ILLINI Preview: The Rutgers Dual

WHAT:  ILLINOIS versus Rutgers, Big Ten Conference Dual

WHEN:  Friday, January 14 at 6:00 pm (Central)

WHERE:  Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, New Jersey

WHY:  East Coast Domination Starts Now!

TV/STREAMING:  BTN+

HISTORY:  3-1, ILLINI, all in the last 6 years

LAST MATCH:  ILLINI 29, Rutgers 6, February 7, 2020 @Rutgers

COVID RESTRICTIONS:  The Rutgers site specifically provides that all spectators must show up with either proof of vaccination or a negative PCR test within the last 72 hours, as well as a valid ID card. Masks must be worn in the facility. Only beverages are sold at concessions.

 

THE MATMEN OPEN

As you know, the ILLINI finished in fourth place at the Matmen Open without a great deal of their lineup, and with many others getting injured at the tournament. Like ILLINOIS, Rutgers had nine scoring wrestlers. The ILLINI finished with 105 points with Rutgers right behind at 94.

LAST DUAL WITH RUTGERS

The ILLINI started out on fire and never slowed down on February 7, 2020 in the RAC Center. Wins came from Cardani, Piotrowski, Duncan, Barone, both Braunagels, Gunther and Luffman.

The slight wrestlestat.com upset by Cardani over Nick Aguilar got things rolling. The evening went completely south for Rutgers when Travis Piotrowski pinned #9 Sammy Alvarez in the next match. Later, Zac Braunagel helped to close it out with a minor upset over New Jersey schoolboy legend Billy Janzer. Here’s the box score:

125: No. 21 Justin Cardani (ILL) dec. No. 17 Nicolas Aguilar, 3-2 | ILL 3, RU 0
133: No. 7 Travis Piotrowski (ILL) Fall No. 9 Sammy Alvarez (RU), 2:43 | ILL 9, RU 0
141: No. 11 Dylan Duncan (ILL) major dec. JoJo Aragona (RU), 8-0 | ILL 13, RU 0
149: Nick Santos (RU) dec. Mousa Jodeh (ILL), 8-2 | ILL 13, RU 3
157: Eric Barone (ILL) dec. Michael Van Brill (RU), 2-1 | ILL 16, RU 3
165: No. 13 Danny Braunagel (ILL) dec. Brett Donner (RU), 4-3 | ILL 19, RU 3
174: No. 14 Joey Gunther (ILL) dec. Willie Scott (RU), 1-0 | ILL 22, RU 3
184: No. 14 Zac Braunagel (ILL) TB-1 No. 12 Billy Janzer (RU), | ILL 25, RU 3
197: No. 19 Jordan Pagano (RU) dec. No. 30 Matt Wroblewski (ILL), 5-0 | ILL 25, RU 6
285: No. 25 Luke Luffman (ILL) major dec. Alex Esposito (RU), 11-3 | ILL 29, RU 6

RUTGERS’ LATEST DUAL

Rutgers brought an 11-0 record into Madison to face the Wisconsin Badgers. They lost 14-19. Wrestlestat.com had predicted a 22-10 win for Rutgers. Andre’s kiss of death!

Note that Rutgers' eleven victims on their schedule have been Bloomsburg, Clarion, Indiana, Cleveland State, Davidson, Chattanooga, North Carolina, Hofstra, Army, New Jersey City University and American. 

John Poznanski has certainly established his All American cred with his start to the year. On the other hand, at 174, AA Jackson Turley has seemed lost. Sebastian Rivera has been a bonus machine. Here is the dual box score for the Rutgers/Wisconsin match:

No. 16 Wisconsin 19, No. 12 Rutgers 14
125: 4/12/6 Eric Barnett (WISC) over 30/HM/NR Dylan Shawver (RU) by decision, 8-4; WISC leads, 3-0
133: Joseph Olivieri (RU) over 25/NR/NR Kyle Burwick (WISC) by decision, 4-3; Dual tied, 3-3
141: 4/3/3 Sebastian Rivera (RU) over 24/NR/NR Joseph Zargo (WISC) by TF, 18-3; RU leads, 8-3
149: 11/14/11 Austin Gomez (WISC) over 19/HM/NR Michael VanBrill (RU) by MD, 11-1; RU leads, 8-7
157: 33/NR/NR Garret Model (WISC) over Robert Kanniard (RU) by decision, 13-8; WISC leads, 10-8
165: 8/12/9 Dean Hamiti (WISC) over Andrew Clark (RU) by decision, 10-4; WISC leads, 13-8
174: 17/22/16 Andrew McNally (WISC) over 26/22/20 Jackson Turley (RU) by decision, 6-1; WISC leads, 16-8
184: 5/5/5 John Poznanski (RU) over 33/NR/NR Chris Weiler (WISC) by decision, 12-5; WISC leads, 16-11
197: 7/11/10 Greg Bulsak (RU) over 24/HM/NR Braxton Amos (WISC) by decision, 8-7; WISC leads, 16-14
HWT: 5/6/7 Trent Hilger (WISC) over Boone McDermott (RU) by decision, 6-3; WISC wins, 19-14

THE MATCHUPS

JUSTIN CARDANI (9-2) vs. DYLAN SHAWVER (13-3).  The ILLINI is riding high after winning the ILLINOIS Matmen Open. Shawver was actually the #1 seed in that tournament, but he ended up wrestling for fifth. Wrestlestat.com has Rutgers beating the ILLINI 25-9 at this point (but the Rutgers loss to Wisconsin hasn’t been factored in yet; Wow! Rutgers' loss to Wisconsin has now been factored in, and wrestlestat.com somehow widened the predicted win for Rutgers to 28-6. Amazing!). Eerily, wrestlestat picks Cardani to win a 5-4 match, even though that same service ranks Shawver at #26 and the ILLINI at (an underrated) #44.

