Preview of Pitt & Chattanooga (Part Two--The Mocs)

WHAT: Triangular with Pitt & Chattanooga

WHEN: Saturday, December 3, 2022 (starting at 1pm Central)

WHERE:  State Farm Center 

WHY:  Hone Skills

TV/STREAMING: BTN+  (subscription service)

TICKETS:  FREE ADMISSION

PROMOTIONS:  Dementia Awareness Night

THE LAST CHATANOOGA DUAL

The ILLINI are 4-0 against the Mocs all time. That fourth win for ILLINOIS was less than a year ago with a surprise hero emerging for the Orange and Blue. Because of an injury to Matt Wroblewski, the ILLINI needed someone to step into the breech. 

The dual started at 125, and by the time the 165ers took the mat, Chattanooga was up 12-3 with only a win from Lucas Byrd to stem the tide of war. After decisions by both Braunagels and DJ Shannon, the battlefield beckoned to Nikita Nepomnyashchiy.

The dual score was 12-12 at the time.           

The veteran ILLINI jumped up in weight from 184 to 197 to face a wrestler with a 30-21 career mark. Nepo rose to the challenge and scored a major decision victory over his foe. Luke Luffman closed out the match with a decision. Here's the box score for that dual: 

No. 23 ILLINOIS vs. UT-Chattanooga

125: Gutierrez (UTC) over Cardani (ILL) (Dec 6-0)

133: Byrd (ILL) over Palmer (UTC) (Dec 13-10)

141: Valdes (UTC) over W. Rachal (ILL) (Dec 4-3)

149: Castillo (UTC) over Kanzler (ILL) (Dec 6-4)

157: Wichman (UTC) over Roberts (ILL) (Dec 6-1)

165: D. Braunagel (ILL) over Nicholson (UTC) (Dec 6-2)

174: Shannon (ILL) over Tarter (UTC) (Dec 3-1)

184: Z. Braunagel (ILL) over Waddell (UTC) (Dec 5-2)

197: Nepomnyashchiy (ILL) over Shell (UTC) (MD 10-2)

285: Luffman (ILL) over Walthall (UTC) (Dec 6-1)

This was Coach Mike Poeta's first win as head coach of the Fighting ILLINI. 

THE NEXT CHATTANOOGA DUAL

Wrestlestat.com predicts a 24-9 win for the good guys. Andre's algorithm has the ILLINI losing at 157, 174 and 184. We'll get to that in a bit, but first, a word from our sponsor, the Chattanooga Chamber of Commerce:

The ILLINI should be favored at 125, 133, 165, 197 and 285. They are slight favorites at 141 and 149. The Mocs have had different wrestlers in their lineups at 141, 149 and 165, so they might be going through, or they might've gone through, a rash of injuries or illnesses or both. 

Below you can see Little Brawny getting a huge takedown last year in the dual against Chattanooga's Drew Nicholson, the Southern Conference tournament's MVP. Since then, Nicholson has transferred to Virginia Tech and is starting for the Hokies. Credit to our friend Jay for this video: 

One of the wrestlers who has performed well for Chattanooga is at 133 in #30 Brayden Palmer. He's 5-1 on the year with wins over some awful wrestlers, but his loss was only 0-2 to Wisconsin's Taylor Lamont. Most significantly, during last year's dual, Byrd and Palmer wrestled an entertaining 13-10 match.

The headline match, though, will be at 174 when Edmond Ruth pits his 11-1 record against 5-0 Rocky Jordan. Wrestlestat.com prognosticates a 7-5 win for Jordan. I personally don't know how he makes weight, as he was a very big 184 pounder. Does he take a foot off the scale and place it in another dimension? 

The good news here is that the ILLINI/Chattanooga match will be the first of the day, so Rocky won't be long off the scale before his matchup with Ruth. The ILLINI has been in excellent shape this year and should be able to keep the pressure on for a full three periods. 

Dylan Connell's opponent at 184 is a good wrestler but not somebody Dylan can't beat. Zac Braunagel beat Matthew Waddell 5-2 during last season's dual. It was Big Brawny's first match back after shoulder surgery. The Moc at 184 will be favored, though, as he's in his fifth year starting and has qualified for the NCAAs three times. 

CONCLUSION

Although the ILLINI will be favored in seven of the ten matches, two of our warriors are only slight favorites. On the other hand, who knows what'll happen at 157, and we might look back at the Ruth/Jordan match and realize that the wrong fellow (Jordan) was favored to win. 

There is also the question of the missed duals by some of the Chattanooga wrestlers, especially at 141 and 149, but also at other weights. The Mocs at 141 and 149 beat their ILLINOIS opponents at last year's dual, but even if healthy and available, they would not be favored to win this year.