ILLINI Wrestling Preview: Wisconsin

The task becomes slightly easier for the good guys after battling #2 Iowa in Carver Hawkeye Arena on Friday night. The ILLINI return home and face the #13 Wisconsin Badgers at State Farm Center on Sunday afternoon. Nothing is easy for Wisconsin coach Chris Bono, though, as the authorities are closing in on him:

This is not meant as some type of shady negative recruiting or rumor-mongering. On the contrary, this is simply me asking questions. Important newsworthy questions, such as: Why hasn't Wisconsin signed the Kyle Burwick NPO? 

 

WHAT:  ILLINI Dual with Wisconsin

WHEN:  Sunday, January 8, 2023 @ 3:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  State Farm Center, Champaign, ILLINOIS

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

SPECIAL:  Alumni Night / Alumni Match

TICKETS:  FREE ADMISSION

A DAY IN HISTORY

It was February 7, 2010, a Sunday.

Former ILLINI football players Pierre Thomas and Danny Clark help the New Orleans Saints beat the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV that day. The number one song in the country is Tik Tok by Ke$ha, while Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga are numbers two and three on the charts. 

BioShock 2 is released that day, and all the cool kids want it. The slightly less cool kids buy the just-released Super Monkey Ball: Step and Roll for Wii. Still tops at the box office, Avatar rakes in another five million dollars that day.

In Champaign, ILLINOIS, the future brain trust of the Relentless Training Center and the Marian Central Catholic Wrestling Hurricanes lead the ILLINI to an upset victory over one of the best Badger teams in decades. Jordan Blanton snatches a bonus point, and in the penultimate match, Ryan Prater grabs the winning bonus point as the #21 ILLINI beat the #13 Wisconsin Badgers 19-18 in Huff Hall, Champaign, ILLINOIS, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, baby! 

Here's how that dual went down on Sunday, February 7, 2010:

#21 Illinois 19, #13 Wisconsin 18

157: Clint Arlis (ILL) tech. fall Jesse Hintz (WIS), 18-3 (7:00) (5-0)
165: #1 Andrew Howe (WIS) maj. dec Conrad Polz (ILL), 14-6 (5-4)
174: #14 Jordan Blanton (ILL) maj. dec. Brendan Ard (WIS), 14-4 (9-4)
184: #2 John Dergo (ILL) dec. #16 Travis Rutt (WIS), 8-2 (12-4)
197: #8 Trevor Brandvold (WIS) dec. #14 Patrick Bond (ILL), 2-1 TB1 (12-7)
HWT: Eric Bugenhagen (WIS) dec. Pat Walker (ILL), 2-1 (12-10)
125: John Deneen (ILL) dec. Drew Hammen (WIS), 4-2 (15-10)
133: #7 Tyler Graff (WIS) tech. fall Daryl Thomas (ILL), 22-6 (4:27) (15-15)
141: #14 Ryan Prater (ILL) maj. dec. Cole Schmitt (WIS) 15-1 (19-15)
149: #5 Kyle Ruschell (WIS) dec. #19 Eric Terrazas (ILL), 9-5 (19-18)

WHY WE HATE WISCONSIN

Ninety percent of Wisconsin looks like the set of Friday the 13th. In the other ten percent--the urban areas--the beings look and sound like Canadians, but they're evil. Evil Canadians. 

[Editor's note: Hayden Halter and Braeden Scoles and their family and friends are obvious exceptions]

THE TEAMS 

The ILLINI will be busy Friday night in Iowa City facing off against the Hawkeyes. They recently had a successful and entertaining tournament at the Midlands. The question is whether the ILLINI will have wrestlers at 125 and 157 for this dual. The Orange and Blue are 2-2 on the year so far with wins over Buffalo (28-9) and Chattanooga (32-9) and losses to NC State (12-27) and Pitt (6-30). 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a win for the stinking Badgers by the score of 20-13. 

Wisconsin started off the season with convincing dual wins over Chattanooga (35-3) and Buffalo (31-6), then dropped a match to Iowa State (6-26). They won against Cornell (19-13), Princeton (38-3), Penn (27-9) and Drexel (37-3). That was a nice win over Cornell, so let's look at that:

Nov. 19, 2022 - #14 Wisconsin 19, #7 Cornell 13 (Ithaca, N.Y.)	WIS-COR
125: #9 Eric Barnett (WIS) over Brett Ungar (COR) (Dec 6-5)	3-0
133: #3 Vito Arujau (COR) over #18 Taylor LaMont (WIS) (MD 17-6)	3-4
141: #21 Vince Cornella (COR) over #18 Joseph Zargo (WIS) (Dec 4-1)	3-7
149: #3 Austin Gomez (WIS) over #1 Yianni Diakomihalis (COR) (Dec 9-3)	6-7
157: #16 Garrett Model (WIS) over Cole Handlovic (COR) (Dec 6-2)	9-7
165: #5 Dean Hamiti (WIS) over #8 Julian Ramirez (COR) (MD 14-4)	13-7
174: #9 Chris Foca (COR) over James Rowley (WIS) (Dec 6-3)	13-10
184: #7 Jonathan Loew (COR) over Tyler Dow (WIS) (Dec 10-3)	13-13
197: #21 Braxton Amos (WIS) over #20 Jacob Cardenas (COR) (Dec 2-0)	16-13
285: #12 Trent Hillger (WIS) over #9 Lewis Fernandes (COR) (Dec 5-2)	19-13
All rankings are Intermat for Nov. 15, 2022

