The Greatest B1G Wrestling Tournament Preview Ever

NOTE: THE LATEST INFORMATION CAN BE EASILY SPOTTED AS IT IS HIGHLIGHTED LIKE THIS OR LIKE THIS. 

WHAT:  Big Ten Conference Championship

WHERE:  Stupid Lincoln, Nebraska

WHEN:  March 5-6, Session I starts a 10:00 AM (Central)

TV/STREAMING:  BTN, possible streaming or tape delay from BTN+

THAT BTN+ SUBSCRIPTION

All sessions are scheduled on BTN on both days. The ILLINI schedule shows that BTN+ will stream the event, but whether or not that will be via tape delay is unknown at this time. The BTN+ event calendar does not show the BTT on either March 5 or 6 at this time. I will not cancel my BTN+ sub at this time, as I don't have BTN here where I live, under an overpass in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. 

TIME CAPSULE

It was March 6, 2005. 

"Candy Shop" by 50 Cent topped the charts. The box office leader was The Pacifier starring Vin Diesel as a Navy SEAL sent to watch the children of a fallen comrade. Resident Evil 4, a survival horror third-person shooter video game developed by Capcom for the Nintendo GameCube, enthralled millions of kids around the world, even though that very night, 60 Minutes ran a program about the evils resident in video games. 

Earlier that day, the ILLINI destroyed the rest of the Big Ten.

"In his 13th season in Champaign, Illini head coach Mark Johnson brought home the Big Ten title with a 130-point performance at this year's championships. Coming in second was Minnesota with 123.5 points followed by Michigan with 118, Iowa with 94.5 and Indiana and Wisconsin tied for fifth with 89 points. Rounding out the field was Penn State with 72.5 points, Michigan State with 70.5, Northwestern with 68.5, Purdue with 38.5 and Ohio State with 26.5."

ILLINI champions that day were Alex Tirapelle (over Ryan Bertin) and Pete Friedl (over Jake Herbert). Winning silver for the Orange and Blue were Kyle Ott, Mark Jayne and Brian Glynn. Cassio Pero finished third. Tyrone Byrd finished in fifth. Donny Reynolds and Mike Behnke were sixth. 

CAVEATS

I will republish or at least update this Preview once we know the true seeds and automatic qualifier allocations. The rankings here are from Intermat. Since this Preview was first posted, the NCAA has provided conference pre-allocations. Here is the allocations for the Big Ten per weight class:

The Coach's rankings and RPI can be found at this link. 

The list of wrestlers below is by Intermat ranking. The information provided is Name of Wrestler / School / Intermat Ranking / Overall Record / Conference Dual Record / Relevant to Seeding Wins & Losses. Only Division One matches are counted in the records below. 

ILLINI COACH'S RANK & RPI

The ILLINI have seven wrestlers who were ranked by the coaches. Six of those also received an RPI. Dylan Duncan did not because he didn't have enough matches. Here are those numbers:

The RPI measures a wrestler's winning percentage along with his opponent's and that opponent's opponents. Lucas Byrd had a great winning percentage with just one loss, and he wrestled a lot of tough guys. He deserves that #1. Luke Luffman didn't have only one loss, but he obviously wrestled some tough opponents to be at #5. 

JUSTIN CARDANI -- 125

Barring injuries, we can expect to see these wrestlers at 125 at the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATIONS.  The B1G coaches almost have to deviate from the rankings when it comes to DeAugustino, as his 7-2 dual record is so much better than McKee's (3-5) and Ayala's (4-2). Additionally, I think Justin Cardani is a better wrestler than Dylan Shawver, but I expect that Shawver's much better conference record and head-to-head win over the ILLINI jumps him up a spot in seeding. 

HERE'S WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED. Below are the B1G preseeds placed into a bracket. The B1G coaches didn't listen to all of my suggestions above. 

As you can see, the guy screwed the most was Northwestern's DeAugustino. His 7-2 conference dual mark got passed over for Drake Ayala's 4-2 record. The Iowa grappler had a head-to-head win, which was given priority. Because of the H-2-H win, I don't expect the B1G will rectify the mistake when the final bracket is released. 

Justin Cardani will likely have DeAugustino in the first round. This could be VERY good news for the ILLINI, as the Mildcat is a very big person wrestling at 125. There are no pig-tail matches at any weight, so the bout will be one of the first matches at the tournament. As long as they have six mats going at once in the first round, that means DeAugustino weighs in and has to go as soon as the championships kick off. 

Of course, Cardani will need to keep the Mildcat from putting in both of his legs for his favorite stall ride. And, as always, Justin will need to convert his takedown chances. It will also be important for the ILLINI to keep the NW fatty working hard the whole match so that he wilts in the third period. 

