A Moneyball Look at Zane Richards' Opponent at Final X

THE MONEYBALL LOOK

In this post, we take a deep dive into the characteristics of Zane Richards' Final X opponent. This is our Moneyball look at Thomas Gilman. What stances and ties will he favor? What kind of shots does he take? What percentage does he convert? 

There are a couple of caveats about this project. Most importantly, we looked at only quality opponents. What Gilman does against a guy from Guatemala or Spain or Columbia isn't important for this analysis because he will wrestle differently against those popsicles. 

Instead, we reviewed and analyzed 10 matches against credible opponents to include Daton Fix (x2), current World Champion Zelimkhan Abakarov, Joe Colon, Vito Arujau, Udit Udit of India, Alireza Sarlak of Iran, Wanhou Zou of China, current World Bronze Zanabazar Zandanbud, and Horst Lehr of Germany. 

These matches span three years, but the NLWC wrestler's style really hasn't changed much in that time. He starts with a slap on the head to get his right-handed collar tie, uses his left to hand fight, tries to push out his opponent, and will attempt to hit sweep singles if necessary or available. 

WHAT THE REFS SHOULD WATCH CLOSELY

Gilman will try to roman knuckle wrestle with his left hand. Refs are supposed to be looking out for that, but in some matches, they ignored it even when the other wrestler complained. If he feels a tight gut or leg lace coming on, he will grab a hand or a foot. The ref caught him doing it in one match, but the call was white-paddled for some corrupt reason.  

I personally feel if an opponent has fallen right into the perfect leglace position or a gut wrench with momentum, then you have to do what you can to extend the match, even violate the rules by grabbing hands and feet. 

He will sometimes land his clubs on the side of his opponent's head, and that's a no no. 

Significantly, he sweats like a 300-pound long haul trucker on a 72-hour amphetamine binge, and this can be an issue in the second period. The problem is exacerbated because his towel guy wipes him down like a mother using a cotton swab in her baby's ear. He comes out for second periods much too sweaty half the time. 

I also suspect he uses Vaseline or some kind of slick or oily product on his body before matches. He's way too shiny. We used Vaseline on our faces in boxing, but there is not supposed to be any grabbing in boxing. 

Finally, on restarts, Gilman will anticipate the whistle on occasion and shoot at his opponent. He did it in three of the ten matches that were analyzed. Did he jump the gun? It was pretty close. Zane will need to be ready at all restarts and push him away if necessary, and the ref should pay attention to this potential problem. 

Statistically, he is likely to shoot immediately off the restart at least once in his three matches with Zane. 

THE GOOD NEWS

In his match in the World Championships, Gilman was beaten soundly by a guy with the same build and side-to-side movement as Zane. That was Albania's Zelimkhan Abakarov. A great scouting report for the upcoming matches can be had in this one video:

Look at that guy! He could be Zane's older, uglier brother! Another wrestler who has given Gilman fits is Daton Fix, who is also built along the same lines.

 

THE DATA

Here is a look at the ten matches with an eye towards stance, ties, attempted takedowns, successful takedowns, attempted turns, successful turns, and Gilman's opponent's attempted takedowns and turns and successful takedowns and turns. 

Gilman gains ground almost exclusively by pushing his left leg forward. Most of the time, he favors a square stance. 

As for ties, he loves, loves a right-handed collar tie. In fact, he will hand fight almost exclusively with his left hand as long as he has the right hand around the collar. 

That includes intertwining fingers. 

He will interlace fingers as much as the ref and his opponents allow. The chart ran out of space for Pummel Position (about 4%) and Double Underhooks (about 3%). 

The raw data for the attempted takedowns in the 10 matches against credible opponents is as follows: 11 attempted pushouts, 7 sweep singles to the right, 5 sweep singles to the left, 4 go-behinds (from a snap or grounded), 2 attempted singles, and one attempt at each of these -- duckunder, double, body lock and high crotch. Note that the graph above ran out of space for that one double. 

The most prolific of the attempts were sweep singles to the left or the right (34.3%). Most of those were to his right. The second most prolific attempts involved pushouts (28.9%). In ten matches, there was only one attempted double or body lock or high crotch. 

Gilman was successful both times he tried a single off the whistle. His opponent wasn't paying attention. The double that he attempted was also anticipating the whistle, but he failed and was squashed for it. 

Obviously from the numbers, the NLWC wrestler is most successful with his pushouts and his sweep singles. Those make up, by far, the majority of his attempts and successful takedowns. 

The raw data for turn attempts and successful turns is downright shocking. In the 10 matches surveyed, he attempted a total of 5 gut wrenches. He was successful once. He also tried a seatbelt position whip-over once and was successful. In those ten matches, he earned a total of 4 points for exposure. That's amazing!

In 7 of the 10 matches, Gilman didn't attempt a single turn. He will usually lay on the guy and rest. We almost didn't include Horst Lehr's numbers in this survey because, although the German is a fantastic athlete, he made some rookie mistakes, including not getting to his stomach after a takedown. That was Gilman's only successful gut wrench. 

Gilman is much more likely to give up push outs and singles than anything else. That is good news for Zane. Additionally, he is susceptible to exotic takedowns like Fireman's, headlocks or arm throws. Gilman only gave up one reversal because he rarely attempts to turn a good wrestler. Additionally, Richards is really good at go behinds, and Gilman gave up three of three go behind takedown attempts. 

As the data shows, Gilman doesn't give up exposure even against really good wrestlers, and very few attempts (5 total) have been made. It is important to point out that if he feels a lot of pressure, Gilman will grab hands and feet to block any exposure attempt. 

He risks the Caution and One to avoid the two. This is a smart move because of the difference between falling into a leglace or gut directly from a takedown versus having time to get your mind right and defenses set up when one is placed in par terre by the ref. 

Just a bit of fun trivia: The wrestler who made both of the bow and arrow exposure attempts was Udit Udit of India. Where did that come from?!

THE FLO PREVIEW

FloWrestling has a preview of the Richards/Gilman match at this link. I have to take exception with a couple of points and the conclusion. First, the author wrote this: "Gilman’s tried and true game plan of using underhooks, forward pressure, and single legs to score step-outs and takedowns, has proven highly successful." 

Not true. The data shows that Gilman infrequently uses an underhook against a quality opponent. He is much more likely to use a collar tie with the right hand and hand fight with his left. 

Additionally, it was stated: "I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richards score a takedown or two each match and possibly even a turn, but in the end, I would be surprised to see Thomas Gilman dethroned." I disagree with the conclusion, of course, as I would not be surprised. 

On the other hand, if Zane turns Gilman, that will be the move of the decade. Gilman rarely gets turned, nor does he turn anybody of significance. It will likely be takedowns and push-outs that win this match. 

CONCLUSION

Zane Richards has a great chance here for a lot of reasons. The reasons range from body type to wrestling style to cutting weight to silly mistakes. Check these out:

1.  The Lion of Carbondale has had recent success against top echelon wrestlers, and, more importantly, against wrestlers with a similar tall, lanky body type as Thomas Gilman. These wrestlers include Nick Suriano, Jakob Camacho, the Mongolian World Bronze Medalist Zanabazar Zandanbud, and the Iranian at the World Cup.

2.  Gilman has also had great success against these tall and lanky wrestlers, Zandanbud, Joe Colon, Horst Lehr, Udit Udit from India, and Alireza Sarlak from Iran. He has a lot less success against wrestlers who have the same body type as Zane. These include Daton Fix and the current World Champion Zelimkhan Abakarov. 

3.  Besides the different body types, there are the styles of wrestlers. Fix and Abakarov were more likely to move side to side and look for angles. Gilman was successful at blunting any attempts at strength or leverage from the taller wrestlers. He was less successful against movement. An example of this is Daton Fix's go-behinds, which were accomplished because of his speed. 

4.  Gilman is susceptible to exotic moves that can blunt his attempts at pushing forward. Germany's Horst Lehr is a great example of this. The German hit a Fireman's and a headlock throw on Gilman. What? Yes! The best example, though, is the World Champ Abakarov, who hit an arm throw on the NLWC wrestler very early in the match. Gilman was reticent to push forward too hard after that. 

5.  The event starts at 2:00 pm (Eastern) on June 10, and according to the folks at the intermat.com forum, it will start with the lowest weights first and move in ascending order of weight. Each of the three disciplines (Women's, Men's Free and Greco) will be held at the same time. Doors open at noon, so I would expect weigh ins around that time. If so, Zane could have a cutting edge here. 

6.  Speaking of cutting, Gilman has been making 57 kg for a very long time. That has to wear on the body. On the other hand, Zane Richards spent a number of years up at 61 kg, which was still a cut for him, but not as deleterious to his body. 

7.  Thomas Gilman has a history of taking silly risks and sometimes doing the unthinkable. This history goes back to his NCAA days, but it hasn't abated during his freestyle career. Who remembers that time he shot on Daton Fix in Final X while winning in the last few seconds? Against Udit Udit last year, Gilman took a humorously bad shot that cost him two points. He barely squeaked out a 9-8 win after that. 

8.  Zane's corner is in it for him to win it. Zane is practicing with a Mongolian World Medalist, and Coach Medlin will be scouting for him. Does the NLWC, which has a lot of resources, have enough to give as much individual attention to Gilman? There are 7 other NLWC wrestlers who'll be lacing up for Final X. 

9.  Zane has nothing to lose. The pressure is not on him. Gilman is expected to win, and I don't think people realize how much of a "live dog" Zane is. He beat Suriano even though the kid blatantly grabbed his singlet twice. Richards has a lot of want-to in him. Would Gilman crumble under the pressure if Zane gets a lead? Past history suggests that that is possible. 

10. The ILLINI RTC wrestler has made great strides while learning from Russians and Azerbaijanis. Gilman looks like the same wrestler from four years ago. He has not added to his arsenal, that's for sure.

11. Over-confidence. Gilman had some great results against Zane four years ago. Will he work as hard as he could for this match? This is a training camp question. Suriano had great results against Zane four years ago as well. But this is a different Zane.