Preview of the ILLINI Duals with the Wisconska Cornhusgers

NOTE: Bucky Badger is (1) Running away from a fight, and (2) Not wearing anything below the waist. Ewwww! That's quite a pervy Badger. Also, the Nebraska mascot is exactly what I picture in my mind whenever I think of any Nebraska Cornhusker fan, male or female. 

WHAT:  Dual with Wisconsin

WHERE: Madison

WHEN:  Friday, February 11 at 7pm (Central) 

WHY:  We don't like no stinkin' badgers

TV/STREAMING:  BTN+

LAST TIME OUT

The ILLINI are coming off of a stomping of the Indiana Hoosiers by the score of 36-3. You can find the box score here. The Orange and Blue are 3-5 on the season. The stupid Badgers are 9-2 with wins over Buffalo (30-3), Little Rock (32-13), North Carolina (20-16), Hofstra (38-12), Northwestern (19-15), Rutgers (19-14), Minnesota (21-15), Purdue (23-12) and Maryland (39-4). Their losses are to Nebraska (12-22) and Iowa (6-29). 

Their last time out was against Iowa, but since there's nothing much to learn from that beat down, let's look at their dual with Nebraska:

Jan. 21, 2022 - #8 Wisconsin vs. #13 Nebraska	WIS-NEB
149: #8 Austin Gomez (WIS) over #4 Ridge Lovett (NEB) (Dec 4-2)	3-0
157: #5 Peyton Robb (NEB) over #27 Garrett Model (WIS) (Dec 17-11)	3-3
165: 38 Dean Hamiti (WIS) over Clayton Wilson (NEB) (Fall 1:53)	9-3
174: #5 Mikey Labriola (NEB) over #22 Andrew McNally (WIS) (MD 14-4)	9-7
184: #11 Taylor Venz (NEB) over Christopher Weiler (WIS) (Dec 7-1)	9-10
197: #3 Eric Schultz (NEB) over #22 Braxton Amos (WIS) (Dec 3-1)	9-13
285: #11 Christian Lance (NEB) over #8 Trent Hillger (WIS) (Dec 5-3)	9-16
125: #8 Eric Barnett (WIS) over Jeremiah Reno (NEB) (Dec 6-0)	12-16
133: Dominick Serrano (NEB) over #25 Kyle Burwick (WIS) (SV-1 10-8)	12-19
141: #9 Chad Red (NEB) over Joseph Zargo (WIS) (Dec 8-3)	12-22
Team rankings NWCA; Individual rankings Intermat for Jan. 18, 2022

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TIME CAPSULE

The ILLINI are 12-3 against the Badgers in their last fifteen duals. However, the ILLINI are only 1-2 in the last three. The largest margin of victory for Wisconsin has been three points. The largest margin for ILLINOIS was twenty-five. 

Let's go back to that day.

February 4, 2000 was a Friday, and it was also the day on which video game publisher Electronic Arts released The Sims, which would go on to be one of the greatest selling life simulation games in history. 

Scream 3 and Snow Day were numbers one and two at the box office. Savage Garden was on the top of the music charts with I Knew I Loved You. All of which goes to prove that, for the most part, everybody sucks and has bad taste. 

Still, there was hope in the galaxy, as the #7 ILLINI trounced the Wisconsin Badgers in a dual at Huff Hall. Check out the ILLINI bigs back then from this box score:

No. 6 Illinois 32, vs. No. 15 Wisconsin 7
Huff Hall -- Champaign, IL
Dual Started at 165-pound weight class

125 No. 12 Ryan Escobar (ILL) defeated Tony Black (WIS), 9-7
133 Dave Stoltz (ILL) defeated Brad Owens (WIS), 4-0
141 No. 8 Carl Perry (ILL) major decision Grant Hoerr (WIS), 16-2
149 No. 2 Adam Tirapelle (ILL) pinned P.J. Dowling (WIS), 1:24
157 No. 13 Cory Wallman (WIS) defeated No. 12 Griff Powell (ILL), 3-1 (ot)
165 No. 2 Don Pritzlaff (WIS) major decision No. 19 Bill Zeman (ILL), 10-0
174 Ben King (ILL) won by forfeit
184 No. 5 Nate Patrick (ILL) major decision Joe Terrill (WIS), 12-2
197 No. 11 Pat Quirk (ILL) defeated No. 13 Steve Alf (WIS), 3-2
Hwt No. 4 John Lockhart (ILL) defeated Jason Pernat (WIS), 3-2

Finishing a dual with Patrick, Quirk and Lockhart was an incredible advantage for the good guys!

