Preview of ILLINI/Stupid Minnesota Dual (part two)

You can catch part one of the Preview here. 

TIME CAPSULE

It's 2005.

For some reason, the United States Supreme Court has to find the death penalty unconstitutional for juveniles. Who the **** was killing children? A television show called The Office debuts on NBC. 

Youtube goes online, providing important news of the world like "Dramatic Gopher":

The Chicago White Sox win the World Series over the Houston Astros. Reddit launches, and the ILLINI roll over the Minnesota Gophers 24-13. Here's the box score:

149: #12 Anton Dietzen (ILL) dec. Danny Williams (MN), 5-1	    3-0
157: #3 Alex Tirapelle (ILL) dec. C.P. Schlatter (MN), 8-3	    6-0
165: #10 Matt Nagel (MN)dec. #11 Donny Reynolds (ILL), 6-2	    6-3
174: #4 Pete Friedl (ILL) dec. Gabriel Dretsch (MN), 6-3	    9-3
184: #3 Brian Glynn (ILL) dec. #6 Roger Kish (MN), 5-3 ot	   12-3
197: #13 Tyrone Byrd (ILL) dec. Matt Koz (MN), 8-4	           15-3
Hwt: #2 Cole Konrad (MN) major dec. Mike Behnke (ILL), 13-2	   15-7
125: #2 Kyle Ott (ILL) dec. #7 Bobbe Lowe (MN), 10-7	           18-7
133: #4 Mack Reiter (MN) won by fall #3 Mark Jayne (ILL), 2:49	  18-13
141: #19 Cassio Pero (ILL) won by fall #20 Tommy Owen (MN), 5:29  24-13

MATCHUPS (cont.)

DANNY BRAUNAGEL (9-7) vs. CAEL CARLSON (16-10).  The Gopher's record is actually 12-10 against Division One wrestlers, and he's 2-3 in Big Ten duals. He has faced a pretty tough schedule, though. 

Carlson is coming off a 1-6 loss to Cam Amine; the Brawlnagel just earned a major decision over David Ferrante. The folks in Minnesota probably expected Andrew Sparks to take this spot in the lineup, but it looks like he was injured at the Southern Scuffle. There isn't much of a difference between their rankings. 

Wrestlestat.com has the Gopher winning by one point. Both had close matches with Iowa's Alex Marinelli, but both have been up and down during the season. With the ILLINI having the home mat advantage, coming off a win, showing a better record against common opponents, and being a veteran starter, I think he's the real favorite in this match. 

DJ SHANNON (5-5) vs. BAILEE O'REILLY (22-7).  That record for the Gopher appears to be correct. He's wrestled all the duals for Minnesota and four open tournaments. 

This is the second year for O'Reilly in the starting lineup. Two years ago, he wrestled at 165. He faced Danny Braunagel in the Big Ten tournament that year and lost a one-point decision. Last year, he didn't start for the Gophers but wrestled an extra match against Trey Sizemore, winning 11-4. 

Bailee is a girl's name. 

He does score a lot of points in his matches. DJ may be forced to open up to stay with him, or give up bonus points. O'Reilly has a 28% bonus rate. This would be a very opportune time for DJ to trust his beautiful offense. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a five-point win for the Gopher. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL (8-4) vs. ISAIAH SALAZAR (10-2) or SAM SKILLING (3-3).  Salazar was supposed to be the starter, but he must be injured as Skillings wrestled the last dual. Both of them are redshirt freshmen who had limited action last year in a handful of extra matches. 

Both have been injured this year, forfeiting out of tournaments. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a close win for the Brawlnagel. I suspect that if Skillings is on the mat for Minnesota, it won't be that close. Big Brawny has lost only to top ten wrestlers so far this year, while he has a win over an All American. So, for once, I agree with wrestlestat's program and see a close win over Salazar and a bigger margin against Skillings. 

MATT WROBLEWSKI (4-4) or NIKITA NEPOMNYASHCHIY (2-5) vs. MICHAEL FOY (11-8).  Lately, an undersized Nepo has seen a lot of action at 197, and that has been bad news for him in Big Ten duals. WroboCop hasn't wrestled since the Iowa dual in the middle of January. 

Foy will be a favorite against either. He can score bonus against Nepo but should have a good match with Wroblewski. The Gopher is 1-4 in his last five, but the worst wrestler he lost to was Braxton Amos, and that was a two-point match. 

This is Michael Foy's fifth year on the Minnesota roster, first year starting, and he spent his first two years at 165, then moved up to 174 for two years until beefing up to 197 this season. There are a lot of tanks at 197 in conference this year, but he's not one of them. 

Could be a very athletic match as both the ILLINI are not bruisers either. 

Foy went to Crete-Monee high school and then Harper College before transferring to Stupid Minnesota. He is the son of two-time Olympian and world medalist Michael Foy, Sr. 

LUUUUKE LUFFMAN (12-4) vs. GABLE STEVESON (7-0).  Luke hasn't had much success wrestling Steveson, but, then again, neither has Russia or Turkey. Wrestlestat.com, being generous and gentle to ILLINOIS for a change, predicts a major decision for Steveson by the score of 17-3. The two met in the dual last year with Gable scoring a quick pinfall. 

The ILLINI has made great strides in his wrestling, his confidence, his body and his aggression. Luke's duty in this match will to see if he can stay in the circle with Gable a little longer than last season. 

CONCLUSION

The ILLINI have a dual with Indiana on Sunday, so they can concentrate their preparations on Minnesota. The Gophers, on the other hand, have ILLINOIS on Friday, then Purdue on Sunday. There will be some good matchups in that Sunday dual, so Minnesota will have to take some practice time to work on their game plans for that match.

I have the ILLINI as strong favorites at 133 and 141 and slight favorites with the Brawlnagels at 165 and 184. Minnesota is a strong favorite at 149, 157, 174 and 285. They'll probably score bonus points in at least two of those matches. The Gophers are a slight favorite at 125. 

The call at 197 is hard because we don't know who'll be in the lineup for the ILLINI. Minnesota will be a strong favorite if Nepo gets the call, but I don't know what to think of Foy versus a healthy Wroblewski. I certainly want to watch that match. To win the dual, the Orange and Blue cannot afford to lose any of the matches at 133, 141, 165 and 184. 

Then, the good guys will need two of three of these things to happen: Justin Cardani getting over the hump against McKee, a guy he can beat (and a win here would secure an NCAA bid), DJ Shannon trusting his offense and his conditioning for the upset win, and/or Wroblewski getting back into the lineup and stealing a win against another athletic fellow. I think the ILLINI would need to win six matches to offset the bonus-point advantage that Minnesota is likely to have.