The Second Day of the ILLINI NCAA Wrestling Tournament

FUTURE PATHS

Coming out of day one, the ILLINI have one wrestler in the championship bracket and two left in consolation brackets. There are some winnable matches out there. Let's look at the future paths these ILLINOIS warriors might trod. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL.  He's still on the championship side of the bracket, and he's wrestled two fantastic matches to get there. The Brawlnagel is on a seven-match-winning streak during the B1G and NCAA Tournaments. His reward? An Olympic medalist in the NCAA quarterfinals.

Myles Amine has lost two matches during the past two years. Both were to NCAA champions (Aaron Brooks this year at 184; AJ Ferrari last year at 197). 

On wrestlestat.com, the algorithm predicts a 7-5 win for the #1 Wolverine over the #12 ILLINI. Against common opposition, Zac is 10-7, while Amine is 11-1. Against most of those people, the Michigan kid did substantially better than the ILLINOIS kid--besides beating more of them. The one shining hope is that Kaleb Romero has kept matches with Amine very close, losing in SV and by two points. If Zac has pulled himself up to that level, he has a chance. 

Win that match, and he'll face off against either UNI's Parker Keckeisen or Cal Poly's Bernie Truax in the Semis. Lose to the Michigander, and he will have to beat one of Jonathan Loew of Cornell, Isaiah Salazar of Minnesota, John Poznanski of Rutgers or Brit Wilson of NIU. Brawny would need to win match #550 to get AA status:

LUCAS BYRD.  An unexpected loss happened to Lucas early in last year's tournament, and he focused and grinded his way through the consolations. That's what he'll need to do this year as well. From the snippet of the bracket below, you can see that, to become an All American again, he'll need to first beat #9 seed Michael Colaiocco of Penn, then the winner of Heilmann/Koderhandt and, finally, the loser of the McGee/Ragusin match. 

Although he's the 9th seed in the tournament, Colaiocco is #19 on wrestlestat.com, which is probably why that service has the ILLINI winning their matchup 9-4. That, and their records against common opposition. Lucas is a perfect 8-0, while the Penn kid is 3-3. Most significantly, Colaiocco lost at the ILLINOIS Matmen Open by a 10-3 score to Drew Mattin of Michigan. He hasn't beaten anybody of real significance this year, but this is his second year qualifying for the Big Dance. Penn did not participate in the NCAA Tournament last season. 

Joe Heilmann of North Carolina is 16-8 on the year. This is his third year starting for the Tar Heels and first year qualifying for the tournament. Wrestlestat.com sees this as a 10-4 win for the ILLINI if they face off against each other. Heilmann beat Kyle Burwick by a 6-2 score in is first consolation bracket match, so he is pretty tough. 

Navy's Koderhandt is rated about the same as Heilmann, and like him, the wrestlestat.com program picks the sailor to lose to the ILLINI by a 10-4 score. Koderhandt has a weird record against common opponents, as he's beaten Purdue's Matt Ramos twice, but he lost by tech fall to Dylan Ragusin and got smashed by Rayvon Foley. 

Win those two, and Lucas Byrd can get his revenge against Ragusin in the Blood Round. He had already beaten him in the MSU Open this year before the loss at the BTT. 

LUKE LUFFMAN.  In his quest to win All American honors, the big guy from Urbana High will run into increasingly difficult bosses until he runs into the Final Boss, Lucas Davison of Northwestern. Like any boss in a video game, including a Final Boss, they are meant to be beaten. Here is a snippet of his bracket showing Luke's immediate future:

First up is Joe Doyle of Binghamton. Wrestlestat.com predicts a one-point win for the ILLINI in this match even though Luuuuke's 9-4 record against common opponents is much better than Doyle's 7-9. Moreover, the ILLINI has beaten those guys by much wider margins than his foe. 

Win that, and he has either "Gas Tank" Gary Traub of Oregon State or Tyrie Houghton of North Carolina State. Traub, of course, transferred from Ohio State to Oregon State after Tate Orndorff transferred into Columbus. One of Luffman's first matches as an ILLINI was against a much thinner Traub. The then-Buckeye won 10-4. Luke has improved a lot since then, and Gas Tank is now a Full Tank--he's been enjoying the buffet too much, if you know what I mean. 

Houghton is in his second year starting for the Wolf Pack, but this is his first time qualifying. On the championship side of the bracket, he lost a 2-3 decision to Christian Lance. Wrestlestat.com sees a match with Luffman being a losing affair for Houghton. But just by one point. 

Win those two matches and Luke would have Lucas Davison. He's lost to Davison three times this year. The first time was a 10-4 regular decision at the MSU Open. Since then, he's lost 3-2 and 3-1. So, this could be another tight match in the Blood Round!

THE FIRST DAY

I just wanted to mention a few things about that first day. It was great to see Lucas Byrd get his revenge against Oklahoma's Madrigal. He's on a path to revisit his dear friend Dylan Ragusin in the blood round. 

Zac Braunagel also exacted sweet justice against the Campbell wrestler who beat him in the first round of last year's tournament. The Brawlnagel's match against a very good Marcus Coleman of Iowa State was one of the best you'll ever see. 

It was a Thor versus Hulk slugfest. 

Luke Luffman had a dominant win over Luke Surber of Oklahoma State. The Cowboy is very quick and scored on a low ankle shot and defended well with a Delgado-style funk roll, but after that, it was all Luffman. In his match with Cassioppi, Luke had a bad first two periods, but he came on in the third. He actually cradled up the Hawkeye and rolled him over onto his back.

Cass looked pretty flat to me! Haha!