THE WRESTLERS

125.  MAXIMO RENTERIA (#80, 3-3) vs. ERIC BARNETT (#3, 12-1).

The ILLINI had zero participants at this weight at the Midlands. If Maximo doesn't wrestle, other possibilities for the ILLINI include #56 Justin Cardani, if healthy, or giving #160 Sammie Hayes one of his freebies during a redshirt season. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a major for Barnett over Renteria, but only an 8-5 Badger win if Cardani wrestles. Cardani actually has a 3-1 win over Barnett, but that has been followed by two major decision losses. 

I remember that win and am willing to bet it occurred in part because Barnett had just weighed in for the dual. The other two matches, where the Badger won by major, occurred during the post-season. The chance of an upset for the ILLINI is if the dual starts at 125. 

133.  LUCAS BYRD (#6, 14-3) vs. TAYLOR LAMONT (#43, 6-6). 

This is an 8-4 win for the ILLINI according to wrestlestat.com's algorithm. LaMont has had a Round of 16, a Round of 12 and a 5th place finish at the NCAA tournament at 125. He's had a rocky start at 133, and now he gets a Big Ten schedule starting with RBY on Friday and then Lucas Byrd on Sunday. 

To be fair, he's wrestled a pretty strong schedule that has included Arujau (loss), Colaiocco twice (two losses), Julian Chlebove (loss) and Brayden Palmer of Chattanooga (two-point win). 

Given the scores in those matches, as well as LaMont's loss to the #80 wrestler from Brown at the Midlands, I think this is more likely a bonus point for the ILLINI than not. 

141.  DANNY PUCINO (#36, 8-5) vs. JOSEPH ZARGO (#35, 7-4). 

This fellow for Wisconsin is big and strong for 141, and he managed to beat Dylan Duncan twice last year, qualify for nationals, and yet finish with a somewhat lackluster 16-14 record. A tough pull might explain his career inconsistency, but an injury is why he finished 2-2 at Midlands. 

Will Zargo be a go at the dual? 

We'll know more on Friday if he goes up against #5 Beau Bartlett of Penn State. Looking at the Badger roster, they have three on the bench at this weight, but all three will lose to Pucino. In fact, even if Zargo wrestles, this will be a true toss-up swing match. Wrestlestat.com predicts a 9-8 win for Zargo. 

I'll go with a mild upset here, as Pucino beats  Zargo or his replacement. 

149.  KEVON DAVENPORT (#56, 6-7) vs. AUSTIN GOMEZ (#2, 6-1). 

Gomez did not compete at Midlands. I would expect that if he can lift his body up, he will want to wrestle at the State Farm Center, as he was an ILLINOIS schoolboy champ there. Still, his absence from the Midlands, even closer to home, has to be noted. 

The ILLINI had a surprise at Midlands at this weight as well, as only JAKE HARRIER (#186, 3-8) showed up for the Orange and Blue. We'll put Davenport as the starter until more information is available, as he has started the duals for ILLINOIS, and besides, I gave Harrier the start against Iowa. Ha!

If a healthy Gomez shows up, it could be fireworks against Davenport, as both have shown a willingness to go crazy with the upper body throws. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major, but somebody could get pinned here. 

If Gomez can't go, a healthy Davenport should beat either of Wisconsin's backups. The same goes for Harrier. 

157.  ANTHONY FEDERICO (#87, 5-7) vs. GARRETT MODEL.

My favorite memory of this Badger is a very good one: Eric Barone scoring at will against him early in the match, and then getting tired from scoring so much, and Model trying to come back, but always falling short. 

He was 0-4 against Barone. 

According to wrestlestat.com, the tables have turned. Ugh! Its algorithm is predicting close Badger decisions over Federico and LUKE ODOM (#160, 4-6). 

The ILLINI didn't bring a 157-pounder to Midlands, so who knows who will wrestle in the dual. One thing's for certain, you better be in good shape to wrestle Model. 

165.  DANNY BRAUNAGEL (#11, 15-3) vs. DEAN HAMITI (#5, 10-2).

I'm not sure what to make of this matchup. Last year, Hamiti put it on Little Brawny, winning two major decisions. I think Danny was injured during the two matches, though, while Hamiti was decidedly on his game. 

So far this year, it seems that the Brawlnagel has been on his game, and Hamiti just doesn't seem quite the same to me. For example, in the NWCA All Star match, the Badger appeared to be hampered by a minor injury. 

Or, I might be seeing things.

Both of them wrestled Quincy Monday of Princeton at the Midlands, and both lost; Hamiti by one, Brawny by two. Given last year's two major decision wins, wrestlestat.com is predicting a Wisconsin victory here, but by a 10-4 score. I can certainly see a tighter match with a healthy ILLINI in the circle. Brawny will need to protect his legs while laying on Hamiti's head, a difficult but not impossible task. 

174.  EDMOND RUTH (#13, 18-1) vs. JOSH OTTO (#77, 5-7). 

Did you know that Edmond Ruth has more wins so far this year than any wrestler at the weight besides Iowa State's Joel Devine? The Cyclone also has eighteen wins, but he adds six losses to his ledger. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a tighter match here than I would have thought, going with a 7-4 ILLINI win. 

I think the margin could be larger.

For example, Ruth beat two very good wrestlers in Nick Incontrera and Brody Conley by a combined score of 7-2 at the Midlands. At the same tournament, Josh Otto lost to the same individuals by a combined score of 2-15. 

I will predict a bonus point for the ILLINI. 

184.  DYLAN CONNELL (#23, 12-9) vs. TYLER DOW (#84, 4-6). 

Connell's fifth-place podium finish at the Midlands really helped his NCAA resume, and he jumped up in the wrestlestat.com rankings. He'll have a tough match with Abe Assad on Friday, but Dow has an even tougher match with Aaron Brooks the same day. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major for the young ILLINI up-and-comer. 

I think it will be a win for Dylan, but we'll see about the major. Tyler Dow does have a crappy 4-6 record, but every one of those losses was to someone ranked #47 or better, and with regard to Marcus Coleman (#4) and Jonathan Loew (#9), a lot better. 

I would say a five- or six-point win is more likely for the ILLINI than a major, and that, in turn, is more likely than a Badger win. 

197.  ZAC BRAUNAGEL (#17, 13-3) vs. BRAXTON AMOS (#20, 10-2). 

This will be your marque matchup of the night. 

It was the marque matchup of the Midlands, going to ultimate tie breaks, so it is an easy pick for the showcase of this dual. The ILLINI will almost certainly need this match to beat Wisconsin. Wrestlestat.com is already factoring in a 6-5 victory for Big Brawny. 

The transitive property also shows an edge to the ILLINI, as Zac is 4-2 against common opponents, while Amos is 1-3. 

I hope the refs in the match are looking for pouty club fists from the Badger when he starts to lose. Each one of those could be a concussion. 

Amos does have a nice 2-0 win over Jacob Cardenas of Cornell, as well as wins over Mac and Luke Stout. His lone loss on the season, besides the Midlands championship match with the Brawlnagel, was a 3-5 decision going to Yonger Bastida. 

For a huge 197-pounder, the Wisconsin kid was in very good shape, but not in good enough shape to beat the ILLINI, and that is who I predict will win. 

285.  MATT WROBLEWSKI (#83, 10-7) vs. TRENT HILGER (#13, 9-2). 

The three-time AA from Wisconsin is favored to win by a margin that is just short of a major decision. WroboCop will have to up his game to meet those expectations. 

Neither of the wrestlers had the Midlands they wanted. Wroblewski's was pretty much a disaster with a win over the #198 wrestler and losses to #98 and #37. 

Hilger's Midlands may have been more disastrous.

He did win three matches, but he also medical forfeited two matches. Was it HEW or an injury? I don't know. If he ducks against Greg Kerkvliet of Penn State on Friday, we should know. 

The best backup for Wisconsin is Peter Christensen, an ILLINOIS schoolboy, but he also medical forfeited out of the Midlands. So, who knows for sure. 

CONCLUSION

This dual will be in the world's most interesting insurance-branded building: The State Farm Center. There will be a lot of great Big Ten conference matches, and admission is free. Hopefully, the ILLINI will have a nice Sunday crowd. 

Also, the advertising for the dual indicates that there will be an Alumni Match associated with the event. Zane Richards versus who? IMAR versus who? Ermak, of course! We must see Ermak, and by God, BTN better show all of this! Who else might be involved?

Okay, time to lay it on the line instead of my usual weasel words. Here are the predictions:

125.  Wisconsin (possible major)

133.  ILLINI (major)

141.  Toss up (slight favorite: ILLINI)

149.  Wisconsin (major; but ILLINI if no Gomez)

157.  Wisconsin

165.  Wisconsin

174.  ILLINI (possible major)

184.  ILLINI 

197.  ILLINI (though this could be called a toss up)

285.  Wisconsin (if Hilger or Christensen have "healed")