If he wins that match, Justin would have Drew Hildebrandt, the number two seed, in the quarterfinals. They have faced each other once--a long time ago--and that match was won by Hildebrandt 1-0. The weight gets ten qualification spots. As long as Cardani finishes eleventh, he should be in, as he has a nice Coach's ranking and RPI. 

OVERAL OUTLOOK.  Nick Suriano is the favorite to win, but his win over Hildebrandt was only 2-1. Also, the Michigan Skeleton is so thin. He could be susceptible immediately after weighing in. Hildebrandt, Barnett and DeAugustino are also heavier 125ers who could be upset in an early round. There are enough awful wrestlers at the bottom of the conference that none of them should have anything to worry about, although Cardani or Shawver versus DeAugustino in an early match should be marked down as a potential upset special. 

FUN FACT.  Nick Suriano's career record at the Big Ten Tournament is 5-5. That includes a number of injury defaults and his 4-0 record at 133 in 2019, which included victories over DeSanto, Lizak and Pletcher. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  I can see nine or ten automatic qualifiers at this weight for the B1G. The only question is whether Justin Cardani has maintained his Coach's ranking position. He was at #19 in the first ranking, but he will have fallen since then. How far? 

NOTE: Automatic pre-allocation qualification numbers are out. The Big Ten got ten wrestlers in at this weight. Cardani is also listed at #26 in the rankings and #9 in the RPI. He should be safely in no matter what. 

Cardani should not lose to any of the bottom four wrestlers, so he should be safely into an automatic qualification. He can't have the same tournament he had last year, though, losing to everybody except for Maryland. 

As you can see in the draft bracket below, the ILLINI would have Patrick McKee in the first round. Other likely matchups would be Ayala or DeAugustino. I would rather he wrestle the chubby kid from Northwestern first, but I think McKee is most likely. If Cardani is the #10 seed and wins his first match, he'd face Hildebrandt in the quarters. Will the PSU wrestler have had time to rehydrate? Probably. Still, in their only meeting a couple of years ago, Hildebrandt won 1-0 at the MSU Open.

This was an earlier bracket that I set up based upon what I thought were fair seeds:

LUCAS BYRD -- 133

Here is the roster of Big Ten wrestlers at 133 listed based upon their Intermat rankings:

DEVIATIONS.  The coaches must deviate from the rankings above to put Matt Ramos ahead of Olivieri. The disparity in conference duals is too much to overlook. Also, they should put Burwick ahead of Gliva. As for the unranked fellows in these lists, I'm placing them in the order that makes the most sense based upon their conference dual marks or based upon wrestlestat.com rankings or head-to-heads. 

I think the conference is allocated nine automatic qualifier spots. The only question is how far Gliva has fallen in the Coach's Ranking. He should have the RPI, and he's certainly good enough to have earned an automatic qualifier. 

NOTE: Pre-allocations are out, and the B1G got ten wrestlers at this weight. Not a thing for Lucas Byrd to worry about in any event. He was listed as the #6 wrester at 133 in the rankings, #1 in RPI. 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  The coaches got the Ramos/Olivieri seeding wrong. Ramos should be ahead of the Rutgers wrestler. The coaches did get the Burwick/Gliva seeding right. Here's the bracket based upon preseeds:

Dylan Koontz is 3-9 on the season. He will not present complications for Lucas Byrd. Next, the ILLINI is likely to see Hudkins in the quarterfinals. I think that's better than what DeSanto has to face. The Iowa wrestler likely has Chris Cannon in the quarters. That should give Cannon time to rehydrate. 

Lucas has to remember that it also gives Hudkins time to rehydrate, but the Indiana wrestler should have a much tougher battle in the first round against Burwick, who will fight hard if not well. 

In his last match, Austin DeSanto still had that webbing of tape on his hands. That must still be bothering him. I'm looking forward to that matchup! 

FUN FACT.  This is what Heavyweight Nation has to say about 133 in their preview of the Big Ten Tournament: 

"133-

1. Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State)
2. Austin Desanto (Iowa)

Honestly just a two horse race here at 133 unless Rayvon Foley and Dylan Ragusin have something to say about it...." 

No mention of Lucas Byrd, but there is mention of the guy who lost to Byrd this year and won only one match at NCAAs last year at 125 (Ragusin), and the guy who was Round of 16 last year at 125 and whose best finish ever at 125 was 7th (Foley). I'll take Lucas Byrd, thank you. I like Heavyweight Nation, but I left this comment at his preview: "Lucas Byrd." 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  RBY will be the favorite and get the #1 seed even though Lucas Byrd won the conference dual crown record at 133 with a spotless 8-0 ledger. He should also be ahead of DeSanto, but I expect the coaches will give the ILLINI the three seed. 

I expect RBY will have Rayvon Foley in one semifinal, assuming Foley gets past Dylan Ragusin, who he has already beaten this year. In the other semifinal, look for a rematch of last year's with Lucas Byrd taking down Austin DeSanto. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Lucas Byrd, as a three seed, will not get a bye in the first round. Rather, he'll likely face Dylan Koontz of OSU or Dominic Serrano of Nebraska. Then, it would be Chris Cannon or Brock Hudkins to get into the semis. He will win there and again in the finals. He is a natural, who uses leverage, physics, a keen sense of mat awareness, quickness and not a little magic to win. 

Lucas Byrd is my Master Lock Upset Special of the Week!

DYLAN DUNCAN

What can we expect from our guy from Montini? Let's look at the field before we decide. Here are his opponents as ranked according to Intermat:

DEVIATIONS.  If I were a Big Ten coach, I'd probably have Parker Filius with his 5-3 conference record a little higher, but, then again, maybe not. Both Zargo and Bergeland have some pretty big wins in conference duals. Do you put Filius in front of them? That's a good question. I think this is, top to bottom, the best group of wrestlers in the B1G. Cayden Rooks at #13 says a lot about that. Is Micic really going to get a #5 seed? Duncan #6? That's crazy!

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  I've always suspected that most B1G wrestling coaches are bone-headed idiots--we're so lucky to have Coach Poeta--and the seeding at this weight proves it. They have given returning All American Dylan Duncan a #9 preseed!

Compare Duncan with Iowa's Drake Ayala. The Iowa wrestler gets a #6 seed even though he has a similar conference mark to the ILLINI, and even though he had two additional nonconference-dual-losses to a B1G opponent.

Most significantly, Ayala didn't finish in fifth-place at the NCAA championships last year. Even though I think Cael Sanderson might not have much going for him above the shoulders, he will likely pull  out all stops to keep his #1 seed from having to wrestle a returning AA in the second round of the conference tournament. 

The conference only got seven seeds at this weight even though I believe it is the best, top to bottom, in the Big Ten. I think that up to five NCAA-worthy wrestlers will not get their tickets punched to the Big Dance. Finally, Dylan likely cannot afford to finish in eighth place here, as he will be missing out on wildcard criteria, including win percentage and RPI. 

Note that the B1G coaches did manage to get Stevan Micic a #6 seed, even though he hasn't wrestled a ton of matches, and even though his conference dual mark isn't that much better than Duncan's (4-2 versus 3-2). **** you, coaches! 

FUN FACT.  Dylan Duncan became an All American last year by going 6-2 in the NCAA Tournament. His two losses were to Sebastian Rivera. His favorite cartoon is Avatar: The Last Airbender. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This is a very dangerous bracket. Jordan Hamdan is a four-time Michigan state champion, and he will be the 12 or 13 seed. The top six in the bracket could finish top six at the NCAA Tournament in some order. Nick Lee's chances of winning the bracket are probably 25% better than Eierman's and Rivera's only because the latter two will face each other in the semifinals. 

So, I'll pick Lee to win. 

Rivera has never wrestled Eierman, but he lost to Lee by six at last year's Big Dance. The Hawkeye will have to win two matches that he could lose, and I expect him to do something fun but stupid in one of those matches to lose. Duncan, Micic and Red are all dark horses. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Dylan Duncan is a returning AA, who had a vaguely disastrous B1G Tournament last year. He took a big 3-12 major decision loss to Red that he would later avenge at NCAAs. He also lost to Parker Filius in a puzzler. He still finished 3-2 at B1Gs. 

In recent matches against against Zargo and Red, he hasn't seemed himself. Very few takedown attempts. Pale. Not what a healthy Duncan can be expected to do. He can beat everybody in the bracket if he's on form. 

Will he be on form? 

I have likened Dylan to a professional shortstop with his clean and sharp movements. He has a combination of beautiful, technical offense on his feet and the ability to ride hard and turn really good wrestlers. Refs owe him a pin over Chad Red and about twelve additional back points. Remember that, refs! 

NOTE: The allocations have come out, and the B1G only got a paltry seven automatic qualifiers. Dylan is ranked at #31(only the Lord knows why), and because he didn't have enough matches, he didn't get an RPI. He will need to finish in the top seven to get to the NCAA Tournament, although there is an outside shot at a wildcard if he finishes in eighth. 

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT TRIVIA

1.  If you go to Wikipedia and type in "Big Ten Wrestling Tournament," you get jack squat. Well, there's actually a redirection page that lists twelve entries showing twelve Big Ten wrestling teams. Two teams are missing from that list. Can you tell me which two? Hint: One of the missing teams has a girl's name. 

2.  How many times has ILLINOIS won the Big Ten Wrestling Tournament? Hint: The school has won it more than seventeen times but less than nineteen times.  

CHRISTIAN KANZLER -- 149

Here is the lineup of tough guys that Christian will have to beat at 149 in the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATIONS.  I think the Intermat rankings look pretty good. The question is what the Big Ten coaches do with Kanen Storr. He's just 1-1 in conference duals and has only ten matches on the year. That has a direct impact on Kanzler, as he and Blockhus and Storr will be vying for those eight through nine seeds. 

There could be from nine to ten pre-allocated qualification spots at this weight. Max Murin doesn't have enough matches to be considered for RPI, but he has enough for winning percentage and Coach's Ranking. He will meet those two criteria. Kanen Storr will not. He doesn't have the fifteen matches needed for an RPI, and he doesn't have a good enough winning percentage. The question is whether Graham Rooks will have the necessary RPI and Coach's Ranking. 

NOTE:  I predicted 9-10 pre-allocation qualifying spots at this weight and was wrong, wrong, wrong. There are only seven. That means the top seven finishers get in, and the person who finishes eighth will have a legitimate shot at a wild card. Christian is ranked at #32 and has an RPI at #26. 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  Well, the coaches almost got this right. Here are the preseeds assigned to a bracket:

The ILLINI has a very winnable first-round match. In fact, he recently beat Graham Rooks in the dual by the score of 4-3. Christian is #32 in the Coach's Ranking with a #26 RPI, so he will likely need to finish at least eighth to secure a wildcard. 

Only seven wrestlers at 149 will win an auto bid to the Big Dance. 

The opportunity is there for Kanzler to punch his ticket. This weight has some fish that he should easily beat in the consolation bracket. He's been wrestling pretty tough as of late, and as long as he keeps doing that, he can advance. 

FUN FACT.  Christian Kanzler has come a long way and developed into a very good wrestler. Just ask the guys he beat who are two-time NCAA qualifiers: Michael Blockhus and Graham Rooks. Kanzler finished 6th in the IHSA 3A tournament at 126. He was a two-time NJCAA All American, finishing as a runner-up in 2018 for Lincoln College. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This weight class has it all! You've got sneaky defensive specialists and cradlers like Sasso, big move aficionados like Lovett and Gomez, brawlers such as Murin and Thomas, as well as crafty veterans like Storr, Kanzler, Blockhus and Rooks. Finally, there's the tiny, young phenom in Bartlett. 

Sammy Sasso is the obvious favorite, but not an overwhelming one. He will likely have a tough semifinal match against Max Murin, who he beat 3-2 in the dual, then a final against one of the dangerous guys: Gomez or Lovett. 

Sasso just keeps winning, though, so he is my pick. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Christian Kanzler likely faces Minnesota's Michael Blockhus in his first match. I think they're the solid eight and nine seeds. That could be disrupted depending on where the coaches put Kanen Storr. I think you have to reward the guys who earned a pre-allocation spot for the conference first, however, and that would leave Storr as the ten seed. 

In their dual matchup, Christian hit the most beautiful Tomoe Nage for six against Blockhus. The ILLINI went on to win the match 13-8. If he gets that win, in the next round, Kanzler would face Sasso. 

That almost certainly means he'll need a run in the consolations. I think the kid in the Orange and Blue singlet is safely in the tournament as long as he wins a match or two in the conference tournament. Since they'll likely have one of those 9th-place brackets, that'll give Christian a chance at meeting up with some guys he should ragdoll. 

And he might surprise with a nice podium finish! He has really jumped levels this year, and his confidence has to be at an all-time high. 

JOE ROBERTS -- 157

Here are the list of wrestlers at 157 who will be at the Big Ten Tournament barring injury or illness:

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  The B1G coaches have provided preseeds that, when applied to a bracket, look like this:

Only seven pre-allocation spots at this weight, and Joe Roberts will likely not meet the criteria if he finishes in eighth, so his marching orders are short and to-the-point: Finish top seven. 

He actually has a very nice bracket for doing just that!

His first match as a #12 seed would be against #5 Peyton Robb, a guy who he lost to by the narrowest of margins, 2-3, in the recent dual. If he should win that match, he'd have Kendall Coleman in the next. 

And that's not such bad news either, even though the Purdue kid is the #4 seed. You see, in their dual showdown, Coleman won by three, but Roberts was ready for the Boilermaker's sneaky shrug-bys and his blast doubles. 

For a guy who finished 1-7 in conference duals, Roberts has a real, a legitimate, an actual chance to reach the semifinals of the B1G tournament. I think he can do it!

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  This year 157 in the B1G is a big mess, and it's ugly and fat. It's a big, fat ugly mess. Minnesota's Brayton Lee is out with an injury, so the conference loses a pre-allocation qualifying spot. Brady Berge of Penn State drops down, and he has only had two matches at 157, wasting an auto-qualifier at 165. 

Deakin is the favorite, but he's 2-2 versus Iowa's Kaleb Young. He's wrestled Nebraska's Peyton Robb only once, and that was a two-pointer. Will Lewan faced Deakin twice and kept it to within three once. Kendall Coleman has faced the Mildcat about five times and been pinned about three times. 

Compared to wrestlers across the NCAA, this has to be the worst weight in conference in terms of depth. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  This weight is in turmoil, and other than Deakin probably winning, it could be loaded with surprises. Joe Roberts has improved over the course of the year and has looked especially sharp in his last four matches. 

With the dearth of automatic qualifying spots at this weight, Joe will probably need to have two big upsets to qualify for the NCAA tournament. 

NOTE:  The B1G was allocated only seven automatic spots at this weight. Joe Roberts did not get a Coach's ranking or an RPI. He'll need to finish in the top seven to qualify for the Big Dance. 

I have Joe as the 12th seed, but he could slide further down. That means his first-round match will likely be against either Lewan, Robb or Coleman. Roberts has faced Coleman and Peyton Robb already, losing matches by three points and one point respectively. In fact, Joe's last match was against the Cornhusker, and he looked really good in that very close one-point loss. So, there's a chance!

 

DANNY BRAUNAGEL -- 165

These are the wrestlers and their likely seeds that we should look for at 165 at the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATION.  I would have Michigan State's Caleb Fish ahead of Nebraska's Wilson. Give credit to the Cornhusker for beating Amine, though, so it is a close call. I would also put Purdue's Lohrey ahead of Minnesota's Cael Carlson because of the better conference dual record. The Coach's rankings might get these right, and we won't have to worry about it. 

Most significantly, I hope the Coaches aren't buying this Edsell crap. He has four wins in duals, but they're all basically worthless. I would deviate from the rankings there by putting Brawlnagel and Caleb Fish ahead of him. (See "Fun Fact" below). 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  The conference coaches love them some Fishsticks. They put Caleb Fish as the #5 preseed. I didn't think he'd be jumped that high, especially with Honorable Mention All American Danny Braunagel at #6 with the same conference record and better conference wins. Here's the bracket with the B1G preseeds:

This weight also only gets seven auto-bids to the Big Dance. Little Brawny is pretty safe with a #24 Coach's Ranking and an RPI at #17 even if he should finish eighth. Maybe even ninth. 

His first match will be against David Ferrante from Northwestern. The two have traded matches in the past, with the Brawlnagel winning when he's uninjured but losing if he's injured. 

If the ILLINI coaches should lobby for the #5 seed over Caleb Fish, that would work out so much better. Being on that side of the bracket and facing a #4 seed he has never lost to (Cam Amine; 3-0), versus being where he's at in the #6 line, facing a quarterfinal matchup with Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin. 

FUN FACT.  Creighton Edsell of Penn State was undefeated in conference duals! FACT. The untold story is that he wrestled only backups whose combined record is 12-36. FACT. Their Wrestlestat.com rankings are #73, #133, #146 and #200. FACT. Now, wasn't that fun? 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  Marinelli has been a hammer up to the NCAA tournament every year. However, he would have to beat both Hamiti and Kharchla to win the B1G tournament this season, and I don't think he does it. With the easier semifinal, Kharchla has the better prospects.  

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  As a likely #5 or #6 seed, Little Brawny will probably face either Northwestern's David Ferrante or Rutgers' Andrew Clark in the first round. He beat both of them this year in duals, although he lost to Ferrante at an open. It is important for the ILLINI coaches to fight for that fifth seed for Danny, as the sixth seed has Hamiti in the quarterfinals, then Marinelli, then Kharchla. 

The fifth seed, on the other hand, would face Amine in the quarterfinals, then Kharchla, then the winner of Marinelli/Hamiti. That saves you from having to go through one of the hot wrestlers. Of course, it could be that Danny Braunagel will be the hot wrestler that week! 

NOTE: The B1G received only seven automatic qualifying spots at this weight. Thankfully, Danny has a Coach's Ranking of #24 and an RPI of #17. 

DJ SHANNON

Below is a list of  the awful people that DJ Shannon might have to wrestle at 174 in the Big Ten Tournament, based upon Intermat rank, followed by overall wins, conference wins, and seedingly significant wins and losses:

DEVIATIONS.  The list above is based upon Intermat rankings, then some guesses for the unranked folk. It is helpful to make assumptions about conference pre-allocations and seedings, but that information should come out later today (Thursday, February 24). 

I have a very hard time seeding Michael Kemerer at #4. It is probably the correct seed given his head-to-head losses, but as a B1G coach, I might protest and rebel against it. 

The major deviations can occur between seeds eight through ten. They have one of those crazy-weird head-to-head loss scenarios. You see, Shannon beat McNally, but Fisher beat Shannon. How will the B1G coaches deal with it? I don't know. What I've done above is put McNally at his Intermat ranking followed by Shannon and then Fisher because the ILLINI has the better Wrestlestat ranking versus the Wildcat. 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  Once the dust settled, the B1G coaches decided that Northwestern's Troy Fisher would get the #8 seed, Maryland's Dominic Solis #9 (even though he lost to a backup), DJ Shannon at #10, followed by McNally at #11. Here are the preseeds placed into a bracket:

First things first: I apologize to Maryland's Dominic Solis for misspelling his name in the bracket above. My excuse is that the Big Ten coaches misspelled it in their preseeds! And they misspelled John Poznanski's and Zac Braunagel's names as well! 

I caught those misspellings because I knew of them. I had no idea who Solis was. 

THEY TERK AR SEEDS! 

I would have much rather had DJ Shannon in the #9 spot as I know he can beat Troy Fisher at #8. It will be a tougher go beating Gerrit Nijenhuis in the first round. That will be a battle between two physical specimens! 

The ILLINI has been wrestling very well lately and has shown some confidence in his offense and his ability to secure a cradle. The latter making him a very dangerous wrestler for anybody in the bracket. 

There are eight pre-allocation qualification spots at this weight. DJ will likely need to finish at least eighth, as he'll be short in win percentage and RPI in any wild card situation. 

FUN FACT.  Isaiah Martinez was 14-0 at the B1G Championships as a four-time champion, beating Jason Nolf, Dylan Ness, Vincenzo Joseph (x2), Logan Massa, Isaiah White, Tyler Berger, Brian Murphy, Richie Lewis, Johnny Sebastian, Drew Hughes, TJ Ruschell, Doug Welch and Luke Frey. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  Over the years, Michael Kemerer has had four losses at the Big Ten Tournament. Last season, of course, he had none and beat Carter Starocci in the finals. The Nittany Lion beat the Hawk at the Big Dance, though. 

Starocci has had three one-point wins so far this season. Can he continue that trend? One-point wins are better than losses, so he'll be the favorite here. The winner of this tough bracket will be the fellow strong enough and mentally tough enough to be able to beat somebody by one point two times in a row. The semifinals should be scintillating, with the top four only challenged by Ethan Smith. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  The ILLINI faithful have been waiting for DJ to turn it on. He showed a lot of promise in his very first tournament as an ILLINI, pushing Kaleb Romero to the brink a couple of years ago at the MSU Open. He's turned it on late this season with big wins over Andrew McNally of Wisconsin and Nick South of Indiana (one of their good wrestlers). Shannon has even heard what the Ruth is cookin' by throwing in a cradle whenever possible. 

I expect a minimum of eight conference pre-allocations at this weight, and there could be nine or even ten, depending upon whether Shannon and South earn a favorable Coach's ranking. That means there will likely be a sort of mini-tournament between McNally, Shannon, South and Fisher for that automatic-NCAA-berth eighth spot, and the very important ninth place finish, which should earn that wrestler a wildcard. I expect the two wrestlers who finish tenth and eleventh will not get into the Big Dance. 

NOTE:  The B1G received the minimum of eight conference pre-allocations as I suspected. DJ did not get a Coach's Ranking or an RPI, so he'll need to finish at least eighth. 

As for his draw, as the eighth or ninth seed, Shannon would almost certainly see Wisconsin's McNally in his opening match, followed by Starocci. With a tenth seed, he would likely face Nijenhuis or O'Reilly. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL

Here is your lineup at 184 for the Big Ten Tournament:

DEVIATIONS.  Kyle Cochran and Donnell Washington could both see their seeds fall based upon losing conference dual records. Additionally, Washington missed three matches. As you can see above, Intermat has ranked thirteen of the fourteen wrestlers at this weight in the Big Ten. 

They all deserve it.

The major deviations in seeding will occur in the middle and lower half of the seeds. I am hoping that recency bias plays a part in the case of 184. Zac Braunagel is coming off a huge catch-and-release win over Taylor Venz that was broadcast live on BTN. Hopefully, all of the B1G coaches and the NCAA-ranking coaches saw it. I believe that's what propelled him up to the #17 ranking by Intermat. 

On the flip side, Abe Assad has a better conference dual mark than Venz or the Brawlnagel, yet his last few matches have been, well, less shiny and good. That's why Intermat has him at #20. Salazar has a 4-1 mark in conference duals, and he might also move up. 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  The B1G coaches did not listen to me, and they ****** up big time! Not only do they spell Zac's name wrong, but they have him as the #12 seed. WTAF? Here are the preseeds placed into a bracket:

How in the hell is Maryland's Kyle Cochran a #8 seed? Donnell Washington's B1G dual record is 2-3, Cochran's is 3-5. Now, compare that to the Brawlnagel's 4-4 mark, which includes a win over the #4 seed. 

On top of that, Big Brawny has been an Honorable Mention All American in the past, while Cochran and Washington have done jack squat. 

The only good news here is that there are twelve automatic qualification spots at this weight, and Zac has a #21 Coach's ranking and is #22 in the RPI. He should get in even if he finishes in last place. 

Still, **** you, B1G coaches! 

FUN FACT.  Zac Braunagel has had his name misspelled by Wrestlestat, the NWCA, Openmat, Trackwrestling, and even the NCAA. Intermat gets it right! The sad and funny and troubling aspect of all of this is that those folks misspell the easy name and get "Braunagel" right. What does this say about America's schools:

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  It's now been more than two years and one month since Aaron Brooks lost a college wrestling match. Until he does, he will be the favorite over anybody, even an Olympic medalist. Since that loss, the Nittany Lion has had four one-point matches, including one this year. (Parker Keckeisen, Northen Iowa). He also had a two-point win over Myles Amine during the conference slate. 

But he is also a perfect 6-0 in BTT matches. 

Brooks has the better prospects because he will face a semifinalist that he has beaten relatively easily, while Amine and Romero will have to beat on each other. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Zac Braunagel will need to string some wins together in this tournament. Like his twin brother Dhanny, and unlike his big brother, Jhoey, he is already an honorable mention All American, and those two have the opportunity to cement their legends this year. 

NOTE:  The B1G received twelve pre-allocated spots at 184, the most of any weight in the conference. Also, Zac received a #21 Coach's Ranking and an RPI of #22. 

I believe that the seeds will be different as set by the B1G coaches compared to the Intermat and Wrestlestat rankings above, so I'm not sure who Big Brawny will wrestle. There is only one "easy" match, and Kaleb Romero will get that in the first round. I expect the ILLINI might could wrestle Venz, Assad, Malczewski, Weiler or Salazar in the first round. 

That's how crazy this will be. 

Now, check out some great Brawlnagel takedowns set to opera music. I'm ******* serious:

MATT WROBLEWSKI -- 197

Here are your warriors at 197 in the Big Ten Conference:

DEVIATIONS.  I would deviate like a Peeping Tom. Max Dean ducked and didn't get his full compliment of matches. The person he ducked, Eric Schultz, ended up with a perfect conference record. Moreover, Dean has a loss in a B1G dual. I would also consider putting Cam Caffey ahead of him. He ducked nobody, is the hottest wrestler at this weight in the country, and he also finished with a perfect conference record. 

As much as I hate Thomas Penola, he should probably be ahead of Bulsak and Brucki. Finally, I'd put Michial Foy ahead of Andrew Davison and Jaron Smith. Smith has that nice win against Brucki, but his conference mark is 1-3. 

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  Again, the B1G wrestling coaches didn't listen to me. Dean was seeded ahead of Caffey. However, they got Schultz right at #1. The coaches also got Penola wrong, but I hate him, so I'm not too worried about that. They also got the Foy seed wrong. Here are the preseeds in a bracket:

Matt Wroblewski came into the season bigger and stronger. His arms and shoulders have seen bench presses, inclined and not. Yet, he got injured and then crushed in conference duals. Remember that last year, he finished 5-3 in B1G duals and received the eighth seed. 

So seeing him at #14 doesn't look or feel right. 

As long as he's fully recuperated from the injury or illness that has wrecked his season so far, he has two great opportunities in front of him. First, he has an opportunity to get to the NCAA tournament for the first time. The conference has been allocated eleven spots. 

He just has to beat out three guys! C'mon, WroboCop! You can do that. 

Second, Matt Wroblewski could easily improve on his seed in the B1G tournament more than any other wrestler. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as high as seventh. In his first match, he gets the #3 seed Cam Caffey, who he beat earlier in the season at the MSU Open. 

FUN FACT.  The ILLINI won the Big Ten Wrestling Championship in 1952. That same season, ILLINOIS finished in a tie for sixth in the country with a total of seven points. Teams that finished ahead of the Orange and Blue included Toledo, Iowa State Teachers College and Oklahoma A&M. One of the teams ILLINOIS tied with was Waynesburg. 

Indiana finished in a three-way tie for ninth with Pittsburgh and California!

Waynesburg still exists as a private school with an enrollment of approximately 2,500. They now compete at the Division Three level. Take that you stupid Yellowjackets! 

OVERALL OUTLOOK.  Four of the top five wrestlers in the country at this weight are in the Big Ten. Any of them--and also the next two--could win the conference crown in my estimation. Heck, even Myles Amine could win the conference crown at 197. 

He did it last year. 

ILLINI OUTLOOK.  Matt Wroblewski started out the season like an eraser in a bad graphics arts class, a bigger, stronger eraser, who had added muscle to his chest and arms. He had a 4-2 record with a win over Cam Caffey at the MSU Open. 

Then, either injury or illness struck, and he was out of the lineup for weeks. 

Unfortunately, he came back just in time for the majority of B1G duals, and because of conditioning or nagging illness/injury issues, he lost all of those matches, including Indiana's Nick Wilham, a guy he had beaten four times without a loss. 

Hopefully, he's had time to resolve all of those problems, as he has an opportunity. I expect the conference will be allocated between nine and eleven spots, depending on whether Gavin Hoffman, Jaron Smith and Andrew Davison make it on the Coach's ranking. If I had to guess, I'd say at least two of them do, which would mean ten pre-allocations. 

NOTE:  There is good news for Matt! The B1G received eleven pre-allocated spots from the NCAA at this weight. WroboCop did not receive a Coach's Ranking or an RPI. 

That means a likely mini-tournament between Hoffman, Davison, Smith, Michael Foy, Nick Wilham and WroboCop for the ninth, tenth and eleventh spots. The eleventh spot is likely to get a wildcard. If he's got his conditioning in order, I like his chances against that group. 

LUUUUKE LUFFMAN -- 285

Here are the heavyweight grapplers that Luke will have to beat down to win this year's Big Ten Tournament: 

DEVIATIONS.  There is a lot to deviate from these rankings, especially as it applies to a conference-only tournament. First off, Mason Parris would be my number four seed. That second loss in conference and missing a dual has to cost him. 

Secondly, Jacob Bullock would jump up to the tenth seed, pushing everybody down one. He has a better conference record and beat two of the guys ranked ahead of him! Thirdly, I would switch Wilton and Schrader. Wilton has the better conference record (even though he did lose to Gavin Hoffman of Ohio State), and Wilton also beat Schrader. 

Finally, I would give Luke Luffman the #1 seed for life, and everybody would be an automatic forfeit against him. That's because everybody loves the Luff. 

FUN FACT:  Everybody loves Luke Luffman. Down in Mexico, the children call him "El Gato Grande," which means, "Big Man Who Brings Toys on Christmas." In Denmark, they refer to Luffman as "Den Vanilje Danske," which translates to "The Vanilla Danish."

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.  The preseeds at this weight are actually quite good and logical. I don't like Luke having to wrestle Tate Orndorff in the first match, then Gable Steveson in the quarters, but that's the way the math worked out in this excruciatingly tough weight. Here are the preseeds placed into a bracket:

Luke Luffman is 1-1 versus Ohio State's Tate Orndorff. This will be their personal tie-breaker. Both of those matches were whisper close, with Orndorff winning in last year's BTT in SV. 

The top nine at this weight are crazy good. The best top eight maybe ever in the B1G conference at this weight. 

OVERALL OUTLOOK. Sure, the champion is already crowned here. He was crowned during the Olympics--or better yet--when he decided to come back to school. It will be interesting to see the other wrestlers jockeying for second, as NCAA seeds and team points are at stake. Cassioppi, Parris and Kerkvliet all want to get those second place points for their team, and they want to set the tone for next year.

Hilger and Orndorff, multiple year All Americans, are likely to be the seventh and eighth seeds at the Big Ten Tournament. That is a lot of firepower.

ILLINI OUTLOOK. Luke Luffman came along during the Golden Era of Big Ten and NCAA heavyweights. I could see somebody like Mason Parris taking the place of Tony Nelson back in the day and winning multiple championships. Greg Kerkvliet could fill the shoes of Kurt Angle or Kerry McCoy.

They have all gathered here for our pleasure.

But not Luke's. He still has to beat them. I think he's very solidly into the NCAA tournament no matter what happens here, so now he's fighting for school pride and a great seed for the Big Dance. His most likely opponent in the first round is multiple AA Tate Orndorff--a guy who looks like he won B1G championships back in the 1980s or 1990s.

Luke is 1-1 against Orndorff, with both matches being decided by a single point. His next match, of course, would be against the Olympic Champion. So, better get some wins on the backside!

NOTE: The B1G received nine pre-allocated spots from the NCAA. The good news for Luke is that he received a Coach's Ranking of 16 and an RPI of #5. He will be in no matter what, but let's get that good seed, why not?