Preview of the ILLINI versus Iowa State Dual

WHO:  Iowa State Cyclones

WHAT:  Away Dual

WHERE:  Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa

WHEN:  Sunday, February 12, at Noon (Central)

WHY:  No Reason Given, No Reason Needed

TV/STREAMING:  ESPN+ (subscription service; $9.99 per month)

TICKETS:  $10.00 Adults; $5.00 Youth

WHY WE HATES IOWA STATE

I've been saving up my Iowa State hates for three decades. 

First off, the robes. They look ridiculous. In boxing, there's one guy wearing a robe. Boxers don't look like a red and yellow velvet witches coven porn video. Robes are for boxers, Hollywood starlets and middle-aged businessmen at the Hyatt Regency waiting for their Tinder dates. 

We hate Iowa State because their conference is a joke. The Big 12 has stupid teams like Nebraska and Missouri (oops) and over-rated schools like Texas and Oklahoma (too soon?). 

But, you say, they did add Cincinnati, BYU, Central Florida and Houston. LOL! 

Any mention of Iowa State reminds me that Iowa exists, and that puts me in an ugly mood. They are our sketchy neighbors with face tattoos and a (suspected) meth lab in the garage. 

A DAY IN HISTORY

It is Saturday, February 3, 1940.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Fran Tarkenton is born. Glenn Miller is high on the charts with his hit In the Mood. You still have to wait seven more days for the first-ever Tom and Jerry cartoon called Puss Gets the Boot. Gone with the Wind is still in theaters, while Pinocchio--Disney's second feature-length film--opens in a week. 

Russia's war with Finland is heating up; Nazis pilots sink the Norwegian ship Tempo. 

But in the United States, at least, good triumphs over evil as the Fighting ILLINI beat the Iowa State Cyclones in a wrestling dual by the score of 14.5 to 13.5. This is part of ILLINOIS' all-time 7-3 winning record against that dreadful team. This is what the Washington, D.C. Evening Star reported the next day:

THE TEAMS

#18 ILLINOIS is 6-6 with the following dual results: Buffalo (28-9), NC State (12-27), Chattanooga (32-9), Pitt (6-30), Iowa (19-25), Wisconsin (18-17), Purdue (31-9), Stupid Northwestern (17-17), Maryland (29-11), Minnesota (9-24), Nebraska (19-27) and Michigan State (17-16). 

According to our friends at FightingILLINI.com the teams have three common opponents, #19 Wisconsin (ISU won 26-6) (ILLINI won 18-17), #2 Iowa (ISU lost 15-18) (ILLINI lost 19-25), and #16 Pittsburgh (ISU won 16-15) (ILLINI lost 6-30).

The #3 Iowa State Cyclones are 14-2 in duals, starting of their season with wins over Little Rock (33-7), Campbell (34-3), Wisconsin (26-6), Cal Baptist (39-9), Grand View (40-0), then suffering a loss to Iowa (15-18), before beating Oregon State (26-6), Cornell (18-13), and then losing to PSU (12-22), beating Wyoming (37-7), ASU (19-15), Utah Valley (31-9), Oklahoma (25-12), Oklahoma State (18-11), West Virginia (20-13) and Pittsburgh (16-15). 

They will have a dual at Northern Iowa on Friday, February 10, then face the ILLINI on Sunday. Since Iowa is a common opponent, let's look at that Cyclone dual box score:

No. 7 Iowa State 15, No. 2 Iowa 18

125: No. 1 Spencer Lee maj. dec. Corey Cabanban, 16-5
133: Ramazan Attasauov (4-0) dec. Cullan Schriever, 3-1
141: No. 2 Real Woods dec. No. 12 Casey Swiderski, 4-2
149: No. 8 Paniro Johnson dec. No. 6 Max Murin, 3-1 SV-1
157:  No. 25 Cobe Siebrecht maj. dec. Jason Kraisser, 10-2
165: No. 3 David Carr dec. No. 13 Patrick Kennedy, 10-4
174: No. 15 Nelson Brands maj. dec. MJ Gaitan, 13-5
184: No. 5 Marcus Coleman dec. No. 8 Abe Assad, 3-2
197: No. 6 Yonger Bastida dec. No. 2 Jacob Warner, 4-3
285: No. 4 Tony Cassioppi dec. No. 10 Sam Schuyler, 9-2

Attendance: 14,905

THE WRESTLERS

125.  MAXIMO RENTERIA (#82, 4-10) versus CALEB FUESSLEY (#85, 4-10)

Fuessley is 7-11 if you count matches against non-division-one opponents. Of course, that means he's lost this season to a non-division-one opponent. #48 Kysen Terukina is injured and out for the year for the Cyclones. After getting his first B1G dual win last weekend, Renteria is primed to add his first dual win in a match against a top three team. 

This is a must-have win if the ILLINI are to upset Iowa State or at least keep the score close. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point win for Renteria even though he lost by one point to this guy last season. That happened at the UNI Open when the littlest ILLINI was recovering from Covid. 

Fuessley has lost two dual matches in a row since he's been thrust into the lineup. Just based on results, you can tell that he's much improved over his first three years in the Cyclone lineup. But Maximo should now have the confidence to break out, even in an away gym, so I'll buy what wrestlestat.com is selling. PREDICTION: ILLINI by decision. 

133.  LUCAS BYRD (#6, 22-3) versus ZACH REDDING (#31, 11-8)

Redding has been kind of scattershot this season, his third on the roster and second as a starter. By scattershot, I mean that his last match was a close 4-5 loss to Micky Phillipi of Pitt, but his loss immediately before that was by four points to the #82 wrestler in the country. He's beaten Wisconsin's Taylor LaMont by six, and kept it close (3-5) with Daton Fix. Yet, he's also been pinned by the #101 wrestler. 

As a true freshman he had a couple of minor upsets in the Big 12 tournament last season that allowed him to finish with a 6-7 record after his surprise NCAA tournament berth. 

The issue may be weight. Wearing a redshirt last year, Redding wrestled at 141, presumably where he felt comfortable. He's also wrestled a couple of duals this year up at 141. Lucas Byrd is 7-2 against the same folks who have given the Cyclone a 3-4 record. 

I think Lucas don't take kindly to no part-time 133-pound wrestler. The algorithm is calling for a seven-point win for the ILLINI. If the meet starts at 125 or 133, I can certainly see Redding grabbing a leg or bellying down in the third period to avoid the major. 

The other possibility for Iowa State is Ramazan Attasauov (#24, 11-5). He was expected to be the starter, but he hasn't wrestled in a month. He made it to the NCAA tournament last year, but that also ended with an injury and medical forfeit. Wrestlestat.com predicts a Byrd win against him by six points. 

It would be crazy for Kevin Dresser to have a kid just back from injury wrestle his first match against Lucas Byrd. Right? PREDICTION: BYRD IS THE WYRD! 

141.  DANNY PUCINO (#13, 14-7) versus CASEY SWIDERSKI (#39, 5-6)

Swiderski is 8-6 against all divisions.

Earlier in the season, it was Swiderski this and Swiderski that. The hype hit a crescendo when the Cyclone's record was 4-0, and he lost by a narrow 2-3 margin to Real Woods. Since then, he's been 4-5. Beating Danny Pucino would be the biggest win of his college career so far. 

In his defense, he has wrestled a tough schedule. His last match was a very close loss to Pitt's Cole Matthews. He hasn't lost to anybody below #28 on wrestlestat.com. But still, the losses are mounting.

Perhaps that's why wrestlestat.com is calling for an ILLINI major here? According to media reports, Swiderski is battling a shoulder injury that kept him out for a month. 

He's changed his style, and reporters are even asking him if he will try to follow the Cory Clark path. You might recall that the Hawkeye ended up wrestling with a shoulder harness, but he also won a national title wearing it. 

I'm not buying the major for Danny, but I believe he can beat this guy. PREDICTION: ILLINI decision.

149.  JAKE HARRIER (#174, 6-12) versus PANIRO JOHNSON (#12, 12-3)

Johnson had a very nice redshirt season, but it certainly wasn't perfect at 19-6 with two losses to the #91 wrestler, a backup at Minnesota. So, it was a surprise to see him beat Wisconsin's Austin Gomez (9-4) and Max Murin (3-1) to fashion an early-season 6-0 record. Then he took Yianni Diakomihalis into sudden victory before losing. 

Since then, the Cyclone has been a more human 6-2, but that includes wins over Penn State's #16 Shayne Van Ness and Oklahoma State's #30 Victor Voinovich. 

There are no common opponents between Jake Harrier and his foe. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major for the bad guy. Like the preceding analysis at 141, I'm not buying it. Johnson has had two bonus point wins all season, and Harrier is coming off the biggest win of his young career. At #174 on the wrestlestat.com charts, Harrier is probably the most undervalued wrestler in the NCAA right now. 

The Cyclone beat #107 Isaiah Delgado of Utah Valley 5-2 earlier in the season. That's about where I see this match as well. PREDICTION: Iowa State decision. 

157.  ANTHONY FEDERICO (#116, 5-12) versus JASON KRAISSER (#37, 17-8)

I've been super-impressed with the progress of Jake Harrier and Anthony Federico. Both are under-sized tigers who will fight their ***** off during a match. Federico is coming off an 0-2 defeat by highly-ranked Chase Saldate of Michigan State. With his takedown of Peyton Robb and shoulda, woulda, coulda near-takedown of Kendall Coleman, he is building confidence. Can he beat Jason Kraisser? 

I don't know. 

But you can always bet that he'll put up a good fight. 

Every match from MIKEY CARR (#16, 3-0) is another blessing for ILLINI fans. Will he travel to Ames, Iowa for this matchup, or does he have Medical School things to do? That cadaver isn't going to dissect itself, Doctor Carr! He's following in the footsteps of National Champion Dr. John Lockhart and two-time National Finalist Dr. Kyle Ott. Wouldn't it be something if he got an NCAA finals as well? 

In a fit of computational insanity, the wrestlestat.com algorithm is predicting a Kraisser win over Carr. The facts that Carr is ranked twenty-one spots better than Kraisser and is 2-0 against common opponents, while the Cyclone is 0-2 (including losing a major decision to Iowa's Cobe Seibrecht) are apparently irrelevant. 

I think Federico might beat this guy. I'm pretty **** sure Carr can. In his four years at Iowa State and Campbell before that, Kraisser's best win was against the #46 guy. A win against Mikey Carr would be, by leaps and bounds, his best win in college. That would be the same for Federico beating Kraisser, though, as Anthony's best win is against #74. Yet, he's improving match by match, and he's slowly getting the size and confidence to get that first big win. PREDICTION: ILLINI decision. 

165.  DANNY BRAUNAGEL (#29, 18-8) versus DAVID CARR (#2, 16-0)

Carr has lost three matches in his career. That's an IMAR- or Ed Ruth-like statistic. He's placed first, third and was a Covid-year first-team AA at the NCAA tournament. The Brawlnagel is 5-6 against common opponents, while the Cyclone is 8-1. That lone loss was nearly five years ago against Peyton Mocco. 

Wrestlestat.com is calling for a major decision for Iowa State. With the way the Littlest Braunagel has been fighting an illness or the big pull, and with the huge bandage wrap on his hand, he will be hard-pressed to keep it to a decision. 

But since Carr is only a fifty-percent bonus wrestler this season, and since Danny is a fighter, this match straddles the gray area between decision and major. PREDICTION: Decision for the Cyclone. 

174.  EDMOND RUTH (#14, 23-3) versus JULIAN BRODERSON (#49, 13-8)

There has been a revolving door at this weight for the Cyclones. They've wrestled three different guys in their last five duals. I have listed Julian Broderson because he wrestled in three of them. However, MJ GAITAN (#35, 6-5) is the higher-ranked wrestler, and he wore the Iowa State colors in their last dual against Pitt. Yet, Broderson also beat Gaitan at the Southern Scuffle. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a one-point win for Ruth no matter which of these guys he wrestles. I think it won't be quite that close. In terms of common opposition, Ruthless is 4-0, while Gaitan is 1-2 (including a major decision loss to Nelson Brands). Ruthfull is 3-2 against common opposition with Broderson, who is 2-2. Both of Ruth's losses were to Cornell's Chris Foca, while Broderson only wrestled and lost to Foca once. 

Broderson has lost his last three matches, including defeats by the #48 and #47 wrestlers. He did give Carter Starroci a decent 1-5 match earlier in the year. Gaitan is a true Freshman, who was #35 on the recruiting big board last season at 160 pounds. 

PREDICTION: ILLINI by decision. 

184.  DYLAN CONNELL (#24, 16-13) versus MARCUS COLEMAN (#3, 15-1)

I expected Dylan Connell to wrestle at 165 or 174 in college, but he's grown like a retirement village in Florida. He now seems taller than the average wrestler at this weight, and his shoulders and biceps have to be above average as well. He can expect many great moments in the future. 

This may not be one of them. Coleman is having a beastly year. He was an All American last season, a Round of 16er the year before, and a national qualifier the two years before that. His lone loss in 2022-2023 was to #6 Trey Munoz of Oregon State, and his big win was tacking on Aaron Brooks' third career loss by the score of 9-7. 

He was a loser in one of my favorite matches at the NCAA tournament last season:

That's some high-elite-level wrestling! That match, and Lucas Byrd's Blood Round and Fifth-Place matches, were not only my favorites, but objectively some of the best wrestling at the Big Dance. 

Dylan Connell can expect excellent scouting reports from the Brawlnagel and whatever the coaching staff put together for that second round NCAA match. 

The ILLINI is 3-5 against common opposition, while the Cyclone is 7-2. Wrestlestat.com is prognosticating a 10-5 win for Coleman, and that seems fair to me. In his last match, the ISU kid beat Reece Heller of Pitt by that same score, and I think Connell has pulled himself up to that level. 

Coleman's got a pretty healthy 43.75% bonus rate, but about 95% of his bonus has come against wrestlers ranked #34 or worse. His lone bonus over a top-ranked wrestler, Wisconsin's Tyler Dow at 7-10 and somehow #22, is due to the algorithm's Iowa Hawkeye bias. You see, Dow caught Abe Assad with a throw and pinned him. That's how he got that #22 ranking. Dylan beat the Badger Dow 5-3 and controlled him the whole match. 

I would put Michigan State's Layne Mxyzptlk and Minnesota's Isaiah Salazar almost at the level of Marcus Coleman, and those were two-points and one-point losses recently for the Orange and Blue youngster. PREDICTION: ISU by decision. 

197.  ZAC BRAUNAGEL (#17, 19-5) versus YONGER BASTIDA (#7, 13-2)

This will be a marque matchup for the fans. The thirty-five-year-old Cuban freestyler has had a great year so far with some incredible upsets and wins. But so has Zac. Yonger got pinned by Nebraska's Silas Allred and lost a close match to Pitt's Nino Bonaccorsi. But so did Zac. 

Bastida is not that big for a 197er, and is very quick. But the same goes for Zac Braunagel. The key for the ILLINI is to defend the quick single from the Cuban, and either get the takedown himself in the first period, or reach the second period scoreless. 

The ISU kid has learned folkstyle by now--he finished fifth at the Big Dance last year--but I'd still like to see him underneath the Brawlnagel in the tie-breakers. Yonger is 3-2 against top twenty wrestlers this year with wins over Wisconsin's Braxton Amos, Oklahoma State's #19 Luke Surber, and Cornell's #17 Lewis Fernandes, as well as losses to Nino Bonaccorsi and Max Dean. 

Zac will need to defend Bastida's underhooks, and be ready when he selects neutral. His claw ride isn't that good yet, so Brawny should be able to escape. Can the Cyclone? PREDICTION: Tossup, slight edge to ISU. 

285.  MATT WROBLEWSKI (#72, 11-14) versus SAM SCHUYLER (#10, 12-2)

Polish Power has been on the upswing lately. Even if doesn't get the win, Wroblewski has been able to limit damages against everyone except the very elite at the weight. The ILLINI had a dip during the Midlands, but he's been aggressive ever since. 

The Cyclone will still be the big favorite here. 

Against common opposition, WroboCop is 6-24, while Schuyler is 8-12. The reason there are so many common opponents is that Schuyler (pronounced "Skyler" as in "Reach for the Skyler") wrestled at 197 two years ago. During the last two seasons, the Cyclone has bulked up and wrestled at heavyweight. He qualified for NCAAs both years at 285.

The ILLINI will be quite a bit taller than his opponent, but the Cyclone has put on a lot of good weight. He will attack from distance with knee-to-the-mat singles, and he will keep very low in neutral. The ISU kid has beaten four heavyweights this year ranked #26 or better, including Trent Dilger (3-2), and his only losses are to elite wrestlers Cohlton Schultz and Tony Cassioppi. 

Wrestlestat.com's algorithm is calling for a 7-4 Iowa State win. Wroblewski will need his lungs and his great defense to keep this from a major. PREDICTION: ISU decision, straddles the major decision gray zone. 

CONCLUSION

This will be a hot one in Ames, ******* Iowa. They had over 14,000 in attendance for their match with Iowa. This crowd will not be that big, but what else ya gonna do in Ames, ******* Iowa? One advantage that the ILLINI should enjoy is that the Cyclones must travel to #17 Northern Iowa for a dual on Friday, get banged up by the Panthers, and then face ILLINOIS on Sunday. 

That's a bit of an in-state rivalry, so you know UNI will be up for it. They also have some very good wrestlers that Iowa State will need to spend time preparing for and scouting. 

Since the Minnesota dual, the ILLINI have been fighting hard up and down the lineup. This will be a good time to continue that, as otherwise the Cyclones are going to go big on the scoreboard. It is also a good time considering the Orange and Blue will want to start peaking right about now. The B1G championships start on March 4. 

Wrestlestat.com's algorithm predicts a 20-13 win for the bad guys. (That includes Kraisser beating Carr, but also Pucino scoring a major decision). 

The lower weights for the Cyclones have been wrecked by injuries this year, with wrestlers either out for the entire year or a month or more. Without Kysen Terukina and Ramazan Attasauov, and with Casey Swiderski banged up, ILLINOIS will need to score big here. 

That's because the Iowa State upper weights are bonkers. Except for the revolving door at 174, the chubbier Cyclones have an average wrestlestat.com ranking of 5.4. Securing an ILLINI win at 174 will be imperative because an Orange and Blue win at 165 or 184 or 285 would be a massive upset, and at 197, it would be a mild upset. 

This will be a dual with a lot of pretty heavy favorites. The big questions will be: Does Mikey Carr wrestle? Can Maximo Renteria and Danny Pucino secure wins? Will Zac Braunagel pull the mild upset over his grandfatherly opponent?