Two-for-One Double Preview Issue: Nebraska & Michigan State ($1.00)

 

WHO:  Nebraska Cornhuskers

WHAT:  Final Home Dual; Senior Day! 

WHERE:  State Farm Center, Champaign, ILLINOIS

WHEN:  Friday, February 3 at 7:00 PM (Central)

WHY:  Vivisect the Huskers!

SPECIAL:  Senior Day, WHITE OUT, Arm Wrestling tournament for an Xbox

TICKETS:  FREE ADMISSION

TV/STREAMING:  BTN+ (subscription service)

AN OBSERVATION ABOUT THE ALGORITHM

Before the ILLINI wrestled Minnesota last Saturday, and before Nebraska wrestled Wisconsin, and before Michigan State wrestled Maryland and Ohio State, I checked to see which team wrestlestat.com predicted to win these duals. At that time, the algorithm predicted the ILLINI to beat both Nebraska and Michigan State by the same score, 16-15. 

After the ILLINI got shellacked by Minnesota, the predicted dual score stayed the same against Nebraska, a 16-15 win for the good guys. But against the Spartans, the prognosticated win increased for ILLINOIS, to an 18-12 margin. That's the case even though MSU whupped Maryland 37-9. 

THE TEAMS

The ILLINI are 5-5 in duals. They started off with a 28-9 win over Buffalo, lost to NC State 12-27, beat Chattanooga 32-9, got beat by Pitt 6-30, lost a close one to Iowa 19-25, beat Wisconsin 18-17, mauled Purdue 31-9, lost a controversial 17-17 match with Northwestern, whupped Maryland 29-11, and most recently got woodshedded by Minnesota 9-24. 

Nebraska is 7-3, and they started off with a surprising loss to North Dakota State (16-20), beat Army (25-9), lost to NC State (10-23), beat South Dakota State (22-17), Gardner-Webb (37-6), Campbell (37-6), Minnesota (21-9) and Northwestern (22-15) before losing to Iowa (6-34), and finally, beat Wisconsin (24-11). Here's their last dual box score:

#10 Nebraska 24, #13 Wisconsin 11

125: #5 Liam Cronin (NEB) dec. #8 Eric Barnett (WIS) 7-3 (NEB 3, WIS 0)
133: #29 Taylor LaMont (WIS) dec. #32 Kyle Burwick (NEB) 2-0 (NEB 3, WIS 3)
141: #6 Brock Hardy (NEB) dec. #24 Joseph Zargo (WIS) 7-2 (NEB 6, WIS 3)
149: Dayne Morton (NEB) dec. Aidan Medora (WIS) 7-3 (NEB 9, WIS 3)
157: #1 Peyton Robb (NEB) maj. dec. #18 Garrett Model (WIS) 11-3 (NEB 13, WIS 3)
165: #7 Dean Hamiti (WIS) tech. fall #32 Bubba Wilson (NEB) 17-2 (7:00) (NEB 13, WIS 8)
174: #2 Mikey Labriola (NEB) maj. dec. Josh Otto (WIS) 16-7 (NEB 17, WIS 8)
184: #16 Lenny Pinto (NEB) maj. dec. Tyler Dow (WIS) 16-4 (NEB 21, WIS 8)
197: #22 Silas Allred (NEB) dec. #12 Braxton Amos (WIS) 7-2 (NEB 24, WIS 8)
285: #11 Trent Hillger (WIS) dec. Cale Davidson (NEB) 9-2 (NEB 24, WIS 11)

Michigan State is 8-5 and started their season with wins over Davidson (52-0), Presbyterian (46-3), American (33-0), Binghamton (29-6), Princeton (21-15), Brown (38-3) and Bucknell (28-9). Then, the Spartans wrestled B1G schools, losing to Michigan (10-25), Minnesota (11-21), Rutgers (15-16), Penn State (6-34) before finally beating Maryland (37-9) and losing to Ohio State (3-36). Here's their last box score:

#22 Michigan State 3, #6 Ohio State 36

125 | #10 Malik Heinselman (OSU) dec. #29 Tristan Lujan (MSU) 3-2 | OSU 3-0
133 | #9 Jesse Mendez (OSU) major dec. #18 Rayvon Foley (MSU) 10-2 | OSU 7-0
141 | #18 Dylan D'Emilio (OSU) fall over Jordan Hamdan (MSU) 6:23 | OSU 13-0
149 | #3 Sammy Sasso (OSU) fall over Peyton Omania (MSU) 4:35 | OSU 19-0
157 | #13 Chase Saldate (MSU) dec. #23 Paddy Gallagher (OSU) 5-4 | OSU 19-3
165 | #9 Carson Karchla (OSU) dec. #27 Caleb Fish (MSU) 7-2 | OSU 22-3
174 | Isaac Wilcox (OSU) dec. Ceasar Garza (MSU) TB-2, 3-1 | OSU 25-3
184 | #5 Kaleb Romero (OSU) tech. fall over Lucas Daly (MSU) 21-6 | OSU 30-3
197 | #21 Gavin Hoffman (OSU) dec. #14 Cameron Caffey (MSU) 3-2 | OSU 33-3
285 | #16 Tate Orndorff (OSU) dec. Ryan Vasbinder (MSU) 6-3 | OSU wins 36-3

THE WRESTLERS

125.  Maximo Renteria (#88, 3-9) versus Liam Cronin (#9, 14-3)

Cronin is having a great year. He was named NCAA and Big Ten wrestler of the week, although the announcement was hilarious because it showed up as a crawl on BTN during his :38 match with Spencer Lee. Something to show the grandkids! 

Cronin will pressure forward constantly. He likes to tie up, especially with his underhook and collar tie. Mostly, he wants to play the Nelson Brands game--let his opponent shoot and reattack. 

The Cornhusker has had some nice wins this year over Barnett, DeAugustino and McKee. Maximo has a very nice resource in the room with him, as Justin Cardani was 3-1 against Cronin. 

The ILLINI will need to remain composed against the forward pressure, and when he goes for, say, a duckunder or a fireman's, then go 100% and finish quickly. PREDICTION: Maximo will need to show composure and maturity to keep this to a regular decision.   

133.  Lucas Byrd (#7, 20-3) versus Kyle Burwick (#67, 10-4)

Lucas Byrd just keeps on keeping on, man. He will face Kyle Burwick again for the fourth time. He has beaten him by the scores of 5-2, 5-0 and 16-5. That major decision was the last time they met in the ILLINI-Wisconsin dual. 

Wrestlestat.com had Boo Dryden in the lineup for this dual, and it gave Lucas a major decision. When I switched it to Burwick, it gave only a decision. That leveled up their prediction from an ILLINI win to a 15-15 tie. 

Burwick was just given his release by Wisconsin, and he jumped into the starting lineup immediately. Unfortunately for him, he's 0-4 in B1G duals thus far, losing to Aaron Nagao (SV), Chris Cannon (1-6), Brody Teske (2-5) and Taylor LaMont (0-2). 

Bono caused a stink for the Badgers trading in the wrestlestat.com #67 wrestler for the #60 guy. Bad decision. PREDICTION: This matchup straddles both sides of the major decision line. 

141.  Danny Pucino (#8, 13-6) versus Brock Hardy (#3, 20-3)

Danny will have another tough wrestler this weekend with Hardy. Last time out, I think he got enamored with how Parker Filius beat Jake Bergeland and tried the same thing. That ended up with four nearfall against him, and so what was he to do? He tried it again. 

If it worked, he could've pinned Bergeland. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a 7-4 win for the Cornhusker over the ILLINI. Pucino is 4-2 against common opponents; Hardy is 5-1. 

In thirty-six college matches, the Nebraska kid has only lost six. Before losing a close one to Real Woods, he was on a seventeen-match win streak. PREDICTION: Nebraska by decision. 

149.  Jake Harrier (#195, 4-12) versus Dayne Morton (#38, 5-9)

I'm not exactly sure why Morton has a lofty #38 ranking at wrestlestat.com. He has a surprising 5-4 win over Minnesota's Michael Blockhus and a close 2-4 loss to Yahya Thomas, but that's it. He has head-scratching losses and spent three years wrestling DII, where he never made the championships. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts that Kevon Davenport (#67, 6-8) would beat him, but it gives the nod to him if he wrestles Harrier. In fact, I had to change the algorithm model to show Harrier wrestling, and that changed the team final score to an 18-15 win for Nebraska.

I would think that Davenport would want in on this match, but where has he been? He transferred from Lincoln. PREDICTION: Decision for Nebraska. 

157.  Mikey Carr (#17, 3-0) versus Peyton Robb (#1, 19-0)

Peyton Robb has had his perfect season so far. Now he gets to try his hand against Mikey Carr. They've never met before, of course, and were three weight classes apart for some time. 

Robb has beaten #7 Ed Scott (x2), #5 Jared Frank, #11 Kendall Coleman, #18 Brayton Lee, #15 Trevor Chumbley and #16 Cobe Siebrecht. The latter is an opponent that Carr has faced this year. 

Mikey beat the Hawkeye 12-7, while Robb beat him 7-2. Both five-point decisions. This will be a chance for Carr to measure himself against not only an elite 157er, but also a very big one.  

Last year, the Cornhusker beat the ILLINI's Joe Roberts by one point in the dual, then by four points at the Big Ten tournament. He went on to AA (4th) for the first time last season. 

If Carr must attend to Medical School business, the ILLINI will wrestle Anthony Federico (#104, 5-10). PREDICTION: Nebraska decision; against Anthony Federico, a major.

165.  Danny Braunagel (#19, 17-7) versus Bubba Watson (#40, 9-10)

The ILLINI has the head-to-head win here with a dual win last year that became a 12-2 major after Brawny poured on some back points. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the ILLINI in this matchup. 

Watson was a national qualifier last season, and he even won a match there. Most of his ten losses this season are to top guys, so we can expect a good go here. 

Brawny got the "L" against Minnesota, but he actually looked better than he has in a couple of weeks. Danny is 10-13 against common opposition, but Bubba is 6-12. PREDICTION: ILLINI decision. 

174.  Edmond Ruth (#11, 22-2) versus Michael Labriola (#2, 20-0)

Here we have wrestlestat.com predicting a win for the ILLINI wunderkind. Interesting. I want to believe. Labriola is a four-time All American finishing 6, Covid AA, 3, 7. He has a win over Mekhi Lewis this season. 

Ruth is 8-2 against common opponents. The Cornhusker has a 17-1 record against the same guys. 

Labriola works hard during his matches, but he actually does it pretty conservatively against elite wrestlers. Edmond is known to do the same. Love me some Ruthless, but--PREDICTION: Nebraska decision.

184.  Dylan Connell (#22, 16-11) versus Lenny Pinto (#10, 14-7)

I thought Dylan looked really good in the last dual against a very hot wrestler in Isaiah Salazar from Minnesota. Although the Gopher appeared to be super-muscled, Dylan held his own. That was a good sign for his future. It also seemed like Connell has added some height. Is that so? 

He will face another strong fellow in Pinto, another redshirt Freshman. The Cornhusker made a name for himself by beating Intermat-ranked #9 Trey Munoz of Oregon State at Cliff Keen, then majored Campbell's Caleb Hopkins in a dual. Big Brawny was one point away from majoring Hopkins in last year's NCAA tournament. 

Like Pinto, Connell has had close losses to Abe Assad and Minnesota's Salazar. 

Currently, Connell and his Cornhusker foe are ranked #25 and #16 by Intermat. Perhaps most importantly, this match will go a long, long way to determining post-season seeding. Connell seems to be learning and improving every week, so even though wrestlestat.com predicts a one-point win for the Husker, PREDICTION: One-point win for ILLINI.

197.  Zac Braunagel (#12, 19-3) versus Silas Allred (#24, 18-5)

This is another potentially close match in the dual. Allred is in his third year on the Cornhusker team, having sat behind ILLINOIS schoolboy Eric Schultz for two seasons. 