ILLINOIS VS. WISCONSIN

Before we start with the matchups, let's look back at last year's dual, which was part of a triangular at the Assembly Hall (State Farm Center) with both Ohio State and the Badgers:

125: Justin Cardani (ILL) over Eric Barnett (WIS) (Dec 3-1)

133: Lucas Byrd (ILL) over Kyle Burwick (WIS) (Dec 5-0)

141: Danny Pucino (ILL) over Dominic Dentino (WIS) (Dec 10-4)

149: Michael Carr (ILL) over Drew Scharenbrock (WIS) (Dec 8-3)

157: Garrett Model (WIS) over Johnny Mologousis (ILL) (Dec 7-3)

165: Dan Braunagel (ILL) over Josh Otto (WIS) (Dec 6-2)

174: Jared Krattiger (WIS) over DJ Shannon (ILL) (Dec 6-2)

184: Christopher Weiler (WIS) over Zach Braunagel (ILL) (Dec 8-2)

197: Matt Wroblewski (ILL) over Andrew Salemme (WIS) (Dec 3-1)

HWT: Luke Luffman (ILL) over Trent Hillger (WIS) (Dec 4-3)

Illini: 21, Wisconsin: 9

That was quite a trouncing as well, with Luuuuke scoring the huuuge upset, and Danny Pucino going 2-0 on the day. 

MATCHUPS

JUSTIN CARDANI (10-7) vs. ERIC BARNETT (11-1).  These two were 1-1 against each other last season, but the scores varied widely. The ILLINI won 3-1 in the dual, while Barnett won by major decision 12-2 at the Big Ten tournament. If I had to guess, I would say the reason was water. 

Cardani won in the dual as he wrestled Barnett pretty early in the day. The Badger is a big fellow for a 125er. He must be pulling a lot of weight and didn't get time to rehydrate. At the BTT, on the other hand, Barnett got to hydrate while Cardani had to wrestle and beat the Maryland schlepper. 

This might be a good weight to start the dual, as Cardani would gain an advantage and Burwick at 133 and Gomez at 149 are stocky little fellows themselves. 

Barnett has been wrestling like the All American he is, sporting an 11-1 record with wins over Patrick McKee of Minnesota and Devin Schroder of Purdue. His lone loss is to Michael DeAugustino of Northwestern. Beyond that, though, the Badger's schedule has been pathetic. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 6-5 win for the bad guy, who has a better record against common opponents (15-15) than Cardani (16-20). This will likely be a must-win if the ILLINI are to beat Wisconsin. 

Here's Cardani beating Barnett 14-14 in the 2019 Junior United States Open:

LUCAS BYRD (16-1) vs. KYLE BURWICK (10-11).  The ILLINI has a 2-0 win streak against Burwick. In last year's dual, Lucas beat him 5-0; in this year's MSU Open, Byrd won 5-2. 

Burwick started the year out well, but in Big Ten duals, he's 2-5, and his last match was a tech fall loss to Iowa's Austin DeSanto. The Badger will fight hard, but against DeSanto, he ran out of gas and just surrendered. 

The young man in the Orange and Blue is 19-3 against the guys who gave Burwick a 9-14 record. The wrestlestat.com algorithm is predicting a 9-4 win for Byrd. I seriously doubt that Lucas gives up that many points unless this becomes a catch-and-release turkey shoot. 

The ILLINI has a gas tank that is similar to DeSanto's, so there could be bonus points for the young man who is becoming legend:

DYLAN DUNCAN (3-0) vs. JOSEPH ZARGO (11-8).  Zargo was highly recruited out of Bergen Catholic in New Jersey. He deferred enrollment for a couple of years and trained at the OTC. Here he is getting beat by Northwestern's Frankie Tal-Shahar last year at the Junior Nationals:

The Badger has taken his lumps in his first year in the lineup. On the other hand, he has two very nice wins over Purdue's Parker Filius. In his last match, he gave up a major decision to Iowa's Jaydin Eierman, who spent much of his mat time goofing around. 

Like Burwick at 133, Zargo is 2-5 in Big Ten Duals with a surprising win over Filius and a less-surprising win over Maryland. He lost to Northwestern's Tal-Shahar by one point. 