The Scarlet Knight is 3-4 against common opponents. The ILLINI lightweight is 8-4 against the same guys.

This difference in the transitive property is mostly due to Cardani beating two of the same guys at the Matmen Open that Shawver lost to in overtime. Also, the ILLINI has multiple wins against Liam Cronin of Nebraska/Indiana. This is set up to be a very close match, possibly a dual-deciding match. It will also be a crucial match when it comes to Big Ten and NCAA seeding. This is Shawver’s second year starting and in the lineup for Rutgers. He can be dangerous, having upset Patrick McKee in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament last season. (Then, he lost three of the next four). 

LUCAS BYRD (10-1) vs. Joey Olivieri (15-3).  Sammy Alvarez is now listed as injured by Rutgers, so the redshirt has come off Olivieri who had a great schoolboy career in New Jersey, winning three state championships. In his first varsity match in the Wisconsin dual, the Scarlet Knight beat a tough Kyle Burwick 4-3. 

He's a very good wrestler as a true freshman. Two of his losses are to people who have been beaten by Lucas Byrd this year, though, and that includes an 0-2 loss to Micky Phillipi and a 5-7 overtime loss to Drew Mattin. 

Byrd would be favored to beat Sammy Alvarez, so he will certainly be favored to beat Alvarez's understudy. 

The ILLINI is 5-0 against the same guys who have given Olivieri a 2-2 record. The Scarlet Knight's two wins are both against Wisconsin's Kyle Burwick, who is a good, tough wrester, by one and two points. Lucas Byrd has beaten Burwick twice by three and five points. This is also one of those situations in which the ILLINI, with lighter wrestlers at the lower weights, can consider starting the dual at 125. Olivieri wrestled 138 last year in high school, and he seems to be cutting pretty hard this season. Rutgers was lucky to have one of the better backups on their roster with the absence of Sammy Alvarez, but the ILLINI will still be heavily favored. 

WE RACHAL (8-8) vs. SEBASTIAN RIVERA (14-0).  This could be a pretty tough season debut match for Mike Carr (0-0), Dylan Duncan (0-0), and a tough introduction to the starting lineup at 141 for Danny Pucino (5-2) if We doesn't get the start. The Wrestlestat machine is predicting a Rivera win by tech if Rachal starts, by major if its Pucino or Carr, and by two points if it is Dylan Duncan. 

Last season, Duncan lost to Rivera by three and six points in two matches. Interestingly enough, Mike Carr has the better record (4-1) against common opponents than the Scarlet Knight (3-2). That Carr win over Nick Lee always looks good! 

We Rachal has steadily improved during his ILLINI career. He's starting to beat NCAA qualifiers. Sebastian Rivera might be too big a bite to swallow. On the other hand, a rested and relaxed Duncan or Carr might pull off an upset if Rivera isn't ready. I think this will be an entertaining match whoever wrestles for the ILLINI. It might be tense and strategic if Carr or Duncan go, but hopefully, if one of the young-uns gets the call, they let it fly. Why not? 

CHRISTIAN KANZLER (9-4) vs. MIKE VAN BRILL (10-1).  Van Brill is coming off his first loss of the season against Wisconsin's Austin Gomez in a bit of a trouncing. (Remember that Rutgers has dualed against some really crappy teams so far this year except for the Badgers). 

Kanzler actually has the better record against common opposition (3-3) compared to the Scarlet Knight (1-4). Unfortunately, the last time we saw the ILLINI he was limping through a match at the Matmen Open. Is he even ready to wrestle again? If not, there are the same Duncan, Carr and Pucino possibilities. Danny Pucino was very game in wrestling up at 149 last year versus Nebraska. 

Van Brill finished 5-6 last season yet was still a national qualifier. He went 0-2 in the NCAA tournament, including a loss to NIU's Anthony Cheloni--somebody who Kanzler has beaten. Still, van Brill is a very dangerous wrestler with a 36% bonus rate this year. A healthy Kanzler is a great match with him, and wrestlestat.com predicts a one-point win for the bad guys.

Danny Pucino would probably be too small but would put up an heroic (and entertaining) fight. Remember that van Brill wrestled and was a national qualifier two years ago at 157, and this is his sixth year at Rutgers. I think either Duncan or Carr would be favored, though, and for once, Wrestlestat agrees with me. 

As a side note, Mike van Brill is the only person I know of who spells his own name wrong. Fascinating!

JOE ROBERTS (9-7) vs. ROBERT KANNIARD (6-6).  Wrestlestat is predicting a six-point win for the Scarlet Knight for some reason. I don't buy that. Of course, the possible fly in the ointment is that Roberts was injured at the Matmen Open. If he can't go, we might see Jake Reicin (3-6) or Luke Odom (1-2). The latter wrestled in four duals for the ILLINI last year. 

Kanniard is 1-4 in his last five matches, winning against the #98 wrestler from Indiana, but losing to the #95 fellow by five points. Yet, he only lost to Austin O'Connor by six points. He seems to give the better wrestlers a very good match. See the video below for more of that. 

This is the second year of his three-year stint at Rutgers for Kanniard to get starts in duals for the Scarlet Knights. A win here by Roberts would go a long way to securing a dual meet victory for the ILLINI. 

TO BE CONTINUED ...