He has some very good wins this season, including #28 Michial Foy, #25 Gavin Hoffman, #8 Owen Pentz and #19 Braxton Amos. The latter match, his most recent, involved a wounded Badger who started limping noticeably in the first period. 

The Brawlnagel is #10 in the Intermat rankings, while Allred is #20. To keep that #1, #2 or #3 seed in the B1G tournament, the Biggest Braunagel will need this one. He's 6-0 in conference duals so far this season. (Max Dean is 4-0, and we know Jacob Warner has a couple of losses). 

PREDICTION: ILLINI decision. 

285.  Matt Wroblewski (#106, 10-13) versus Cale Davidson (#53, 9-13)

This is make or break time for WroboCop. He is 0-6 in Conference duals, while Cale Davidson is 1-3. The Cornhusker's only win was against Garrett Joles of Minnesota, who has two conference wins and just beat Wroblewski. 

So, unless the ILLINI wants to face the #3 seed in the first round of the B1G tournament, he needs to beat Davidson or his other weekend opponent, Ryan Vasbinder of Michigan State, who is 1-5 in conference. 

Davidson is a strong and wide-shouldered kid who will outweight Wroblewski, but not by much. He just has a thicker chest and legs. The Cornhusker is aggressive and will shoot in low singles and doubles and can scramble. This has gotten him into loads of trouble against the better heavyweights, but he uses his strength and aggressiveness to bully the weaker ones. 

Davidson has a worse record than Wroblewski, but he's also wrestled a noticeably harder schedule. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point Nebraska win here, and that sounds about right. PREDICTION: Cornhuskers by one. 

WHO:  Michigan State University

WHAT:  Road Dual 

WHERE:  East Lansing, Michigan

WHEN:  Sunday, February 5 at 1:00 PM (Central)

WHY:  Defeat Sparta!

TICKETS:  Public $5; Youth/Seniors #3

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

A DAY IN HISTORY

It is Sunday, January 22, 2012.

In games decided by three points, the Patriots beat the Ravens for the AFC Championship, while the Giants edge the 49ers in overtime to win the NFC. Rihanna tops the charts with her hit We Found Love. 

At the box office, Underworld: Awakening pulls in a paltry five million dollars to lead a crap weekend at movie theaters in America. Joe Paterno dies. The voice of the robot from Lost in Space dies.

Everything basically sucks ... 

... except for the ILLINI Wrestling team! Behind wins from Jesse Delgado (major), B.J. Futrell (pinfall), Daryl Thomas (major), Conrad Polz, Mario Gonzalez and an upset from Pat Walker over #10 heavyweight Mike McClure, the good guys prevail 26-13. Here is the box score for that dual:

#6 Illinois 26, Michigan State 13

125 - No. 5 Jesse Delgado (ILL) maj. dec. Eric Olanowski, 15-6
133 - No. 5 B.J. Futrell (ILL) pinned Terry Turner, 1:37
141 - Daryl Thomas (ILL) maj. dec. Brian Gibbs, 24-10
149 - Dan Osterman pinned No. 12 Eric Terrazas (ILL), :30
157 - No. 13 Anthony Jones maj. dec. Jackson Morse (ILL), 16-6
165 - No. 10 Conrad Polz (ILL) dec. David Cheza, 9-7
174 - Curran Jacobs (ILL) dec. No. 10 Jordan Blanton, 7-3
184 - Tony Dallago (ILL) dec. Ian Hinton, 9-3
197 - No. 16 Mario Gonzalez (ILL) dec. Nick McDiarmid, 13-6
HWT - Pat Walker (ILL) dec. No. 10 Mike McClure, 3-1 SV13

THE WRESTLERS

125.  Maximo Renteria (#88, 3-9) versus Tristan Lujan (#51, 14-7)

LEG RIDER! LEG RIDER! Be ready against this fellow to catch that first leg coming in or move immediately off the whistle. Lujan would ride with both legs in, parallel, for seven minutes if he could.

This will be a matchup between a two-time Cali state champ and a three-time (Covid stopped the fourth) Cali state champ. 

Their records against common opponents are similar, but Lujan has the much better record, so wrestlestat.com is predicting a 9-3 win for him. 

The Spartan has a full year jump start on Maximo, so he's got an experience edge. He finished 13-13 last season and did not go to the NCAA tournament. 

At one point in the season, Lujan was 14-1 (against a weak schedule) but in his last six B1G duals, he's 0-6, including a loss to PSU's Gary Steen. 

This will be an opportune time for Maximo to get his head in the game because he's on a seven-match losing streak and can beat this guy. PREDICTION: MSU by decision. 

133.  Lucas Byrd (#7, 20-3) versus Rayvon Foley (#20, 11-6)

Lucas Byrd and Rayvon Foley met in the Big Ten tournament last year with the ILLINI picking up the 5-2 win. That's been their only meeting. 

Foley is a four-time national qualifier, and he finished seventh in 2019 at 125. Since then, he's been injured multiple times and moved up to 133. 

He hasn't been the same. 

Wrestlestat.com is prognosticating a 10-3 victory for Byrd. If the dual starts at an appropriate weight, and if the ILLINI can build up a lead, you might see Kole Brower (#48, 5-3) here, as he's been ready to go at the home and away duals. 

PREDICTION: Byrd is the Wyrd! 

141.  Danny Pucino (#8, 13-6) versus Jordan Hamdan (#71, 20-10)

Hamdan is a tricky little wrestler with a glorious high school career. Unfortunately, at MSU he's been behind Foley his whole career, and now the kid is bumped up to 141 to get in the lineup. 

I meant it when I said he was "little." 

Hamdan is 1-5 in B1G duals this year and coming off of a Dylan D'Emilio pin. You can expect the Spartan to be quick, but not too strong (compared to other B1G 141ers), so Pucino won't necessarily need to rely on his bag of tricks here. 

Danny is 3-1 versus the same guys who have given Hamdan a 1-3 record. The algorithm calls for a major decision for the ILLINI. PREDICTION: Decision for the Orange and Blue! 

149.  Jake Harrier (#195, 4-12) versus Peyton Omania (#89, 13-8)

The wrestlestat.com program flips the script depending on who you put in the lineup for the ILLINI. They give Kevon Davenport (#67, 6-8) a win over Omania, but take that back and give the "W" to the Spartan if Harrier starts. 

This is another match where you hope that if he's ready, Davenport can make it to Michigan to wrestle in this one. He was a 4xer in that state and justifiably proud of that fact. 

Wrestlestat.com goes so far as to give Omania a major against Harrier, and I'm not buying that. PREDICTION: Tossup if Davenport goes, decision for MSU if Harrier is the one. 

157.  Mikey Carr (#16, 3-0) versus Chase Saldate (#17, 19-4)

Saldate is a two-time NCAA qualifier and is having his best year yet at 19-4. That record includes a 6-0 conference mark with wins over OSU's Paddy Gallagher, Minnesota's Brayton Lee and Michigan's Will Lewan. 

Pretty impressive stuff. 

But Mikey Carr is Mikey Carr, and that means good things for ILLINI fans. If he can make this road trip, he'll be favored by a point (6-5) against Saldate. My personal belief is that the winner of this match will score more than six points. 

If Carr has Medical School obligations, that would mean Anthony Federico (#104, 5-10) would get the start, and wrestlestat.com predicts a major for MSU in that event. I'm not buying that, as Saldate isn't big enough to push Federico around like that. PREDICTION: Decision for Carr; decision for Saldate if Federico wrestles. 

165.  Danny Braunagel (#19, 17-7) versus Caleb Fish (#26, 21-6)

Danny Braunagel will have a tough match against Bubba Watson on Friday, then have to heal up and get ready for a tough match against MSU's Caleb Fish on Sunday. 

Wins in these two matches would go a long way to solidifying a good seed in the post season. 

The problem is that Fish can concentrate solely on Little Brawny, while the ILLINI has to prepare for and scout two opponents. That's on top of having to go on the road while his second opponent sleeps in his own bed. 

Fish qualified for the Big Dance last year with a 22-14 record. He lost his first two there. Although this is his third year in college and second year starting for MSU, he has never faced a Brawlnagel. 

Even in a loss at Minnesota in his last dual, the Brawlnagel showed a spark that he'd been missing for a couple of weeks. So, I'm going to ride with wrestlestat.com on this one. PREDICTION: ILLINI decision. 

174.  Edmond Ruth (#11, 22-2) versus Ceasar Garza (#72, 13-8)

Unfortunately, it is likely that Edmond will be on his first collegiate two-match losing streak when he faces Garza. This will be a good time for Edmond to regain his confidence. 

Garza is 13-8, but like all of the Spartans, there are multiple wins over non-D1 wrestlers in that record. Furthermore, this MSU kid is now 1-5 in B1G duals, losing in his last match to the Ohio State backup.

Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the ILLINI. I expect a much bigger win. PREDICTION: ILLINI by decision, possible major. 

184.  Dylan Connell (#22, 16-11) versus Layne Malczewski (#13, 18-3)

Malczewski is the Pucino Spartan, full of Loki tricks and turns. He won't beat you with muscle, but with technique and tricks. 

It seems like forever ago, but the Spartan split matches with the ILLINI's Joey Gunther during the 2020 season. So, he's a wily veteran by now. 

This may be the best pure wrestling match during the dual (although Byrd/Foley and Carr/Saldate and Brawlnagel/Caffey might lay claim), but in terms of interesting and pure technique, it should be right up there. 

Wrestlestat.com sees a one-point win for MSU, and although Connell continues to amaze and improve, I will go with that. PREDICTION: Spartan decision.

197.  Zac Braunagel (#12, 19-3) versus Cameron Caffey (#16, 15-3)

ILLINOIS schoolboy battle! 

Caffey is a three-time Round of 12-or-16er, and he was a Covid All American with a 27-7 record that year. We've already seen these folks tussle three times at 184 with Caffey holding the 2-1 edge. 

It is Braunagel who is on the hot streak now, though, so perhaps the record evens up? 

The Spartan is 3-2 in B1G duals, so this will be an important match for seeding purposes. That's especially true with Intermat ranking Zac at #10 and Cameron at #14. 

I watched Caffey's last match, a 2-3 loss to Gavin Hoffman, and thought that he looked a little gimpy. Hopefully, both of these beasts are hungry and ready to go on Sunday! 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 6-5 win for the Spartan. I'm going the other way. PREDICTION: 6-5 win for the Brawlnagel. 

285.  Matt Wroblewski (#106, 10-13) versus Ryan Vasbinder (#67, 14-10)

Vasbinder is a hulking mass of a human. This is his sixth year in college, but he spent the first four at McKendree College were he placed seventh and won a national championship. 

He's been very successful against the ILLINI with a 4-1 record. The only ILLINOIS guy to beat him was Andre Lee. (Yup, he goes way back). 

This will be another important seeding (and will you make the NCAA tournament) match for both wrestlers. WroboCop has now become a long shot, while Vasbinder still has a shot. PREDICTION: MSU by decision. 

CONCLUSION

There were a lot of close matches on paper last weekend between ILLINOIS and Minnesota. The Gophers came out super-aggressive and made those matches un-close. The ILLINI will need to defend their home mat that way against Nebraska. 

If the Gopher coaching staff saw the ILLINI as lackadaisical at the start of matches and instructed their wrestlers to take advantage of it, you can bet the Huskers will as well. 

Against Nebraska, the ILLINI will need a Carr win over the #1 wrestler in the country and a Wroblewski win. That's a bit of a stretch that I might have gone with if Minnesota hadn't happened. My money--if I had any--would be on Nebraska winning six matches and the dual. 

After that, the ILLINI will need to patch up any cuts and ice any bruises for the long trip to East Lansing. Again, there are a lot of close matches on paper. 

At least against the Spartans, I don't see the ILLINI outweighed and out-muscled like they were against the Gophers. This one, I think, the ILLINI take. 

SPECIAL RECRUIT NEWS

You gotta love this from a kid going places: