Preview of ILLINI versus Minnesota

WHO:  Minnesota Golden Gophers

WHAT:  Dual

WHERE:  1925 University Ave SE, Maturi Pavilion, Minneapolis, Minnesota

WHEN:  Saturday, January 28 at 1:00 pm (Central)

WHY:  Destroy the Gophers! 

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

TICKETS:  $10 Youth, $10 Senior, $15 Public

A DAY IN HISTORY

It is Friday, February 12, 2016. 

The Billboard charts are full of unpleasant music. For example, Justin Bieber holds the numbers one and two spots with his hits, Love Yourself and Sorry. At the movies, your day is much better because Deadpool opens in 3,558 theaters and makes an incredible $47,335,592 that night. Assassin's Creed: Chronicles was released three days ago, and your kid brother has been playing it for the last 72 hours straight. 

The people having the best time, though, are at Huff Hall for the ILLINI dual with Minnesota. It's Senior Night, and befittingly, Senior Jeff Koepke seals a dual win for the good guys. Other winners for ILLINOIS include Francis Edelen, Zane Richards (tech), IMAR (major), and Steven Rodrigues (major). This was how that dual looks on paper:

#12 Illinois 19, #16 Minnesota 16 (Full Play-By-Play: http://bit.ly/1KgaCFs)

197: #3 Brett Pfarr (MINN) dec. Emery Parker (ILL), 10-5 | 0-3

HWT: #10 Michael Kroells (MINN) major dec. #20 Brooks Black (ILL),8-0 | 0-7

125: Francis Edelen (ILL) dec. Skyler Petry (MINN), 3-2 | 3-7

133: #2 Zane Richards (ILL) tech fall Sam Brancale, 17-2 (MINN) | 8-7

141: #9 Tommy Thorn dec. Mousa Jodeh (ILL), 6-2 | 8-10

149: #14 Jake Short dec. Kyle Langenderfer (ILL), 8-3 | 8-13

157: #2 Isaiah Martinez (ILL) major dec. Brandon Kingsley (MINN), 15-6 |12-13

165: #4 Steven Rodrigues (ILL) major dec. Brandon Krone (MINN),21-8 |16-13

174: Nick Wanzek (MINN) dec. #2 Zac Brunson (ILL), 13-10 | 16-16

184: #15 Jeff Koepke (ILL) dec. Chris Pfarr (MINN), 8-4 | 19-16

THE BIG TEN NETWORK

The dual is scheduled for 1pm (Central) on BTN. It is the only wrestling match scheduled for Saturday, so you can expect to see and hear from the network's dream team of Gibbons and Johnson, as Sparks may be in the studio whipping up some content. 

The important news is that there's a stupid and completely inconsequential basketball game between Northwestern and Minnesota scheduled at 11am (Central), right before the dual. Choose your TIVO options wisely. 

 

THE TEAMS 

The ILLINI are now 5-4 in duals. They got there by starting off the season with a win over Buffalo (28-9), then lost to NC State (12-27), whupped Chattanooga (32-9), then in the same afternoon, got whupped themselves by Pitt (6-30). After a nice showing at the Midlands, the ILLINI gave Iowa a scare (19-25), beat Wisconsin (18-17) and Purdue (31-9), lost a controversial match with Northwestern (17-17), and, most recently, beat Maryland (29-11). 

Minnesota has a very nice 10-2 record that includes a win over Oklahoma State. Here's what they've done this season: Beat Binghamton (19-15), South Dakota State (19-16), Augustana (37-4), Oklahoma State (18-12), North Dakota State (24-9), Lindenwood (48-6), Cal Poly (22-12), had consecutive losses on the road to Northwestern (11-18) and Nebraska (9-21), then beat Michigan State (21-11), Indiana (28-6) and Purdue (20-12). 

Since Purdue is a pretty recent and common opponent, let's look at how Minnesota did against the Boilermakers:

#11 MINNESOTA (20), PURDUE (12)

January 22, 2023 | Maturi Pavilion | Minneapolis, MN | Attendance: 3,278

125: #10 Matt Ramos (PUR) dec. #5 Patrick McKee (MINN), 4-2
133: Jake Gliva (MINN) dec. Dustin Norris (PUR), 4-2
141: #15 Parker Filius (PUR) dec. #11 Jake Bergeland (MINN), 5-2
149: #16 Michael Blockhus (MINN) dec. Jaden Reynolds (PUR), 13-4
157: #3 Kendall Coleman (PUR) dec. #16 Brayton Lee (MINN), 5-2
165: #26 Andrew Sparks (MINN) dec. Stoney Buell (PUR), 4-0
174: #15 Bailee O'Reilly (MINN) dec. Cooper Noehre (PUR), 8-3
184: #11 Isaiah Salazar (MINN) dec. Ben Vanadia (PUR), 10-3
197: #27 Michial Foy (MINN) maj. dec. Hayden Filipovich (PUR), 13-5
HWT: Hayden Copass (PUR) dec. #27 Garrett Joles (MINN), 5-3

THE WRESTLERS

125.  Maximo Renteria (#82, 3-8) versus Patrick McKee (#4, 9-2)

McKee has been nails at the NCAA tournament the last two years. He's the Gopher's Lucas Byrd. During the regular season, though, he has been less sharp, losing seven last year, six the year before and eight the year before that. In other words, he can take some unexpected losses during conference. 

Still, he will be the huge favorite in this match with wrestlestat.com calling for a major decision. Maximo is 1-8 against common opponents, while the Gopher is 13-7. Last year as a true Freshman, the ILLINI went to the UNI Open and McKee pinned him. I believe Renteria was still recovering his wind from Covid at the time. 

I expect Maximo to start getting McKee-like results but perhaps not yet. PREDICTION: Minnesota is the huge favorite; regular decision. 

133.  Lucas Byrd (#7, 19-3) versus Aaron Nagao (#15, 14-3)

The ILLINI will return the favor and send out a huge favorite against Nagao, who's having a nice season himself. You see, I would consider Byrd to be a massive favorite over Nagao, but in the last two duals this season, it has been Jake Gliva (#83, 10-5), who's suited up for the Gophers. 

Gliva has started for Minnesota in conference duals in two preceding years. He even lost to Byrd 3-8 last season. The Gopher would go on to earn an NCAA bid but lose two straight and finish up with a 13-15 record. 

I would not expect the Minnesota brain trust to send out an injured or recovering Nagao to face the ILLINI two-time All American. Lucas is 13-0 versus common opponents with Nagao, who is 4-3. Wrestlestat.com predicts only a two-point win for Byrd, but given what we know, and given scouting reports from his teammate from Cali, I expect it would be much worse. 

The wrestlestat.com algorithm favors the ILLINI by major if he faces the backup Gopher. Lucas is 21-7 against the same guys who have a 4-13 record versus Gliva. PREDICTION: ILLINOIS is the heavy favorite, regular decision against Nagao, possible major against Gliva.

Below, you'll find a super cool video showing Maximo Renteria beating Nagao for one of his Cali state championships. You get a takedown-fest and a tilt-fest, and then you get to see Maximo hug his coaches, ILLINI alums Troy Tirapelle and Gabe Flores. Love this! 

141.  Danny Pucino (#8, 13-5) versus Jake Bergeland (#11, 11-6)

It must be sweet to be a predicted winner over a returning All American in your first full year in the starting lineup. That's where Danny Pucino finds himself with wrestlestat.com foreseeing an 8-5 decision for the ILLINI.  

Bergeland is a tall and big 141er, who is made for tournaments. He can rehydrate after his first-round match and outweigh and out-muscle his opponents. He's a pretty meat and potatoes wrestler, so it will be a contrast of styles with Pucino's bottomless bag of tricks; strength versus speed. 

I watched the Gopher's recent loss to Parker Filius of Purdue, and he showed a nice ankle pick and a heavy forward-pressure ride. But it was Filius who used some trickeration to win, pulling over his head a high-riding Bergeland for a reversal and near fall. 

Pucino is 5-0 against common opponents; Bergeland is 5-3 with losses to Tal-Shahar, D'Emilio and Filius. If he can take down Cole Matthews, by gum, Danny Pucino can take down Jake Bergeland. I'm riding with wrestlestat.com here and predicting that the ILLINI gets a win over an All American. PREDICTION: ILLINI decision. 

149.  Jake Harrier (#189, 4-11) versus Michael Blockhus (#29, 12-3)

Blockhus is a three-time national qualifier and fourth-year starter for Minnesota, and before that, Northern Iowa. He was also the victim of one of my favorite matches in last year's dual, as he had Christian Kanzler's leg up, and then the now-ILLINI volunteer assistant coach, whipped out what folks in Judo call a Tomoe nage. Kanzler went on to win the bout 13-8. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a decision win for Minnesota if Blockhus faces Kevon Davenport (#68, 6-8). Against Jake Harrier, who has wrestled in all the duals since Iowa, the algorithm is showing a major decision for the bad guys. 

The Gopher is sometimes the whipping boy of the Minnesota forum, as they've seen him beat folks like Yahya Thomas, Legend Lamer and Oklahoma State's new sensation, Alex Voinovich, then go on a four-match losing streak (against really good wrestlers) in the B1G. 

I have no clue about Davenport's circumstances. So, unless a Tomoe nage, or something similar, makes an unexpected but welcome appearance in this match, I can see bonus here for Minnesota. Harrier is game, but he'll be quite under-sized against the Gopher. PREDICTION: Minnesota heavy favorite; possible bonus point. 

157.  Mikey Carr (#19, 2-0) versus Brayton Lee (#18, 4-6)

You and I have talked about this already, but to reiterate, Coach Poeta and Mikey Carr have a harrowing calculus to make involving how much Carr should wrestle in the regular season. I'm not sure how many matches are necessary for a Coach's Ranking, a winning percentage or RPI this year. It was eight for two of them (which is all you need for an at-large selection) last season, but fifteen for the third (I believe that was RPI). 

And that is just the first part of this fiendishly difficult equation, as the young man has to juggle working out, wrestling on the big stage, and going to medical school. 

So, we could see Anthony Federico (#102, 5-10) here. Federico has wrestled like a little demon out there, even though he started the season at 149. He would be over-matched against Lee, though, and, in fact, wrestlestat.com is giving Lee a one-point win over Carr, and a major over Federico.

That's even though the Gopher has a dismal 4-6 record. The fact is that the former All American has been beset by injuries, last year and during this season, and he's not lost to anybody rated below #19 on wrestlestat.com. In other words, he's a wounded warrior and has had a tough schedule. Still, he only beat #96 Luka Wick by one point six weeks ago. (Wick beat Federico 3-1 at the Tiger Style Invite). 

Brayton Lee did wrestle (and lose to Kendall Coleman) in the Gopher's last dual, but I'm gonna have to be a little wishy-washy here. There are simply too many variables at play. PREDICTION: Carr wins by decision; Federico loses by decision. 

165.  Danny Braunagel (#16, 17-6) versus Andrew Sparks (#38, 13-7)

If both of these battle-worn veterans show up--and they both wrestled in their team's last dual--it could be another nail-biter. Wrestlestat.com is calling for a one-point win for the good guy. The two have never met before. 

Like Brayton Lee, Sparks had an injury last year that slowed his development. He was fire as a true Freshman two years ago earning an NCAA bid. He teched Luke Odom in the dual that year. 

A major reason for Sparks' poor record this year is that he's wrestled Michael Caliendo three times and is 0-3. He did have a nice 6-1 win over Nebraska's Bubba Wilson recently, and he beat Purdue's Stoney Buell 4-0. 

For his part, Little Brawny has seemed unlike himself the last three or so duals. He's won his share of them, which is what counts, but I'm sure his fans want to see him fully recovered from whatever ails him. PREDICTION: This is probably a toss-up, but we'll go with a Brawlnagel decision. 

174.  Edmond Ruth (#11, 22-1) versus Bailee O'Reilly (#15, 12-3)

The Gopher is a very solid wrestler who doesn't get talked about as much as he should be talked about. But that goes the same with Edmond Ruth. This is O'Reilly's sixth year at Minnesota, third year starting, and he is a two-time NCAA qualifier. His only losses this year are to elite wrestlers Mikey Labriola (3-5), Oklahoma State's #4 Dustin Plott (5-10) and Missouri's Peyton Mocco (3-9). 

Yet, O'Reilly's best win this year, and over his entire career, is a one-point decision over Indiana's #19 Donnell Washington two dual's ago. He's a big musclehead who will push with a collar tie but also likes to shoot from space, though he has a hard time defending his legs against quicker wrestlers. A massive Spencer Lee® brand leg brace may slow him down. As long as you avoid his switch, you can ride him.

This will be a big test for Edmond Ruth in terms of dealing with a true musclehead. The Gopher has to be cutting a lot of weight, and that will make him dangerous in the late rounds of a tournament, but less dangerous in a dual. PREDICTION: Ruthless by decision.  

184.  Dylan Connell (#22, 16-10) versus Isaiah Salazar (#11, 13-1)

If O'Reilly and Ruth have been inexplicably off everybody's radar, Salazar isn't far behind. He qualified for the Big Dance last year and sports a sterling 13-1 record this season. He's beaten #13 Malczewski of Michigan State, #10 Pinto of Nebraska and #14 Wittlake of Okie State. 

I also recall him being the biggest fellow Zac Braunagel ever matched up with at 184, even bigger than Purdue's Max Lyon. The Brawlnagel ended up splitting with Salazar last year, losing in the dual (4-8), but revenging that loss at the B1G tournament (9-6). 

This will be a contrast in styles as the Gopher musclehead will have to deal with the pure technique of Dylan Connell. If any Gopher coach or wrestler is reading this, the secret to beating Connell is to defeat his gramby off the bottom start. 

He always does it. 

They're both 3-1 against common opponents, but the three wins were against popsicles. They both lost to Trent Hidlay, and the Gopher's defeat was by two points, while Connell gave up the tech. 

Weight could be a factor here, as Connell likely has a much easier time hitting 184 than his Gopher foe. That should be an ILLINI advantage, but especially if the dual starts at or right before this weight. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts an 8-4 win for Minnesota here. This will be a true test for Dylan against a muscly veteran who has loads of B1G experience. PREDICTION: Minnesota by decision, possibly a bonus point. 

197.  Zac Braunagel (#13, 18-3) versus Michial Foy (#29, 12-6)

The ILLINI will need to count on the hot Brawlnagel to pull out a win here. There looks to be a lot of close matches at this dual! Wrestlestat.com is going with a two-point win for ILLINOIS. Brawny is 12-5 against common opposition, while his opponent is a more modest 4-9. 

Last season, Foy lost the ninth-place B1G tournament match but was selected as an at-large participant. He then went 0-2 at the NCAAs. He did beat WroboCop in the dual by one point. I recall him being very athletic, with a frame that could've added a few pounds. 

That might explain why the Gophers seem to have held a wrestle-off between Salazar and Foy for the 184 spot at the Bison Open at the beginning of the year. Foy lost to his teammate by five. PREDICTION: Decision for the Brawlnagel. 

285.  Matt Wroblewski (#103, 10-12) versus Garrett Joles (#63, 10-10)

This is the point in the award-winning preview when I come to blows with Andre at wrestlestat.com. His program is giving Joles a win by five points. I don't see it. WroboCop beat Joles in their only meeting at 197 two years ago. 

Moreover, Joles started the year at 197, and had been weighing in around 207 or 210 at heavyweight. The ILLINI, on the other hand, knew he was bumping up during the offseason and has been at least as high as 235. 

It takes a lot of Fiesta Cafe burritos to feed this horse.

I do expect some points to be scored here, as both of these guys have a dance card filled with fatties under who they don't want to get trapped. So, I think we see some actual shots from space with malicious intent. 

I will start off by predicting that the ILLINI works on following Gramby rolls this week, and when Joles tries his--Surprise! PREDICTION: Decision for WroboCop. 

CONCLUSION

Minnesota is always, always, always tough. Even during the Golden Age of ILLINI wrestling, the good guys could expect a battle against the inaptly named Gophers. I always remember them as excellent on top, and this was way before Backpack Lizak. This young team at ILLINOIS is really improving their mat game, so we shall see who takes the riding time points in this match. 

Wrestlestat.com is going with a 16-15 win for the Gophers. I expect that Aaron Nagao won't wrestle, and that could lead to a bonus point for the ILLINI at 133. If Mikey Carr makes the trip, I expect that he'll have a very good shot to beat the unfortunate Brayton Lee, who can't seem to catch a break this year. 

Wrestlestat.com also picks Garrett Joles to beat Matt Wroblewski, even though WroboCop is 1-0 in their only head-to-head matchup. In that match, Joles was bigger and stronger, but seemed to be much less coordinated than his ILLINI opponent. Now, Matt only won in SV, but I think he wins the takedown battle here and comes back to Champaign as the hero. 

Finally, some posters from past duals with Minnesota: