The ILLINI B1G Tournament Preview (Vol. 1)
WHAT: B1G Conference Tournament
AN OVERVIEW
The conference tournament can be viewed from many different angles. There are the individual wins and losses, there is the team race, and there is the NCAA qualification function. Since everybody says—and I agree—that the whole year is won or lost at the NCAA tournament, we will look deeply at the NCAA qualifier function as it applies to the ILLINI.
As long as they enter the B1G tournament, the ILLINI should have the following NCAA qualifiers: Lucas Byrd (133), Danny Pucino (141), Danny Braunagel (165), Edmond Ruth (174) and Zac Braunagel (197). These are the fellows who can shake hands once at the Big Ten tournament and still get an NCAA bid.
If the season ended today, Dylan Connell (184) would be an NCAA qualifier. His numbers are on the good side of the bubble now at no worse than #22 on the RPI and Coach's poll, but he’ll need to keep them there by the end of the tournament or earn his allocation slot.
Maximo Renteria (125), Jake Harrier (149) and Matt Wroblewski (285) will need to steal a bid. Lucky for them, those are weights that will get a lot of NCAA tournament allocations. I’ve seen projections of at least nine for each of those weight classes. That means the conference will wrestle these brackets out to ninth-, tenth or even eleventh-place winners, and the ILLINI wrestler needs to get his hand raised after that ninth-place match.
Can Wroblewski beat Indiana’s Jacob Bullock, Garrett Joles from Minnesota or Boone McDermott of Rutgers? Can Maximo beat Dean Peterson of Rutgers or Tristan Lujan of Michigan State? Harrier’s first year in an ILLINI singlet might come down to a ninth-place match with Indiana’s Graham Rooks.
As for individual performances, ILLINI fans are no doubt looking for Lucas Byrd to go off here. Byrd is the Wyrd! He has yet to meet RBY on the mat, and to get to that point, he’ll have to revenge himself on Jesse Mendez. Edmond Ruth and Zac Braunagel are in deep, deep weights at this tournament. It will be fun to see where they end up, and neither of them has seen their PSU opponents as well.
This is a tough tournament. So, more than one win from Danny Pucino, Danny Braunagel and Dylan Connell, and those fellows are likely placing and helping their seeds at the Big Dance.
A DAY IN HISTORY
It is Sunday, March 9, 1952.
The team champion at the B1G wrestling tournament is the University of ILLINOIS with a total of 28 points. Champion Norton Compton wins the 137-pound bracket, while Richard Meeks (115), Lou Kachiroubas (123), Martin Schwartz (167), and Max Ponder (177) finish second. William Zanetakos (191) finishes fourth. The ILLINI would go on to tie for sixth at that year's NCAA tournament with Meeks, Kachiroubas and Compton placing.
A REMINDER ABOUT THE BRACKETS
Because there are fourteen teams in the hilariously-named Big Ten Conference, you have a bracket that looks different from others. Your first and second seeds get a bye in the first round. In practice, this is how it looks, including wrestlebacks:
THE WRESTLERS
In this section we will look at the individual wrestlers and their potential conference tournament seeds. Unless otherwise noted, the rankings are from wrestlestat.com. The records are against Division One opponents only.
For example, many sites will list Indiana's Jacob Moran as having a 21-12 record. In fact, against Division One, his record is 12-12. That's a big difference. Conference dual records include forfeits. The seeds below are heavily weighted in favor of B1G dual records. Benefits of the doubt go to previous All Americans.
125. MAXIMO RENTERIA (#84, 4-11 overall; 1-7 B1G duals)
It would be easy to gloss over Renteria, as he had only one win in conference duals, and that came against Michigan State’s backup. There will not be an at-large (or wildcard) bid for him. He will need to steal an allocation with his placement at the tournament.
Maximo will have a golden opportunity at the beginning and at the end of his B1G tournament.
He will likely face one of the bigger wrestlers at this weight when the first whistle is blown at 9:00 am (Central). As the 12th, 13th or 14th seed, he will see the 3rd, 4th or 5th seed in the first match of the meet. Will fat and happy Seniors Barnett, McKee or Cronin have a rough cut? If they do, that is his opportunity.
He will also have an opportunity near the end of the tournament. The conference will wrestle this weight out to at least 9th place with at least nine NCAA allocations. A win over Rutgers’ Dean Peterson or Michigan’s Jack Medley or Michigan State’s Tristan Lujan in his last match, and he is going to the Big Dance.
It should be noted that in the last Coach’s ranking of 125, seven of the top ten spots belonged to Big Ten wrestlers. Maximo will need to trust his shape and his strength. Flexing an amazingly quick and technically-beautiful duck under or high crotch is Floor Exercise unless you secure a leg. Grab that leg and take him down, Maximo, you can do this!
SEEDS
- Spencer Lee (Iowa) (14-0; 8-0)
- Matt Ramos (Purdue) (26-3; 7-1)
- Liam Cronin (Nebraska) (18-3; 6-1)
- Eric Barnett (Wisconsin) (16-5; 4-4)
- Patrick McKee (Minnesota) (10-4; 3-4)
- Braxton Brown (Maryland) (20-4; 5-1)
- Michael DeAugustino (NW) (5-6; 3-3)
- Malik Heinselman (OSU) (20-4; 3-2)
- Jack Medley (Michigan) (19-8; 5-3)
- Dean Peterson (Rutgers) (20-7; 5-3)
- Jacob Moran (Indiana) (12-12; 2-6)
- Tristan Lujan (MSU) (10-8; 1-6)
- Gary Steen (PSU) (6-12; 1-6)
- MAXIMO RENTERIA (ILLINI) (4-11; 1-7)
133. LUCAS BYRD (#6, 23-3, 8-0)
There are really only three questions involved in Lucas Byrd’s tournament, from least important to most important: Will he be the second or third seed? Will he get revenge against Jesse Mendez? Will we finally get to see Byrd versus RBY? The answers to those questions will be yes, yes and hell yes.
The world demands Byrd versus RBY.
With the way the tournament brackets go, a second seed would get a first-round bye. Then, the winner between the 7th and 10th seeds. That would be Rutger's Joe Heilmann or MSU's Rayvon Foley given the seeds below.
The #3 seed would face King Sandoval of Maryland in the first round.
ILLINOIS fans would like to get a nice bonus win in the first round for the team race, but saving Lucas’ energy for the later rounds is more important.
As for getting the #2 seed, Mendez did have a win over the ILLINI during an early season tournament, but Byrd is 8-0 in conference while the Buckeye is 7-1. Moreover, the man in the Orange and Blue is a two-time All American. The ILLINI was ranked right behind Mendez in the previous Coach’s poll (#8, #9), and it was Jesse Mendez who has lost since then. Finally, in overall record, both have the same number of losses (3), but Byrd has nine more wins.
There were eleven B1G wrestlers in the last Coach’s poll. Unfortunately, it is likely that a few of them have fallen off simply because the competition in conference is incredible.
As an example, Michigan State's Rayvon Foley is an outstanding wrestler, but he is only 2-6 in conference duals. If he was just .500 in conference (4-4), his winning percentage against Division One wrestlers would be over .700 at 13-5.
[NOTE: Foley still probably gets an allocation spot for the conference because of his Coach's poll (#16) and RPI (#28) positions, although going 1-4 in his last five might jeopardize that.]
SEEDS
- RBY (PSU) (13-0; 6-0)
- LUCAS BYRD (ILLINI) (22-3; 8-0)
- Jesse Mendez (OSU) (13-3; 7-1)
- Chris Cannon (NW) (15-6; 6-2)
- Brody Teske (Iowa) (6-2; 5-1)
- Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) (13-6; 4-3)
- Joe Heilmann (Rutgers) (18-6; 5-3)
- Aaron Nagao (Minnesota) (14-3; 3-1)
- Henry Porter (Indiana) (13-6; 4-4)
- Rayvon Foley (MSU) (11-7; 2-6)
- Dustin Norris (Purdue) (10-13; 3-5)
- Taylor Lamont (Wisconsin) (9-12; 1-6)
- Kyle Burwick (Nebraska) (7-7; 1-6)
- King Sandoval (Maryland) (0-4; 0-3)
141. DANNY PUCINO (#22, 14-8, 6-2)
The ILLINI appeared to be hiding a limp in his last match. He has a large brace/sleeve on his leg. Hopefully, it was a tweak that he can work around for the post-season. This is the time for Danny to peak his conditioning, and there’s no way to tell how much any injury might affect that.
Pucino showed great promise a couple years ago jumping into the starting lineup for a couple of dual wins. After an early-season injury (neck or head), he has continued his mercurial efforts. He should be rewarded with a very nice seed, but I’ve seen some seeding projections that have not given him the credit he deserves.
If the coaches give credence to conference dual performances, the ILLINI would be a #4 seed. His 6-2 record is that good. This would really help out because a #4 seed would see the #13 seed. In this case, a one-conference-win wrestler.
Conference coaches might give Minnesota's Jake Bergeland that seed because of his head-to-head win over the ILLINI and his returning AA status. That's too big of a jump for me, as 4-4 isn't close enough to 6-2 to merit the move.
SEEDS
- Real Woods (Iowa) (13-0; 6-0)
- Brock Hardy (Nebraska) (24-4; 7-1)
- Beau Bartlett (PSU) (19-1; 7-1)
- DANNY PUCINO (ILLINI) (13-7; 6-2)
- Jake Bergeland (Minnesota) (13-7; 4-4)
- Joey Olivieri (Rutgers) (11-4; 5-2)
- Frankie Tal-Shahar (NW) (9-4; 4-3)
- Parker Filius (Purdue) (15-7; 5-3)
- Dylan D’Emilio (OSU) (12-9; 4-4)
- Cole Mattin (Michigan) (12-6; 2-3)
- Joseph Zargo (Wisconsin) (9-10; 2-5)
- Cayden Rooks (Indiana) (10-8; 1-6)
- Jordan Hamdan (MSU) (18-11; 1-6)
- Kal Miller (Maryland) (12-13; 0-7)
149. JAKE HARRIER (#171, 6-13, 3-4)
Jake will need some B1G magic to get a golden ticket to the Big Dance. Like his teammate Maximo, Harrier can surprise early in the tournament or on the second day. He will be much lighter than most of his opponents and will not have as tough a cut as, say, Minnesota’s Michael Blockhus or Indiana's Graham Rooks, two potential first round opponents.
Early projections are for the conference to receive nine automatic qualification spots, so there will at least be a ninth-place match at this weight. I think there’s more likely to be eight AQ spots, and that means the ILLINI will have to finish ahead of Graham Rooks of Indiana, Maryland’s Ethen Miller and Anthony White of Rutgers. That’s a tall order for a first-year conference wrestler who is a tad undersized.
A subplot that runs through all of the weights, including at 149, is whether any of the wrestlers are injured and cannot compete. At this weight, the Eye of Sauron is directed at Wisconsin’s Austin Gomez, who has not wrestled in weeks. Is he out for good? Will he get an injury DQ and medical forfeit out of the tournament. He would certainly get a wildcard.
That could leave another slot open for Harrier.
SEEDS
- Sammy Sasso (OSU) (21-2; 8-0)
- Yahya Thomas (NW) (19-2; 7-1)
- Austin Gomez (Wisconsin) (10-2; 4-1)
- Max Murin (Iowa) (17-3; 6-2)
- Shayne VanNess (PSU) (15-4; 5-3)
- Michael Blockhus (Minnesota) (14-4; 5-3)
- Graham Rooks (Indiana) (18-6; 5-3)
- Ethen Miller (Maryland) (25-6; 3-3)
- JAKE HARRIER (ILLINI) (4-13; 3-4)
- Chance Lamer (Michigan) (10-5; 1-2)
- Anthony White (Rutgers) (12-10; 2-6)
- Dayne Morton (Nebraska) (5-12; 2-4)
- Jayden Reynolds (Purdue) (5-13; 1-5)
- Peyton Omania (MSU) (10-9; 1-6)
157. MIKEY CARR (#16, 4-0, 3-0)
There is no weight in the B1G conference that has seen more surprises and abrupt changes and has required so many drastic reevaluations than 157. The biggest surprise, of course, was Mikey Carr popping into the Iowa dual like he was downloaded into the Matrix.
Rivaling that surprise are the downfalls of Brayton Lee of Minnesota and Will Lewan of Michigan. They were ranked as high as #1 earlier in the season, but a spate of losses and an injury to Lee, and they might end up as seven and ten seeds in the conference tournament.
Trevor Chumbley of Stupid Northwestern, Derek Gilcher of Indiana and Paddy Gallagher made early season waves, but they washed ashore during B1G season. As a four seed, Carr would face either one-win Andrew Clark of Rutgers in his first match or Maryland’s Michael North.
He could also be a five seed. In that case, there's the possibility of facing 1-5 Brayton Lee in his first match!
With only four matches to his name, Carr will need to step gingerly at the tournament. Unless he’s a finalist, he should get to the magic number of eight for a win percentage and a valid Coach’s ranking. He has the ability to beat anybody in this bracket, although a finals match against the top dogs might be a tough go since his opponent’ll likely outweigh him.
SEED
- Peyton Robb (Nebraska) (22-0; 7-0)
- Levi Haines (PSU) (18-1; 7-0)
- Kendall Coleman (Purdue) (24-3; 6-1)
- Chase Saldate (MSU) (20-4; 8-0)
- MIKEY CARR (ILLINI) (4-0; 3-0)
- Cobe Siebrecht (Iowa) (10-4; 4-3)
- Will Lewan (Michigan) (15-5; 5-3)
- Trevor Chumbley (NW) (20-5; 4-3)
- Garrett Model (Wisconsin) (14-7; 4-4)
- Paddy Gallagher (OSU) (10-6; 3-5)
- Derek Gilcher (Indiana) (18-10; 3-5)
- Brayton Lee (Minnesota) (3-7; 1-5)
- Andrew Clark (Rutgers) (16-13; 1-7)
- Michael North (Maryland) (15-6; 0-3)
165. DANNY BRAUNAGEL (#29, 18-8, 3-5)
You and I have had this conversation before, but it bears repeating. Please, God, let Danny Braunagel have an injury-free post-season.
I said "please."
The warning signs are there. Danny showed up to the dual three matches ago with his hand heavily bandaged up. Two matches ago, it seemed the bandages had gotten heavier. In the last dual, he wasn't in the lineup.
He deserves a great post-season, as he missed out last year with an injury that meant an injury forfeit in the first round of the B1G tournament. The year before that, he broke a bone in his arm nearish to the end of the season.
Those bones are important!
Danny healed it up and wore a brace and wrestled on. I truly believe that a 100% Danny Braunagel is fighting for All-American honors. Like his brother, he was Honorable Mention AA during the Covid season.
There are three wrestlers with 3-4 conference dual records at this weight. I see Danny pulling the #10 seed ahead of them because of name recognition, and because coaches like this kind of wrestler.
In that event, he will likely see one of the 5-3 wrestlers (Maxx Mayfield, Caleb Fish) or the 4-3 Nick South or Carson Kharchla at 3-2 in the first round. If 100% Danny would be favored to beat them all, except that an uninjured Kharchla would be a wrestlestat.com favorite against him.
- Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin) (18-3; 7-1)
- Patrick Kennedy (Iowa) (15-2; 6-1)
- Alex Facundo (PSU) (16-2; 6-1)
- Cameron Amine (Michigan) (10-2; 4-1)
- Maxx Mayfield (NW) (19-9; 5-3)
- Caleb Fish (MSU) (21-6; 5-3)
- Carson Kharchla (OSU) (9-3; 3-2)
- Nick South (Indiana) (7-5; 4-3)
- Cael Carlson (Minnesota) (10-7; 2-2)
- DANNY BRAUNAGEL (ILLINI) (16-8; 3-4)
- Bubba Wilson (Nebraska) (12-10; 3-4)
- John Martin Best (Maryland) (6-14; 3-4)
- Robert Kanniard (Rutgers) (3-3; 1-2)
- Cooper Noehre (Purdue) (7-12; 0-7)
174. EDMOND RUTH (#16, 24-3, 6-2)
This weight was a tough seed for the ILLINI, as Edmond has had a fantastic year, but there are a lot of quality wrestlers at 174 in the B1G. The big problem here was that Edmond has had head-to-head losses to both Bailee O'Reilly and Ethan Smith.
I expect the coaches will give the #3 or #4 seed to Ethan Smith because of his prior AA, although his conference dual mark doesn't deserve it.
As a #5 seed, the ILLINI would likely face one of the one-win wrestlers in the first round. That would mean Dominic Solis of Maryland, Josh Otto of Wisconsin or Cesar Garza of Michigan State.
He has beaten all three.
Even a faltering at the conference tournament wouldn't hurt Ruth too much, as he is high enough in the Coach's poll and has a lofty-enough win percentage to be an easy wild card or at large selection.
He's been working hard this year, check out his post-workout videos on Instagram for that, and then there's the great story about the two brothers meeting up at the University of ILLINOIS. That's some fantastic "Ruthless" content, my friends.
SEEDS
- Carter Starocci (PSU) (16-0; 8-0)
- Mikey Labriola (Nebraska) (22-0; 7-0)
- Ethan Smith (OSU) (15-5; 3-2)
- Bailee O’Reilly (Minnesota) (15-3; 7-1)
- EDMOND RUTH (ILLINI) (24-3; 6-2)
- Donnell Washington (Indiana) (18-3; 5-3)
- Troy Fisher (NW) (13-4; 3-1)
- Nelson Brands (Iowa) (6-4, 3-3)
- Max Maylor (Michigan) (13-7; 4-3)
- Jackson Turley (Rutgers) (7-10; 3-5)
- Dominic Solis (Maryland) (10-11; 1-6)
- Josh Otto (Wisconsin) (6-14; 1-6)
- Cesar Garza (MSU) (11-11; 1-7)
- Macarteny Parkinson (Purdue) (8-11; 0-2)
184. DYLAN CONNELL
(#26, 16-14, 4-4)
This looks like a first-round clash between a four-time ILLINOIS state champ and three-time New Jersey champ Brian Soldano. Unlike most weights this year, 184 seems very clear. The only possible controversy in the seeds below is putting MSU's Layne Mxyzptlk ahead of Lenny Pinto.
They're pretty interchangeable.
The way the dual records sorted out, Dylan Connell is looking at a nine seed and Soldano the eight. Throw in Pinto, and you have the nucleus of a great weight in the conference for years to come. As for the Connell versus Soldano matchup, they've already met this year at the Midlands.
It was Soldano who emerged the 5-2 winner. In my mind, though, it was Connell who emerged as a new wrestler at and after that tournament. That's when the young ILLINI started to believe. The last stretch of matches has been rough on both of them, though, with Dylan going 0-4, while Soldano has been 2-4.
Whoever wins the match will face a fresh Aaron Brooks in the second round, and that's not a happy thing. Connell is kind of in a gray area in terms of the Coach's poll and RPI. He is #21 in the former and #22 in the latter, so he should be good to go, but a couple of wins in this tournament will be nice to solidify that as well as a decent NCAA seed.
SEEDS
- Aaron Brooks (PSU) (9-1, 5-0)
- Isaiah Salazar (Minnesota) (14-1, 7-0)
- Kaleb Romero (OSU) (18-4, 5-1)
- Matt Finesilver (Michigan) (19-5, 6-2)
- Layne Malczewski (MSU) (17-3, 5-2)
- Lenny Pinto (Nebraska) (17-7, 6-2)
- Abe Assad (Iowa) (15-2, 4-1)
- Brian Soldano (Rutgers) (18-6, 3-4)
- DYLAN CONNELL (ILLINI) (15-14, 4-4)
- Tyler Dow (Wisconsin) (7-11, 3-5)
- Ben Vanadia (Purdue) (11-14, 2-6)
- Evan Bates (NW) 14-15, 1-6)
- Clayton Fielden (Indiana) (2-12, 0-6)
- Kevin Makosky (Maryland) (2-5, 0-3)
197. ZAC BRAUNAGEL
(#14, 17-5, 6-2)
If 184 was crystal clear, the seedings at 197 are pretty opaque after the top two. I have Zac Braunagel at three because of his win over Jacob Warner of Iowa. On the other hand, Michigan State's Cam Caffey has a win over the Brawlnagel.
What do you do with Warner?
He has a 3-3 record in conference, but he is a returning National Finalist. He could be the three seed or the seventh or even eighth seed. In any event, this will be one of the most interesting weights at the B1G tournament. There are only two popsicles out of fourteen wrestlers (although I do have some doubts about Indiana's Nick Willham--how did he get three conference wins?).
It is possible for Zac to end up with a seed anywhere from three to five. In that event, he will face either one of the popsicles (Filipovich, Yatooma) or a worthier opponent in Andrew Davison from Stupid Northwestern. It all depends on what the conference coaches do with Warner's seed.
The good news is that if the pre-seeds come out with Warner just above the biggest Braunagel, then the ILLINI coaches have a case to challenge the seeding. The bad news is if the pre-seeds have Brawny just above Caffey, then the MSU staff can challenge that seed.
This bureaucratic seeding discussion is important (unlike the interminable Senate hearings in Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace) because a three seed puts him across the bracket from #1 Max Dean. A four or five seed puts him on the same side.
If he gets one of the popsicles in the first round, look for possible bonus from the ILLINI Captain. If he has Davison, it will probably be a regular decision win. Then, pop the popcorn!
SEEDS
- Max Dean (PSU) (17-2, 8-0)
- Silas Allred (Nebraska) (20-5, 7-1)
- ZAC BRAUNAGEL (ILLINI) (17-5, 6-2)
- Jacob Warner (Iowa) (13-4, 3-3)
- Cam Caffey (MSU) (13-3, 6-2)
- Braxton Amos (Wisconsin) (16-5, 5-3)
- Gavin Hoffman (OSU) (13-5, 4-1)
- Jaxon Smith (Maryland) (15-5, 2-0)
- Michial Foy (Minnesota) (13-8, 4-4)
- Nick Willham (Indiana) (12-7, 3-2)
- Billy Janzer (Rutgers) (5-10, 3-5)
- Andrew Davison (NW) (16-11, 2-6)
- Brendan Yatooma (Michigan) (4-12, 1-6)
- Hayden Filipovich (Purdue) (5-19, 0-7)
285. MATT WROBLEWSKI (#74, 11-15, 1-7)
I've seen three Automatic Qualification estimates involving B1G heavyweights, and two of them predict nine slots, while the third estimates that the conference will get eight. I am not sanguine about any of the AQ predictions for the Big Ten, though, because they have seemed overly optimistic compared to previous years.
Still, the numbers are the numbers, and teams like ILLINOIS, Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland have really improved, while only Purdue and Rutgers seem to have declined.
The difference between eight and nine AQ spots could be important for Matt Wroblewski, as he'll need to steal one of them. That means finishing ahead of Boone McDermott, Jaron Smith, Hayden Copass, Cale Davidson, Ryan Vasbinder and Garrett Joles.
He can do that, but will he?
That means putting together a couple of wins. He will likely start out the tournament as the #14 seed with a match against Iowa's Tony Cassioppi or Northwestern's Lucas Davison. (I have it as Cassioppi because he will get the nod for the three seed because of his head-to-head win over Davison).
That will mean a likely first-round wrestleback match against either Garrett Joles or Hayden Copass. And that will be the biggest match of his college career (besides pinning Nebraska on Senior Night).
SEEDS
- Mason Parris (Michigan) (25-0, 8-0)
- Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) (12-1, 6-1)
- Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) (16-2, 5-2)
- Lucas Davison (NW) (18-2, 7-1)
- Trent Hilger (Wisconsin) (13-6, 4-4)
- Jacob Bullock (Indiana) (16-4, 5-3)
- Tate Orndorff (OSU) (10-5, 4-3)
- Boone McDermott (Rutgers) (13-3, 2-0)
- Jaron Smith (Maryland) (12-8, 4-3)
- Hayden Copass (Purdue) (5-7, 3-4)
- Garrett Joles (Minnesota) (11-11, 3-5)
- Cale Davidson (Nebraska (8-15, 1-5)
- Ryan Vasbinder (MSU) (13-12, 2-6)
- MATT WROBLEWSKI (ILLINI) (11-15, 1-7)
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