THE MSU OPEN PREVIEW (Part 1)
The ILLINI Wrestling team will start their season with the marathon MSU Open on Saturday, November 5, 2022. If you have seen this thing before, it starts early, the ILLINI seem to have somebody wrestling the whole day--often more than one at the same time--and there are varsity and Freshman/Sophomore brackets.
Coach Poeta has indicated that he will be bringing a large number of wrestlers to East Lansing for the tournament. He even intends to have multiple varsity wrestlers in the same weight class to help determine starters at 125, 149 and 174.
The second half of the interview below, that we recently dropped, goes into the MSU Open and lineup maneuvering:
WHAT: The MSU Open
WHEN: Saturday, November 5 (all day)
WHY: To Show Them Who's Boss
WHERE: Jenison Fieldhouse, 248 Kalamazoo Street, East Lansing, Michigan
WHO: The ILLINI Starters, Other Veterans and Freshmen/Sophomores
TV/STREAMING: FloWrestling (Paid Subscription)
THE TEAMS
According to wrestlestat.com, there will be twelve D1 teams involved. Many of the teams will bring a large percentage of their wrestlers, starters and reserves, and there will be a Freshman/Sophomore division.
Coach Poeta indicated that all the wrestlers on the team's roster can enter and be sponsored by the university (travel, per diem, lodging) except for veterans who are not starting, and who will be looking to redshirt this year. For example, that category would include Luke Luffman.
Luke wouldn't be wrestling anyway, as he's recovering from shoulder surgery.
The teams registered (by ranking at wrestlestat.com) include the following: #4 Ohio State, #9 Wisconsin (unofficial), #11 Michigan, #12 Northwestern, #23 ILLINOIS, #26 Michigan State, #33 Utah Valley, #36 Ohio, #39 Oklahoma, #45 Central Michigan, #53 Northern ILLINOIS, and #68 Cleveland State. As an unofficial tournament for the Badgers, you can expect to see only their reserves and freshmen.
THE INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS
In looking at the various wrestlers likely to show up for the tournament, the 133-pound weight class looks the most top heavy with four wrestlers in the top ten. On the other hand, 141, 157 and 197 have only one wrestler currently in the wrestlestat.com top ten.
Because most ranking services generally undervalue true and redshirt freshmen, I expect ILLINI wrestlers who are making debuts at this tournament (such as Renteria, Pucino, Harrier, Davenport, Federico, Odom, Ruth and Connell) to be undervalued. We should expect teams like Ohio State and Michigan will also have some under-ranked wrestlers at the tournament.
Here are the wrestlers ranked in the top fifty for each weight class and some discussion about what we can expect:
125. Maximo Renteria (#121), Justin Cardani (#45)
#10 Malik Heinselman (Ohio State)
#15 Joey Prata (Oklahoma)
#27 Jack Medley (Michigan)
#37 Kase Mauger (Utah Valley)
#44 Tristan Lujan (MSU)
There are two top ten wrestlers entered in Michael DeAugustino (#5) and Malik Heinselman (#10). Oklahoma's Prata won the MSU Open last year, beating Justin Cardani 3-2 in TB-1 in the semifinals. I think Jack Medley is undervalued here, as well as leg-rider Tristan Lujan.
With Cardani recovering from shoulder surgery there is a question about whether he'll be ready to wrestle. Coach Poeta is expecting the doctor to medically clear him later in the season. That leaves Maximo Renteria representing the ILLINI in the open division.
The most undervalued wrestler in the 125 bracket will almost certainly be Maximo (#121). He had a 5-6 record last year, but it was an instance where you could put your finger on exactly what happened and when it happened.
Down to the very minute.
In fact, it happened at the MSU Open.
The ILLINI destroyed his opponent in the first round. In his next bout, he was crushing his opponent in the first period, piling up points easily. Then, you could almost see the Covid hit him. He gassed at the start of the second, lost in overtime and had to forfeit out of the tournament. He was still feeling the effects in his next tournament. It wasn't until late in the season, at the Don Parker Open--which he won--that Maximo returned to his old self.
I expect Renteria to be competitive with everybody on the list above, including AA DeAugustino. Note that the Northwestern wrestler didn't wrestle at the MSU Open last year and didn't make his season debut until January. He's a big guy, and that must be a tough cut--or it could've been an injury.
I'm extremely excited to see how Maximo does against some very good 125ers at this open. I think he has the talent to beat all of them. We'll see. I'm also extremely excited to see Sammy Hayes wrestle in the Freshman/Sophomore division. The dude is a tornado.
133. Lucas Byrd (#4)
#7 Chris Cannon (Northwestern)
#9 Rayvon Foley (MSU)
#24 Wyatt Henson (Oklahoma)
#32 Haiden Drury (Utah Valley)
As noted above, this weight class has the most top-ten wrestlers with four. Leading the way is ILLINI hero Lucas Byrd. The two-time All American will have to contend with old foes Dylan Ragusin, Chris Cannon and Rayvon Foley. Byrd is 7-1 against these great wrestlers.
In fact, at last year's MSU Open, the ILLINI was a 5-2 winner over Ragusin. Of course, everybody remembers what happened at last year's NCAA tournament in the Blood Round:
A potential undervalued wrestler could be Wyatt Henson of Oklahoma. The Iowa transfer had a great 18-2 redshirt record at 141 before packing his bags for ... what? ... Oklahoma.
Last year, Lucas lost to Oklahoma's Tony Madrigal, as the Sooner got on his horse and ran away from him. The ILLINI will have to be ready for opponents attempting to hide from him in a corner of the circle.
Lucas did not wrestle for Team USA in any of the age-division freestyle or greco events during the Summer because he needed to heal up some things after the NCAA tournament. He has a huge early schedule this year, including a spot in the NWCA All Star event against ASU's Michael McGee.
Because of that, Coach Poeta has indicated that he will probably rest Byrd for the dual against Buffalo and instead wrestle a true freshman. That could be Brian Beers, Kole Brower or Hayden Halter.
The ILLINI have some firepower at 133 in the Freshman/Sophomore division at the MSU Open with those three studs. Ohio State could bring out Nic Bouzakis here.
A NOTE ABOUT WRESTLING HERESY
I will sometimes make statements that may seem heretical when it comes to college wrestling. Here's an example: My favorite single day of college wrestling last year came at the MSU Open. Not the NCAA tournament. Not the Big Ten tournament.
The MSU Open.
Here's why: The thing starts early, goes long, and there are non-stop ILLINI matches. By the time the event is over, you're exhausted!
Just watching it.
Sure, when an ILLINI is wrestling, I'm doing level changes and sprawls in my living room like a five-year old, exhausting myself, but still, there are hours and hours of great ILLINOIS Avengers action to see.
You also get to watch a lot of the guys on the roster, especially with the Freshman/Sophomore brackets. And this is a time when you are eager to see how those rooks do against competition. My only disappointment was only getting to see one Eddie Ordonez match.
By the time Luke Luffman finished up his last MSU Open battle--the arena mostly empty--and with ILLINI wrestlers gathered around the mat cheering him on with their yells and the echoes of their yells, you couldn't help but have had a glorious day.
141. Danny Pucino (#51)
#12 Frankie Tal-Shahar (Northwestern)
#32 Ty Smith (Utah Valley)
#33 Jaivon Jones (NIU)
#43 Cole Mattin (Michigan)
#46 Kyran Hagan (Ohio)
This will be an interesting, and winnable, bracket for Danny Pucino. He's one of the wrestlers that I feel will become a breakout star this year for the ILLINI. He wrestles an exciting, brave style, and Coach Poeta indicated that he worked real hard over the Summer.
Moreover, this particular tournament is one of the reasons why I think we can expect big things from Pucino. You see, he's already beaten the top two wrestlers listed above, D'Emilio and Tal-Shahar.
(141 is going to be a hard cut for Tal-Shahar to make this year, I believe).
It is very likely that, for him to win the tournament, he'll have to beat both of them. Consecutively.
Of the other wrestlers in the bracket, Cole Mattin seems under-valued. He is always a tough out, though not as flashy or as athletic as Pucino. Smith, Jones and Hagan have all started for a full season, but only one of them (Smith) qualified for the NCAAs before, and that was with an 8-7 record.
I expect that Michigan and Ohio State will have some good young wrestlers enter in this bracket, and they'll have to be taken seriously. For example, Ohio State's Jordan Decatur can be a load if he is acclimated to the weight. (NOTE: Since I first wrote this, Jordan Decatur has beaten D'Emilio in the OSU wrestle off). Michigan state champion Nathan Jerore will probably wrestle in the Freshmen/Sophomore bracket.
Look for Pucino to make a strong run in the open bracket.
As for the ILLINI in the Freshmen/Sophomore bracket, guys like Trey Piotrowski and Michael could make serious noise, although they're listed as Juniors on FightingILLINI.com. I think they may still be Sophomore eligible, given Covid.
149. Kevon Davenport (#50), Jake Harrier (#162), Tony Federico (#91)
#10 Yahya Thomas (Northwestern)
#16 Johnny Lovett (CMU)
#19 Willie McDougald (Okla)
#20 Chance Lamer (UM)
#29 Alec Hagan
This will be a hugely exciting bracket for ILLINI fans. Coach Poeta has said he wants to have all three wrestlers vying for the starting spot enter this tournament. The bracket also has some past All Americans for the ILLINI to measure themselves against, as well as four other tough wrestlers ranked between 16 and 29.
Davenport is the Nebraska transfer who was a four-time Michigan state champ. Jake Harrier may be the most under-ranked wrestler on the wrestlestat.com website, as he had a high school career shortened because of injury but began to flourish at Lindenwood before joining the ILLINI and having a successful U23.
Tony Federico was a Fresno State Bulldog until they dropped the program, and he returned to his home state.
Sasso was a national finalist and three time AA, so he'll be the measure for everybody else in the bracket. Yahya has a third-place NCAA finish and a Round of 12. Johnny Lovett of Central Michigan has qualified for the Big Dance twice, finishing in the Round of 16 once.
Chance Lamer had a nice 17-2 redshirt year for Michigan during which he seemed to improve as the year went along. He could be really good. Oklahoma's Willie McDougald went to the NCAA tournament and won two matches, one against ISU's Jarrett Degen and the other against Minnesota's Michael Blockhus. You know he's gonna be tough.
Still, I see another breakout star for the ILLINI at this weight. The only question is: Who's it going to be? A second- or third-place finish at the MSU Open for one of our guys means we've found the breakout star.
An ILLINOIS schoolboy, Braden Stauffenberg, will likely suit it up for MSU at this weight in the Freshman/Sophomore division. Charlie Fifield is listed on the ILLINI roster here.
157. Joe Roberts (#91), Luke Odom (#102)
#18 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#21 Marcus Robinson (Cleve)
#24 Corbyn Munson (CMU)
#32 Trevor Chumbley (Northwestern)
#35 Paddy Gallagher (Ohio State)
#37 Munkhtulga Zuunbayan (NIU)
#46 Drew Scharenbrock (Wiscy)
#48 Daniel Snediker (Utah Valley)
This weight class is not top heavy at all. But it has more top fifty wrestlers than any other bracket, although it is tied with 165 at nine. This will be a tough row to hoe for both Joe Roberts and Luke Odom, as they vie for the starting spot. Roberts won three matches and made it to the quarterfinals of this tournament last year. Zuunbayan of Northern ILLINOIS and Chase Saldate of MSU wrestled in the finals with the Spartan winning.
I believe with the free Covid year, Roberts still has a redshirt to use if needed. So, it will be interesting to see if he arrives at the MSU Open attached or unattached.
He never got over the hump last year, ending up with an 11-16 record. He lost a one-point match to #4 Peyton Robb of Nebraska, but then also lost by three to the #68 wrestler from Rutgers.
Because of the free Covid year, it looks like Luke Odom also has a redshirt available. Last season, he only wrestled three matches, going 1-2 at the MSU Open.
ILLINI Jake Reicin is a veteran at the weight, who will be in the big boy bracket; true Freshmen Cooper Wettig and Billy Spassov are available to wrestle on the Freshman/Sophomore side.
To have a truly salty lineup from top to bottom, the ILLINI need one of these gentlemen at 157 to step up, to show improvement, and to show consistency. If one of them can navigate really deep into this bracket of very good, but not very great, wrestlers, then the ILLINI will have found their guy.
Wyatt Henson of Oklahoma won his wrestle off at 133 by one point. Could be a big pull for him. We'll see.
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