Preview of Mountaineer Invitational

The ILLINI wrestling team will be at the Mountaineer Invitational all day on Sunday, November 14 in Boone, North Carolina. That is the home of the Appalachian State University Mountaineers. Here are the particulars:

WHAT:  The Mountaineer Invitational

SAY AGAIN?:  It's an eight-team dual tournament, Mr. Noseypants. 

WHEN:  Sunday, November 14 starting at 8am Central and running all day

WHERE:  Boone, North Carolina

WHO:  ILLINOIS, Arizona State, Appalachian State, Air Force, Indiana, Duke, Kent State, Gardner-Webb

VIDEO/STREAMING:  None reported so far. The Invitational is not listed on Flo, Trackwrestling or the SoCon digital network. 

FORMAT:  I don't know the exact format, but I imagine it will have to be seeded, with the top two seeds going to ILLINOIS and Arizona State. If I were in charge of seeding and setting up the Invitational, this is what it would look like:

ILLINOIS vs. Kent State.  If the ILLINI face the Golden Flashes in the first round, they should have a big win. According to wrestlestat.com, the predicted outcome is 31-3 in favor of the Orange and Blue. The lone win for Kent State is supposedly Jake Ferri by one point over Justin Cardani. The thing is, Cardani's record against common opponents is 14-6, while Ferri's is 6-12. Moreover, if you add up the common opponents record for the ILLINI for the entire team, they are 37-13, while the Golden Flashes cumulative team mark against common opponents is 14-32. Each of the projected matchups between the schools would be the first time the wrestlers have met. Apparently, the last time an ILLINI has faced Kent State was in the NCAA tournament when IMAR took out Ian Miller (who is an assistant coach at App State). 

ILLINOIS vs. App State.  If the ILLINI find themselves facing the Mountaineers in the next round, wrestlestat predicts a 21-12 ILLINI win. Of course, that is based upon Dylan Duncan, Michael Carr and Zac Braunagel being in the lineup. They did not wrestle at the MSU Open. Although We Rachal (141) and Christian Kanzler (149) had excellent outcomes at the MSU Open, the ILLINI would probably need Duncan and Carr to win this dual. The Mountaineers have an exceptional wrestler at 149--John Milner--and a darn good wrestler at 141. Against Rachal and Kanzler, App State would be favored. Expect really tight matches at 174, 157, 149 (even with Carr in the lineup), 141 (with Rachal going) and 125. The wrestlestat-predicted wins for the Mountaineers are at 125, 149 (even with Carr in the lineup), 157 and 174. The ILLINI who wins those weight classes will have a nice win to show the NCAA selection committee. Codi Russell at 125 is a three-time national qualifier. They had seven national qualifiers last year. Milner at 149 was an AA, and Thomas Flitz at 174 is a two-time NCAA qualifier. 

NOTE:  While I was typing this up, wrestlestat.com switched the 125 match's outcome. The favorite is now Cardani. It looks like his great weekend has already been noticed. Perhaps his much better record against common opponents as well? That switch makes the projected team outcome 23-9 in favor of the O and B. 

ILLINOIS vs. Arizona State.  As an optimist, I think the ILLINI end the day with a dual against the Sun Devils. I will save that preview and more for tomorrow. 

TO BE CONTINUED ...