ILLINI NCAA DAY ONE

The ILLINI had a great day in Tulsa on Thursday. The men in Orange and Blue had three "upsets" at the NCAA wrestling tournament, although fans who've been following the ILLINI probably don't think of them as upsets. ILLINOIS was up to 6th place near the end of the first round and ended up in 7th at the end of that first session. Four of the five won their first matches, and four of the five remain in scoring roles. 

Two on the front side and two on the backside. 

On a day when the ILLINI basketball team couldn't make it to the Sweet 16--they didn't even make it to the Thuper 32--the wrestling team finished in 16th place after the second round. 

There were a lot of "HELL YEAH!" moments when a wrestler got that crucial takedown or rideout. We'll start out by looking at the two ILLINI who remain on the front side of their brackets: Lucas Byrd and Zac Braunagel. 

133.  LUCAS BYRD

That is Lucas Byrd's immediate future. He will have an early match with Daton Fix, and if he wins it, he's an AA, and he'd face the Arujau/Latona winner. Interestingly, Fix was able to double up the score on the #15 seed Kyle Biscoglia of Northern Iowa, while Byrd managed to double up the score on a much higher seeded #7 Michael Colaiocco of Penn. 

This is the perfect time to catch Fix, right after having to make weight. It hasn't seemed to hurt him in the three non-Covid years when he made it to the NCAA finals, finishing those rounds with two falls and a major. Yet, he's grown in those years, so the cut must be pretty tough. He's probably drinking less juice as well, if you know what I mean, and I know you know what I mean. And speaking of the cut, let's talk about Byrd is the Wyrd's first two wins. 

He opened with Brody Teske of Iowa and couldn't stop piling up the points until he stopped piling up the points. Was it the cut for Lucas? At least one of Byrd's twitter fans wondered if he'd been injured. That was certainly not the case in his next match against Penn's Colaiocco. The ILLINI put a national championship bull ride on that poor kid. 

We all knew that he'd get his revenge against the Quaker, so this wasn't an upset to fans of ILLINOIS, but it was a #10 win over a #7 on the bracket. 

As for forecasting, wrestlestat.com shows the ILLINI at 28-8 against common opponents, while the Cowboy is 26-1. The common loss is Micky Phillipi. Andre's algorithm predicts a two-point win for Fix, but Lucas Byrd has absolutely nothing to lose in the match against Daton Fix. He's supposed to lose! 

That's the Lucas Byrd I can't wait to see. 

197.  ZAC BRAUNAGEL

Here we can see that the Brawlnagel's immediate focus will be on Ethan Laird of Rider. Win that match, and Zac will be an All American. He'd also be given the opportunity for revenge against Bonaccorsi and Allred, two fellows he is also ready to beat. 

As for Laird, this is his fifth year starting for the Broncs. He has a Round of 16 and a Round of 12 (as a heavyweight) to his credit. Although he's the fourth seed with a gaudy 27-1 record, he's #8 at wrestlestat.com, and that algorithm predicts a one-point win for Thiccc Zac. 

Does the algorithm measure toughness? 

Laird is tall for the weight but has some muscle. Not as much as a Braxton Amos, but more defined than Matt Wroblewski. In fact, Brawlnagel's goes with WroboCop were about the best simulation for this type of wrestler. The Rider Bronc will shoot a single, and he likes a kind of semi-duck where he moves to the side of an opponent's lead leg. 

Ironically, for a wrestler from Rider, he's not much of a rider. He trusts his takedowns much more than his mat wrestling. 

The winner of the top half of the bracket will have to face either Rocky Elam, Jaxon Smith, Tanner Sloan or Bernie Truax arising from the bottom half. 

165.  DANNY BRAUNAGEL

As you can see above, Little Brawny has an absolutely brutal path set out for him. That's especially true since he still is hampered by the large wraps around his hand. His first backside match will be with Julian Ramirez of Cornell. The bad news is that Ramirez was the #4 seed in the weight. The good news is that he was sent to the wrestlebacks by Caleb Fish, a guy Danny Braunagel recently beat. 

Get past Ramirez, and Braunagel will need to beat the winner of Andrew Sparks and Patrick Kennedy. Win there, and he'd have one more match to earn AA honors. That match would be against a former national champion: Either David Carr or Shane Griffith. 

This weight is ridiculous. 

Although wrestlestat.com is calling for a 9-4 win for Big Red, the wrestlers have very similar records against the same guys (7-7 versus 6-8). About the only thing that separates them is that Brawny had early success against Cam Amine of Michigan, while Ramirez has had recent success against Quincy Monday of Princeton. Both with two wins apiece. 

It may depend on which Cornell wrestler shows up: Either the guy who got pinned by Peyton Hall, a guy that Danny beat yesterday, the guy who lost by major to Hamiti, a guy that Danny just lost to, or the guy who beat Quincy Monday in two close matches. 

As for yesterday, the ILLINI got a major decision win in the first round over a guy seeded above him, Peyton Hall. That was a great match, and that's the Danny Braunagel we want to see today. 

174.  EDMOND RUTH

Edmond Ruth also brought home a major decision in the first round against Phil Conigliaro of Harvard! It was a double-under-body-lock show, and it was beautiful. Now in the wrestlebacks, he'll first face a guy he's already beaten, Rocky Jordan of Chattanooga. 

Jordan is in his fifth year on a college team with the first four spent at Ohio State. This is his third NCAA tournament, and he made a Round of 12 at 184. Jordan, who has the coolest first name of all the Jordans except maybe Bo, will have to make weight, and he is a big hoss at 174. He will be expected to wrestle pretty early on in the day, and Edmond can put that to use by working him hard. 

Even though the Moc has a worse record against common opponents than the ILLINI (5-3 versus 5-1), has a much higher seed in the NCAA tournament, and has lost to him head-to-head, wrestlestat.com still thinks that Jordan will be the 7-4 winner here. 

The major turning point in their earlier match was a shot by Jordan, and a beautifully executed re-shot by Ruth that led to the takedown in the 5-2 win. 

Win there, and Edmond will face either #18 Tate Picklo of Oklahoma or #17 Donnell Washington of Indiana. Wrestlestat.com predicts a win for Edmond Ruth by one point against both those lads. Win that, and the ILLINI likely has a rematch with Nelson Brands of Iowa for AA honors, and that's another fellow he's already beaten. 

DYLAN CONNELL

The redshirt freshman didn't pull out any wins in his first NCAA tournament, losing a close 0-4 match to former AA Travis Wittlake of Okie Lite, then a disputed 4-8 match with David Key of Navy, a former Round of 12er. Those guys have been wrestling in college for five and four years respectively. 

It is especially hard for a redshirt Freshman big to win in the B1G and at the NCAAs. Dylan can build on what he did this year. 

That means it's time to keep working on his body--he's already added massive shoulders and biceps--and also honing those skills that will set him apart from the pack next year.