ended to secure the tech. This was at 87 kilos, so they've both moved up a weight class.
THE DATA
Here is our actual Moneyball look at Christian Dulaney. We will look at what ties, holds, takedowns, and turns he favors. The matches analyzed involved Dulaney versus Joe Rau, Tim Young, George Sykes, Sione Halo, Alan Vera and Andrew Berreyesa.
Most of the time, Dulaney is satisfied with just hand-fighting while waiting for his opponent to make a mistake.
Most of the takedown attempts weren't really "Takedown Attempts" but an effort to put his opponent off balance. The "Failed Throws" in the chart on the right occurred when his opponent attempted a throw, but failed, and Dulaney covered.
The raw data showed six attempted turns and three successful ones. Not many turns here.
CONCLUSION
I'm expecting Joe Rau to do what he did in their last meeting, which was to stick to the 2-on-1 and go for a throw when he has the unmistakable advantage. Dulaney was behind George Sykes last year in a match, and Sykes was able to use a 2-on-1 to frustrate the young Minnesota Storm wrestler. Alan Vera used the same hold to push out Dulaney much the same way Joe Rau did.
Dulaney scored about a third of his points in the reviewed matches because his opponent failed a throw and Dulaney covered. Rau will just need to play it cool and use his ties and holds to frustrate his younger foe. Dulaney just wants to hand fight.
NOTE: Joe's corner might want to keep an eye on Dulaney's head. He doesn't keep it very straight.
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Moneyball is property of Columbia Pictures. The images inset into the Moneyball poster are from 5pointmove.com and Wikipedia. The large photograph of Bey is from USA Wrestling. The large photograph of Rau with his teammates and coach is from Twitter.
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