Even at 11-8, I think the Badger is a sure-fire national qualifier, and given his results against the Boilermaker, not somebody to ignore. Wrestlestat.com predicts an 8-4 victory for the ILLINI.

CHRISTIAN KANZLER (12-7) vs. ANTHONY GOMEZ (13-1).  It is so good to see Christian Kanzler, a guy who has worked hard in the room to become better, find himself on the cusp of an NCAA tournament. Also, having been injured earlier in the year, it is now good to see him without the knee brace. 

In back-to-back duals, Kanzler has beaten multiple-year national qualifiers, but he's now stepping up in quality versus the kid from Glenbard North. While at Iowa State, Gomez made it to the Round of 12. He had a big-time high school career, earning him status as the #11 overall recruit in high school. 

It will be interesting to see how he deals with being in the national wrestling spotlight after his 3-2 win over Vincent Turk (Montini) of Iowa at Carver Hawkeye Arena. There were allegations that racist derogatory terms were spewed at him. 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major decision for the Badger. Kanzler is 3-6 versus common opponents. Gomez is 7-0. 

Kanzler has recently shown that he's adept at throws, but Gomez feeds on that stuff. Maybe steer clear and wear the fellow out? That's how Josh Heil of Campbell beat Gomez in the finals of the Matmen Open. He kept his distance until Gomez shot a weakish double in overtime and didn't have the energy to stop Heil's spin-behind. Here, you can see it for yourself:

JOE ROBERTS (10-12) vs. GARRETT MODEL (11-9).  This will be a big match for the ILLINI against the guy with the perfect Wehrmacht tank commander name. General Mödel has two qualities that stand out: (1) A huge gas tank, (2) veteran experience, and (3) keen strategy in using pincher maneuvers to disrupt enemy supply lines. Strike that, General Mödel has three....

This will certainly be a test of Roberts' gas tank. 

Model will wrestle very hard for seven minutes. That played a part in his surprising upset victory over Minnesota's Brayton Lee by a 10-5 score. This is the Badger's fifth year in the lineup and fourth year starting, and he has yet to earn a trip to the NCAA tournament. 

Wrestlestat.com's algorithm indicates that a 10-8 win for Wisconsin is in the cards. I think there will be lots of points scored, although the key to beating Model is to control him and keep it a low-scoring match. 

DANNY BRAUNAGEL (11-7) vs. DEAN HAMITI (17-1).  The machine at wrestlestat.com has prognosticated a 14-2 major victory for the kid from Joliet Catholic. That holds with their earlier match at the Matmen Open, which ended as a 10-0 win for the bad guy. 

Between Belleville and Joliet here, we have five IHSA championships and one runner-up finish. As for that Matmen Open match, the Brawlnagel now has more film to scout the Badger, and, frankly, it just looked like he was throwing **** on the wall during the match in that tournament to see what would stick. Danny also might have been injured, as he was eventually injured sometime that weekend. 

The ILLINI is 5-7 against the same guys the Badger has posted a 7-1 record. After scouting Hamiti's recent loss to Iowa's Alex Marinelli, I think the ILLINI will do much better controlling the new kid on the block and defending the angles. 

DJ SHANNON (6-6) vs. ANDREW MCNALLY (7-6).  DJ got a nice confidence-building win this past weekend over Indiana's Nick South, one of their better wrestlers. Even with that loss, South has a better record than Andrew McNally, but that is a bit deceiving. 

The Badger is in his sixth year wrestling in college, having transferred from Kent State this year. He's been a three-time NCAA qualifier and, last year, he finished in the Round of 12. 

Still, if DJ puts together some of that offense he's shown in the past in matches against Chattanooga and Indiana, he can win this. In fact, this is my upset special, as Wrestlestat.com is counting on a major decision for the Badger. 

ZAC BRAUNAGEL (9-5) vs. CHRIS WEILER (8-9).  The Badger has been a three-time NCAA qualifier, finishing in the Round of 12 that first year as a Lehigh wrestler. Weiler won the only matchup between the two, 8-2, at the dual last season. This is what I wrote as a preview for that first meeting:

"Here’s another of your marquee matchups on the day. Chris Weiler is the East Coast third twin of the Brawlnagels. He has a gritty style. Gives up his legs a lot, but works his funk. The former Lehigh wrestler rides super high, often looking for a cradle. On the bottom, he loves the switch, and he’ll granby.

Weiler made it to the Round of Twelve as a redshirt freshman. He must have been injured the next year, as he didn’t compete at the NCAAs. He was a national qualifier last season. The match with Brawny will be a slugfest. Both guys will put out maximum effort, so they will tire. The last thirty seconds of the match might look like the second thirty seconds of a barroom brawl."

(emphasis added). The ILLINI got put on his back with that cradle while in a standup position. The video is here:

The Badger is no doubt a tough kid, and you must be looking for his cradle. Keep your head away from your knees and keep control of at least one hand! 

Wrestlestat.com is predicting an ILLINI win by a point. Their win percentage against common opponents is pretty close. I also think that Zac will win as he now has had the feel of Weiler and won't fall for his tricks. 

MATT WROBLEWSKI (4-6)vs. BRAXTON AMOS (14-6).  What looked like a sure-fire path to the NCAA tournament for Wrobocop has been endangered by injury or illness. He had a decent record, a win over Cam Caffey and a top thirty-three coaches' ranking. 

Now, he has to finish up the Big Ten regular season with Braxton Amos and Nebraska's Eric Schultz. Thus far, he doesn't have a dual win in conference this year, which will throat punch his seed in the Big Ten tournament. 

This is another opportunity for Matt to solidify his chances at the Big Dance. Amos has a really nice 14-6 record, but he hasn't been the wunderkind that some expected given his dominations of Fargo, high school tournaments and even on the world stage. 

It could be that he's having to cut too much weight, or at least an amount that makes him uncomfortable. In B1G duals, Amos is 3-4, with the wins coming over Maryland, Brendan Devine of Northwestern and a two-point win over Michael Foy of Minnesota. 

If Wrobocop is back in shape and can trust his condition, he can give the Badger all kinds of problems. Besides the win at 125, the ILLINI will likely need an upset at 197 or 285 to win this dual. 

LUKE LUFFMAN (13-5) vs. TRENT HILGER (13-4).  The Badger owns a 2-1 career win advantage over Luuuuke. The ILLINI win came at last year's dual in a TB 4-3 decision. Hilger got the pinfall in the NCAA tournament and won 4-0 back in 2019. 

This is the Badger's fifth year on the team and fourth year starting. He's already compiled three AA honors. 

The matchup will have B1G and NCAA seeding implications, as they both have similar records, and Luffman is 3-3 in conference duals, while Hilger is 3-4. Like his partner at 197, Wrobocop, Luffman will have two tough matches to end his conference dual season, as Christian Lance will be his opponent on Sunday. 

Very athletic, Hilger will actually get on his knees while shooting a single or double. Luke will need to make him pay for that. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 10-2 major for Wisconsin, but I think that's silly. Their record against common opposition looks like this: Luffman 18-21; Hilger 36-16. 

CONCLUSION

The Great and Mighty Oz (wrestlestat.com) predicts a 25-9 win for the Badgers. It's algorithm favors Byrd, Duncan and Zac Braunagel. I see the ILLINI as solid favorites at 133 and 141, a slight favorite at 184 given how the two have wrestled this season (and discounting that cradle from last year's dual). 

Until proven wrong--and I can be proven wrong here--I have Wisconsin as a solid favorite at 149 and 165. At every other weight, including 125, 157, 174, 197 and 285, I have the Badger as the slight favorite. 

There are, of course, thousands of known and unknown factors that will apply to the dual, including home mat advantage to Wisconsin, whether the match starts at 125, or some other weight, how much confidence has been grown inside the minds of Kanzler and Shannon, the bus trip, how the Badgers respond to their beatdown at the hands of Iowa, and on and on. 

It is entirely conceivable for the ILLINI to start off the dual with three wins from 125-141, and then how does momentum play into the dual? With fewer matches this season, are the ILLINI peaking now?

ILLINOIS VS. NEBRASKA

WHAT:  Big Ten Dual with Nebraska Cornhuskers

WHEN:  Sunday, February 13 @11:00 am (Central)

WHERE:  Bob Devaney Sports Center, Lincoln, Nebraska

WHY:  To reassert dominance over a team that is utterly evil

TV/STREAMING:  BTN

SIDENOTES

The Huskers will have home mat advantage, which means that Mark Manning can be as red-faced and imbecilic as he wants. You can expect a weird crowd because--no ****--the first five hundred fans receive a Husker cape, which, of course, is perfect for the Lincoln Symphony and Opera and for being a vampire goth kid. 

Although the ILLINI have to travel to Wisconsin for the Friday dual, then get on a plane for Nebraska for this Sunday match, the Huskers have nothing else over the weekend. 

Nebraska is 5-4 in duals this season with wins over Northwestern (23-12), Wisconsin (22-12), North Carolina (27-6), Nebraska-Kearney (45-6) and and something called Chadron State (31-9). Their four losses were to Minnesota (13-19), Purdue (15-18), Michigan (13-20) and Penn State (13-21). 

LAST YEAR

The stupid Huskers scored a 25-9 win over ILLINOIS at last year's dual at the Assembly Hall. This was the match that involved the controversial and mysterious non-back points against Chad Red. The Nebraska lineup has changed since then, but here's that box score:

25: Liam Cronin (NEB) over Justin Cardani (ILL) (Dec 4-3)

133: Lucas Byrd (ILL) over Tucker Sjomeling (NEB) (Dec 10-8)

141: Chad Red (NEB) over Dylan Duncan (ILL) (Dec 4-3)

149: Ridge Lovett (NEB) over Danny Pucino (ILL) (TF 20-5 0:00)

157: Caleb Licking (NEB) over Luke Odom (ILL) (Dec 10-4)

165: Danny Braunagel (ILL) over Peyton Robb (NEB) (Dec 9-6)

174: Mikey Labriola (NEB) over Trey Sizemore (ILL) (MD 17-6)

184: Taylor Venz (NEB) over Zac Braunagel (ILL) (MD 12-1)

197: Eric Schultz (NEB) over Matt Wroblewski (ILL) (Dec 4-1)

HWT: Luke Luffman (ILL) over Christian Lance (NEB) (Dec 4-2)

As you can see Chad Red "won" that match 4-3, but things would change later in the year. Lucas Byrd was another winner, while Danny Braunagel and Luke Luffman also got nice wins.

KEY MATCHUPS

If the match starts out at 125, I have the ILLINI favored to win the first three matches. It will be key to get bonus. At 125, for example, Jeremiah Reno is 3-11 on the year. That means Cardani needs to not only convert, but convert a lot. Back points would be nice as well. 

At 133, Dominick Serrano shows a 12-8 record, but that's because he wrestled in the Doane and Grandview Opens. Against D1, he's 4-8. He did give Chris Cannon a one-point match and beat Kyle Burwick, so he has some skills. 

At 141, we have the marquee matchup of the night with Dylan Duncan going against old foe Chad Red. It is the Husker who is leading the series 1-2, but Dylan won at the NCAA tournament when it counted. Key to the match will be the ILLINI's ability to ride Red. 

Another match the ILLINI should look forward to is at 165. Danny Braunagel has never faced Bubba Wilson, but has a 7-4 to 4-4 edge against common opponents. The 10-8 Husker is predicted to beat the Brawlnagel, probably based on the Nebraska kid's recent upset of Michigan's Cameron Amine. The ILLINI beat Peyton Robb in last year's dual with one of the sweetest ducks you'll ever see, and he can do the same here. 

At 184, brother Zac Braunagel will get another shot at Taylor Venz. Their only meeting ended in a major decision for Venz. However, the Husker is so up-and-down that I expect a competitive match here. 

Finally, another key matchup is at heavyweight. The wrestlers have each won against the other fellow. Both were close matches with Luuuuke winning by two points at the dual, while the Nebraska kid won in overtime at the B1G tournament. Christian Lance seems to be in better shape than ever, and he is getting coached by Tervel Dlagnev, so we'll see if Luffman's obvious improvements match up. 

CONCLUSION

To take the dual, the ILLINI will need to win the matches they're supposed to win, while probably also scoring bonus, and then win the matches where they're slightly favored at 141 and 165, then win at least one of the matches at 184 and 285. 

Wrestlestat.com predicts a 28-7 win for the bad guys with only Cardani and Byrd favored to win. 

Having to make weight twice over the weekend, while also traveling from Wisconsin to Nebraska will be a test of the ILLINI's Fighting Spirit. This will not be Nebraska's Senior Night. That will be next weekend against Iowa. They might overlook ILLINOIS because of that.